Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: March 1, 2025, 13:31 UTC

Changes and New Information (13:01 UTC - 13:31 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN ADVANCE, SKUDNOE AND BURLATSKOE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Multiple Russian Sources (Dva Mayora, Poddubny, Voenkor Kotenok) report, and the Ukrainian General Staff map confirms, that Russian forces of the Vostok group have CAPTURED the settlements of SKUDNOE and BURLATSKOE in the Donetsk Oblast. This is a MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE and confirms prior reports and warnings.
   • Assessment: This is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. The loss of these settlements represents a SIGNIFICANT SETBACK for Ukrainian forces and indicates a BREAKTHROUGH in the Ukrainian defensive line west of Velyka Novosilka.

2. AIR ALARM IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration (11:34 UTC) issued an air raid alert for the Zaporizhzhia region. Multiple images were posted showing damage to civilian infrastructure, including roofs and an ambulance. The alert was followed by reports of damage to private houses and vehicles, but no casualties (11:00 UTC).
   • Assessment: While the alert was brief, the reported damage confirms CONTINUED RUSSIAN STRIKES in the region, targeting CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE.

3. RUSSIAN STRIKES, DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • RBC-Ukraine (12:30 UTC) reports that Russia dropped 28 bombs on Donetsk Oblast in the past 24 hours, killing four civilians and injuring six. 174 civilian objects were damaged, including 119 residential buildings.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AND INTENSE RUSSIAN BOMBARDMENT of CIVILIAN AREAS, causing SIGNIFICANT CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCE NEAR NOVENKOE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Slivochnyy Kapriz (11:58 UTC) reports active combat operations near Sudzha and Russian forces shelling Ukrainian positions near Novenkoe, with footage supposedly showing the attack.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE on the KURSK/SUMY BORDER, reinforcing previous reports of a potential Russian offensive in this area. This claim REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

5. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE WARNINGS, BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Ukrainian Air Force (13:11 UTC) issued a warning about the threat of ballistic missile use from Kursk, in areas where an air alert has been declared. A second warning (13:12 UTC) reported a high-speed target heading towards Dnipro from the north.
   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (13:11 UTC) reported ballistics towards Dnipro.
   • Assessment: This is an IMMEDIATE AND EXTREME THREAT. Ballistic missiles are DIFFICULT TO INTERCEPT and pose a MAJOR DANGER to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.

6. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN DRONE CONTROL CENTER DESTRUCTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Voin DV (09:30 UTC) claimed that drone operators of the 36th Army of the Vostok group had destroyed a Ukrainian drone control center in the South Donetsk direction.
• Assessment: Potentially important tactical gain, needs to be verified.

7. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT LOSSES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

• Poddubny (10:37 UTC) claims that the "Vostok" group of troops destroyed dozens of Ukrainian military equipment, including 14 tanks, in February, in areas of Novoselka, Burlatskoe, Dneproenergiya, and Constantinople.

• Colonelcassad (12:27) reported damage to Ukrainian troops in various locations.

  • Assessment: Claims require independent verification.

8. UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF ANTI-WAR DEMONSTRATIONS IN BERLIN (LOW PRIORITY):

• ASTRA (12:26), Operativny ZSU (13:12), Tsaplienko_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:19), and Alex Parker Returns (12:34, 12:38) have reported demonstrations and acts of protests against the war, or against Putin.
• Assessment: Demonstrations may reflect the current state of morale and propaganda.

9. BALTIC STATES NOT INVITED TO LONDON SUMMIT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

• Operativny ZSU (12:26) and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (12:59) reported that the Baltic states were not invited to the London summit.
  • Assessment: This could have a relevant impact in the relations of the involved parties.

10. RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN BLINDAZH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• TASS (12:42 UTC) reports that Russian "Sever" group forces struck a Ukrainian blindage (dugout) with an FPV drone in the Kharkiv region.
• Assessment: Another indication of tactical drone usage; requires verification.

11. RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROY "BABY YAGA" DRONE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Voin DV (13:30 UTC) reported that operators of the 38th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade destroyed an Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone.
  • Assessment: Potentially significant tactical loss for Ukrainian forces.

12. RUSSIAN REPORTS ON ZELENSKY-TRUMP MEETING FALLOUT (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

    • Basurin o Glavnom (08:07 UTC) reported statements made by Zelensky after his meeting with Trump.
    • Voin DV (10:29 UTC) reported that Trump was mocking Zelensky during their meeting. * Assessment: This could have a relevant impact in diplomatic efforts.

13. RUSSIAN SOURCE REPORTS AFTERMATH OF STRIKES IN ANDREEVKA-KLEVTSOVO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad (12:37 UTC) reported the destruction of the temporary location for the Ukrainian 32nd brigade, as well as many vehicles.
  • Assessment: Requires verification.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN FORCES CAPTURE SKUDNOE AND BURLATSKOE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This represents a MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE and a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN SETBACK, confirming a breakthrough in the Ukrainian defensive line.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT TO DNIPRO (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): IMMEDIATE THREAT of ballistic missile attack on Dnipro, posing a SEVERE DANGER to CIVILIAN POPULATIONS and CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN STRIKES AND BOMBARDMENT, CIVILIAN CASUALTIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKES in ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DONETSK OBLASTS, causing CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE to RESIDENTIAL AREAS.
• RUSSIAN PRESSURE ON KURSK/SUMY BORDER CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Claims of continued Russian operations near Sudzha and Novenkoe, requiring URGENT VERIFICATION.
• CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Both sides continue to report drone strikes.
• US-UKRAINE RELATIONS DETERIORATING (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This remains a CRITICAL ISSUE with POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES for Ukraine.
• RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA CONTINUES (LOW PRIORITY): Russian sources continue to make claims of gains and downplay losses, REQUIRING CAREFUL VERIFICATION.

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE RESPONSE TO BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Issue IMMEDIATE PUBLIC WARNINGS in DNIPRO and all areas under threat.
   • Activate ALL AVAILABLE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS to INTERCEPT INCOMING MISSILES.
   • Prepare for potential mass casualty events. Mobilize medical resources and PREPARE EVACUATION PLANS if necessary.
   • Increase surveillance near Kursk, where the attacks are reported to originate from.

2. REINFORCE DEFENSES IN DONETSK OBLAST, ADDRESS BREAKTHROUGH (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • IMMEDIATELY DEPLOY reserve forces to the area west of Velyka Novosilka to CONTAIN THE RUSSIAN ADVANCE following the capture of Skudnoe and Burlatskoe.
   • Conduct a RAPID ASSESSMENT of the VULNERABILITIES in the Ukrainian defensive line that led to this breakthrough.
   • Develop a plan to RETAKE THE LOST TERRITORY or, at a minimum, ESTABLISH A NEW, STABLE DEFENSIVE LINE.

3. URGENTLY INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN CLAIMS IN KURSK/SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS to VERIFY the reported Russian advance near Sudzha and Novenkoe.
   • Assess the scale and scope of any Russian incursion.
   • Prepare for potential further Russian advances in this region. Reinforce defenses as needed.

4. ADDRESS US-UKRAINE RELATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):

   • Continue HIGH-LEVEL DIPLOMATIC ENGAGEMENT with the US to CLARIFY THE US POSITION, REITERATE UKRAINIAN NEEDS, and SEEK REASSURANCES OF CONTINUED SUPPORT.
   • Explore alternative sources of military and financial aid to MITIGATE THE IMPACT of any potential reduction in US assistance.

5. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIRSTRIKES AND DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Maintain MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS across ALL POTENTIALLY THREATENED AREAS.
   • Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • Increase surveillance and defensive actions around Zaporizhzhia.

6. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Actively counter Russian disinformation campaigns, HIGHLIGHTING RUSSIAN ATROCITIES and EMPHASIZING UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE.
   • Provide truthful reporting about the situation, including losses.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is now EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY DETERIORATING. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE in DONETSK OBLAST, coupled with the IMMEDIATE THREAT OF BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS, represents a MAJOR ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT. The CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE on MULTIPLE FRONTS and the UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING US SUPPORT create a PERILOUS SITUATION for Ukraine. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS to CONTAIN THE RUSSIAN ADVANCES, PROTECT CIVILIAN POPULATIONS, and SECURE THE NECESSARY RESOURCES to CONTINUE THE DEFENSE. The POTENTIAL FOR A COLLAPSE OF THE UKRAINIAN WAR EFFORT remains VERY HIGH.