Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 1, 2025, 20:31 UTC

Changes and New Information (20:01 UTC - 20:31 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR BURLATSKOE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (20:01 UTC) reports that Russian forces, after clearing Burlatskoe, advanced over 1km towards Veseloe. Fighting is reported north of Skudnoe for Dneproenergiya, which Ukrainian forces are currently holding. Also reports ongoing battles near Privolnoe and Volnoe Pole.
   • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the NOVOPAVLOVSKOE DIRECTION. The CLAIMED ADVANCE of over 1KM towards VESELEOE is SIGNIFICANT if confirmed, and suggests INCREASING RUSSIAN PRESSURE in this area. The FIGHTING FOR DNEPROENERGIYA indicates a KEY BATTLE for control of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

2. US DEMANDS APOLOGY FROM ZELENSKY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:02 UTC), citing Bloomberg, reports that the Trump administration is demanding a public apology from Zelensky to improve relations.
   • Assessment: This FURTHER CONFIRMS THE DETERIORATING RELATIONSHIP between the US and UKRAINE under the TRUMP ADMINISTRATION. The DEMAND FOR AN APOLOGY is a SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE to RESTORING RELATIONS and POTENTIALLY SECURING FUTURE US AID.

3. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:02 UTC) reports 83 combat clashes in the last 24 hours. Russian forces launched 2 missile strikes, 76 airstrikes (including 95 guided bombs), 987 kamikaze drone attacks, and over 4000 shellings of Ukrainian positions and settlements.
     • Kharkiv Direction: Airstrikes on Okhrimivka, Makarovo, Bugaevka, and Granov.
     • Kupyansk Direction: Three unsuccessful attacks near Novosinovo and Zagrizovo.
     • Lyman Direction: 10 attacks near Novo, Novomikhailivka, Yampolivka, and towards Katerinovka (8 repelled, 2 ongoing). Airstrikes on Borova and Boguslavka.
     • Toretsk Direction: 13 attacks repelled near Krymsk, Dachnoe, Toretsk, and Dilievka. Airstrikes on Konstantinovka and Toretsk.
     • Pokrovsk Direction: 21 attacks near Nova Poltavka, Elizavetivka, Promen, Kotlyarovka, Nadezhdinka, Pokrovsk, Peschanoye, Udachnoye, Preobrazhenka, Bogdanovka, Andreevka, and Ulaklov. Airstrikes on Pokrovsk, Udachnoye, Grodivka, Novopavlovka, and Novoukrainka. Ukrainian forces reportedly eliminated 236 Russian soldiers (116 KIA), destroyed 4 vehicles, a D-30 howitzer, 14 UAVs, 8 motorcycles, 2 ATVs, 2 BTRs, a mortar, a BMP, an armored tractor, 7 UAV control antennas, and 6 communication antennas. Also damaged a tank, a BTR, a self-propelled gun, a mortar, and a motorcycle.
     • Novopavlovsk Direction: 8 attempts to break through towards Konstantinovka and Skudnoe (1 battle ongoing). Airstrikes on Komar and Shevchenko.
     • Gulyaypole Direction: 3 attacks towards Privolnoe and Charivnoe. Airstrikes on Ternovoe, Gulyaypole, and Zheleznodorozhnoe.
     • Orikhov Direction: 4 attacks repelled near Pyatikhatki, Nesteryanka, and Kamenskoe.
     • Pridneprovsk Direction: 1 ongoing offensive action.
     • Kursk Direction: 16 attacks repelled. 22 airstrikes (30 guided bombs), 383 artillery strikes (4 MLRS).
   • Assessment: This is a COMPREHENSIVE REPORT indicating INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS. The HIGH NUMBER OF AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS demonstrates CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR SUPERIORITY and INTENSIFIED EFFORTS to TARGET UKRAINIAN POSITIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN LOSSES INFLICTED ON RUSSIAN FORCES in the POKROVSK DIRECTION are SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The FIGHTING IN THE KURSK DIRECTION suggests INCREASED ACTIVITY in this area.

4. ZAPORIZHZHIA DRONE ATTACK INVESTIGATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Офіс Генерального прокурора (20:02 UTC) reports a criminal investigation into a war crime (Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine) following a drone attack on a residential building in Zaporizhzhia. A woman was injured.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the DRONE ATTACK on a RESIDENTIAL BUILDING in ZAPORIZHZHIA and the INITIATION OF A WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATION.

5. UKRAINIAN POW APPEALS TO ORBAN (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (20:03 UTC) shows a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier from the 95th Air Assault Brigade, A.A. Varga, appealing to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to send troops to Transcarpathia to protect the local population. He claims ethnic Hungarians were forcibly mobilized in 2022 and that many have died.
   • Assessment: This is LIKELY PROPAGANDA aimed at EXPLOITING ETHNIC TENSIONS and UNDERMINING UKRAINIAN UNITY. The APPEAL TO ORBAN is UNLIKELY TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT, but it REINFORCES RUSSIAN NARRATIVES about the TREATMENT OF MINORITIES in Ukraine.

6. NEW CASUALTY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • РБК-Україна (20:03 UTC) reports that a 31-year-old woman was injured in the attack on a building in Zaporizhzhia.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS the CASUALTY.

7. UNIDENTIFIED LIGHT OVER KHARKIV (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:04) shows images of an unidentified light over Kharkiv.
   • Assessment: Need more information for a proper evaluation.

8. MACRON OPEN TO DIALOGUE WITH PUTIN (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (20:27 UTC) reports that French President Macron does not rule out restoring dialogue with Putin "at the right moment."
   • Assessment: This is a STANDARD DIPLOMATIC STATEMENT and DOES NOT INDICATE ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGE IN FRENCH POLICY.

9. IAEA ROTATION THROUGH RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (20:28 UTC), citing journalist Rikard Jozwiak, reports that the IAEA may have conducted a rotation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) through Russian-occupied territory without Ukrainian approval. Rosatom reportedly stated that the rotation route went through Russian territory.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for the SAFETY AND SECURITY of the ZNPP. If confirmed, it UNDERMINES UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY and SETS A DANGEROUS PRECEDENT for INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS operating in OCCUPIED TERRITORIES. It also RAISES CONCERNS about the IMPARTIALITY of the IAEA.

10. PRO-UKRAINE PROTESTS IN VERMONT (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

    • РБК-Україна (20:18 UTC) reports that US Vice President Vance was greeted by pro-Ukrainian protests during a ski trip.
    • Assessment: Protests occurred.

11. UKRAINIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UK COMMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:11 UTC) reports that the Ukrainian Ambassador to the UK, Zaluzhnyi, said that this war is testing resilience and showing true friends.
    • Assessment: This confirms that more is to come.

12. RUSSIAN PROTECTED LOGISTICAL CORRIDOR (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (20:15) shows a video of what appears to be a protected logistical corridor.
    • Assessment: Confirms anti-drone measures.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): CLAIMED ADVANCE of over 1KM towards VESELEOE in the NOVOPAVLOVSKOE DIRECTION. FIGHTING FOR DNEPROENERGIYA. INTENSE FIGHTING across MULTIPLE FRONTS according to the UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT.
• US-UKRAINE RELATIONS DETERIORATING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): TRUMP ADMINISTRATION reportedly DEMANDS APOLOGY from ZELENSKY.
• IAEA ROTATION THROUGH RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED TERRITORY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): POTENTIAL MAJOR VIOLATION OF UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY and SERIOUS CONCERNS about the IMPARTIALITY of the IAEA. URGENT INVESTIGATION NEEDED.
• RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK ON ZAPORIZHZHIA RESIDENTIAL BUILDING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): ONE INJURED. WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATION INITIATED.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT details EXTENSIVE RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE IAEA ROTATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently seek clarification from the IAEA regarding the REPORTED ROTATION at the ZNPP through RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED TERRITORY.
   • Demand a full explanation of the CIRCUMSTANCES and JUSTIFICATION for this action.
   • Express strong opposition to any VIOLATION OF UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY and any ACTIONS that UNDERMINE THE IMPARTIALITY of the IAEA.
   • Coordinate with international partners to PRESSURE THE IAEA to ADHERE TO INTERNATIONAL LAW and RESPECT UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY.
   • Assess the potential security implications of this action for the ZNPP.

2. ADDRESS US-UKRAINE RELATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Carefully consider the DEMAND FOR AN APOLOGY from ZELENSKY.
   • Assess the potential benefits and drawbacks of ISSUING AN APOLOGY.
   • Explore alternative diplomatic options for IMPROVING RELATIONS with the US.
   • Prioritize securing continued US military and financial aid, while AVOIDING ACTIONS that could FURTHER DAMAGE UKRAINE'S STANDING.

3. RESPOND TO CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in AREAS OF INTENSE FIGHTING, particularly in the NOVOPAVLOVSKOE DIRECTION.
   • Prioritize the defense of critical infrastructure, such as DNEPROENERGIYA.
   • Continue to inflict casualties on Russian forces and DISRUPT THEIR ADVANCE.
   • Maintain high readiness of air defense systems to COUNTER RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS.

4. ADDRESS ZAPORIZHZHIA ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue to provide assistance to AFFECTED CIVILIANS.
   • Thoroughly investigate the CIRCUMSTANCES of the DRONE ATTACK and COLLECT EVIDENCE for the WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATION.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue to expose and debunk Russian disinformation campaigns, including the APPEAL BY THE UKRAINIAN POW TO ORBAN.

6. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains CRITICAL. The REPORTED IAEA ROTATION THROUGH RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED TERRITORY is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT with POTENTIALLY GRAVE CONSEQUENCES. The DETERIORATING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE US and CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS add to the URGENCY AND COMPLEXITY of the situation. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on MULTIPLE FRONTS.