Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 2, 2025, 11:01 UTC

Key Updates and Changes (10:31 UTC - 11:01 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN AS-90 SPG (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Kotsnews (10:31 UTC) and Старше Эдды (11:00 UTC) report that scouts from the 252nd Regiment of the 3rd Division, west of Makiivka, discovered and destroyed a British AS-90 self-propelled gun (SPG). Video evidence is provided, showing a catastrophic detonation of the ammunition.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE DESTRUCTION OF A HIGH-VALUE UKRAINIAN ASSET. The CATASTROPHIC DETONATION indicates a DIRECT HIT on the AMMUNITION STORAGE, resulting in a TOTAL LOSS. This REDUCES UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY CAPABILITY in the MAKIIVKA AREA. The video's authenticity is supported by consistent reporting across multiple sources. The involvement of the 252nd REGIMENT provides SPECIFIC UNIT INFORMATION.

2. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES ON RUSSIAN MOTORCYCLES IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (10:32 UTC) reports that drone operators of the 59th Motorized Brigade are targeting Russian motorcyclists in the Pokrovsk direction, with accompanying video evidence. The report also cites statistics from the "Офіцер+" Telegram channel, claiming significant Russian equipment losses in a 5 km wide area between Uspenivka and Nadezhdinka over the past week: 15 motorcycles, 5 ATVs/buggies, 10 cars, 3 tanks, 2 APCs, 2 IFVs.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS targeting RUSSIAN LIGHT VEHICLES. The HIGH REPORTED LOSSES suggest EFFECTIVE UKRAINIAN TACTICS and SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN VULNERABILITY to DRONE ATTACKS. The USE OF MOTORCYCLES for RECONNAISSANCE and RAPID MOVEMENT is becoming a DEFINING FEATURE of RUSSIAN TACTICS, making them HIGH-PRIORITY TARGETS. The video's authenticity is supported by clear footage of a drone strike on a motorcycle.

3. PESKOV DENIES NORD STREAM 2 RESTART TALKS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (10:33 UTC) reports that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated he has no information about negotiations to restart Nord Stream 2, contradicting a report from the Financial Times.
   • Assessment: This CREATES UNCERTAINTY about the STATUS OF NORD STREAM 2. PESKOV'S DENIAL could be TACTICAL, aimed at DISCOURAGING WESTERN PRESSURE or MAINTAINING NEGOTIATING LEVERAGE. It is also POSSIBLE that INFORMAL DISCUSSIONS are taking place WITHOUT OFFICIAL KREMLIN INVOLVEMENT.

4. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (10:36 UTC) reports heavy fighting in multiple areas near Kupyansk. Russian advances are claimed, including the liberation of Pogrebki, Orlovka, Novaya Sorochina, Viktorovka, and Nikolsky. Advances toward Malaya Lokna are also reported.
   • Assessment: This requires independent verification. Russian control is expanding.

5. RUSSIAN CLAIMED ADVANCES IN NADIYA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (10:39) reports Russian advances of up to 1km on the western bank of the Zherebets River and taking new positions in Nadiya, with coordinates provided.
   • Assessment: Requires further confirmation.

6. UK AND FRANCE TO LEAD "COALITION OF THE WILLING" FOR UKRAINE SECURITY GUARANTEES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): *DeepState (10:42) reports that the UK and France will lead a "Coalition of the Willing" to work on a plan to stop the fighting and provide security guarantees for Ukraine. This follows from the disagreement between Trump and Zelensky and will involve separate consultations.

   • Assessment: This plan can be a counterweight to Trump's initiative.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN FORCES DESTROY UKRAINIAN AS-90 SPG (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): SIGNIFICANT LOSS for UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY near MAKIIVKA.
• UKRAINIAN DRONES TARGET RUSSIAN MOTORCYCLES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONTINUED EFFECTIVE UKRAINIAN TACTICS exploiting RUSSIAN VULNERABILITY.
• UNCERTAINTY OVER NORD STREAM 2 RESTART (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): PESKOV'S DENIAL creates DOUBT about POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian control is expanding.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMED ADVANCES IN NADIYA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Requires further confirmation.
• UK AND FRANCE TO LEAD "COALITION OF THE WILLING" (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This plan can be a counterweight to Trump's initiative.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS IAEA ROTATION AT ZNPP (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): No change.

2. COUNTER RUSSIAN FIBER-OPTIC DRONES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): No change.

3. STRENGTHEN AIR DEFENSES AGAINST GUIDED BOMBS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUED ACTION): No change.

4. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): No change.

5. VERIFY UKRAINE'S WITHDRAWAL FROM PRISONER EXCHANGE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): No change.

6. INVESTIGATE REPORTS OF NORD STREAM 2 RESTART EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING): Maintain current priority. MONITOR for any FURTHER INFORMATION despite PESKOV'S DENIAL.

7. COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INFORMATION OPERATIONS): No change.

8. MONITOR RUSSIAN BORDER REGIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS ACTION): Increased vigilance due to reports of FPV drone activity and claimed advances.

9. ADDRESS GAS INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION AND RECOVERY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): No change.

10. SUPPORT UK-FRANCE PEACE PLAN INITIATIVE (HIGH PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT): ACTIVELY SUPPORT and ENGAGE with the UK-FRANCE INITIATIVE to DEVELOP A WORKABLE PLAN for CEASING HOSTILITIES and PROVIDING SECURITY GUARANTEES.

11. MITIGATE IMPACT OF CHERNOMORSK STRIKE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): No change.

12. INVESTIGATE REPORTS OF RUSSIAN MILITARY REFUSALS TO FIGHT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE GATHERING): No change. Continued monitoring and verification efforts.

13. ANALYZE OSINT REPORT ON RUSSIAN TANK LOSSES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS): No change.

14. VERIFY REPORTED STRIKE ON SLAVYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): No change.

15. LEVERAGE UK DEFENSE LOAN (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): No change.

16. MITIGATE LOSS OF AS-90 SPG (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Assess the impact of the LOSS OF THE AS-90 on UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY CAPABILITY in the MAKIIVKA AREA.
    • Redeploy available artillery assets to COMPENSATE FOR THE LOSS.
    • Request additional artillery systems from ALLIES to REPLENISH UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES.

17. ANALYZE RUSSIAN TACTICS USING LIGHT VEHICLES (HIGH PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS):

    • Analyze the reported use of motorcycles and ATVs/buggies by RUSSIAN FORCES.
    • Assess their role in RECONNAISSANCE, RAPID DEPLOYMENT, and LOGISTICS.
    • Develop and implement counter-strategies, including IMPROVED DRONE SURVEILLANCE, TARGETING PROTOCOLS, and ANTI-VEHICLE WEAPONS.

18. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): ADDITIONAL CLAIMS.

    • Use all available intelligence assets* to VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS of:
    • Advances in the Kupyansk area.
    • Advances in Nadiya.

19. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains DYNAMIC AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The DESTRUCTION OF THE UKRAINIAN AS-90 SPG is a SIGNIFICANT SETBACK, highlighting the CONTINUED THREAT posed by RUSSIAN FORCES. UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS are proving EFFECTIVE against RUSSIAN LIGHT VEHICLES, but RUSSIAN ADVANCES are REPORTED IN MULTIPLE AREAS. The UK-FRANCE INITIATIVE offers a POTENTIAL PATHWAY to DE-ESCALATION, but SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES REMAIN. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF REPORTS, and ADAPTIVE MILITARY STRATEGIES remain ESSENTIAL.