Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 15:53 UTC

Changes and New Information (15:24 UTC - 15:53 UTC)

1. ZAPORIZHZHIA PLATFORM COOPERATION REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (15:25 UTC) reports on the "Zaporizhzhia Platform of Cooperation" meeting, highlighting collaboration between local authorities, military, businesses, and volunteers.
   • Assessment: This report emphasizes CIVIL-MILITARY COOPERATION in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. It highlights STRONG SUPPORT FOR THE MILITARY from the regional administration, including provision of MATERIAL, TRANSPORT, AND COMBAT ASSETS. The focus on REBUILDING AND DEVELOPMENT alongside military operations demonstrates RESILIENCE AND A LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE. The report also indicates effective information gathering and strategic decisions to maintain civilian morale.

2. EMERGENCY POWER OUTAGES IN KYIV, KYIV OBLAST, AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (15:26 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (15:39 UTC) report emergency power outages in KYIV, KYIV OBLAST, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST ordered by UKRENERGO. РБК-Україна (15:42) adds CHERKASY OBLAST.
   • Assessment: This confirms SIGNIFICANT DISRUPTIONS TO ENERGY SUPPLY in MULTIPLE REGIONS. The outages are likely due to DAMAGE TO ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE caused by RUSSIAN ATTACKS. This impacts CIVILIAN LIFE and MILITARY OPERATIONS, affecting COMMUNICATIONS, LOGISTICS, and COMMAND AND CONTROL.

3. AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (15:27 UTC) announces an AIR RAID ALERT for ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
   • Assessment: This indicates an IMMINENT THREAT of RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS in the region. CIVILIANS ARE URGED TO TAKE SHELTER.

4. UKRAINIAN FORCES NEUTRALIZE ENEMY IN VELIKA NOVOSILKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (15:27 UTC) reports that soldiers of the 1ST BATTALION OF THE 31ST BRIGADE are engaging enemy forces near VELIKA NOVOSILKA. The video shows attacks on small enemy groups.
   • Assessment: This confirms ONGOING FIGHTING near VELIKA NOVOSILKA. Ukrainian forces are employing DRONES FOR RECONNAISSANCE AND ATTACKS. The focus on SMALL ENEMY GROUPS suggests INFILTRATION TACTICS by Russian forces.

5. RUSSIAN FORCES ADVANCE IN THE KUPIANSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Басурин о главном (15:29 UTC) reports Russian advances near TOPOLEY, fighting near STROIVKA, and clearing operations on the left bank of the OSKOL RIVER near GOLUBOVKA and KUCHEROVKA. Claims are made of pushing Ukrainian forces out of STEPNA NOVOSILOVKA west of IVANOVKA.
   • Assessment: This requires URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KUPIANSK DIRECTION. The focus on KEY LOCATIONS like TOPOLEY, STROIVKA, and STEPNA NOVOSILOVKA suggests an attempt to ENCIRCLE UKRAINIAN FORCES.

6. THREAT OF BALLISTIC WEAPONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:29, 15:33 UTC) warns of a BALLISTIC WEAPON THREAT in areas where air raid alerts are active, specifically KIROVOHRAD, CHERKASY, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS.
   • Assessment: This indicates a HIGH RISK OF MISSILE ATTACKS using BALLISTIC WEAPONS. CIVILIANS ARE URGED TO TAKE SHELTER.

7. RUSSIAN FORCES DESTROY UKRAINIAN ARMORED VEHICLE NEAR STEPOVE, ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (15:42) reports that Russian drone operators destroyed a US-supplied MaxxPro armored vehicle.
   • Assessment: Confirmed the destruction of a MaxxPro.

Updated Situation Summary

• EMERGENCY POWER OUTAGES IN MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): KYIV, KYIV OBLAST, DNIPROPETROVSK, and CHERKASY OBLASTS are experiencing EMERGENCY POWER OUTAGES, likely due to RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
• AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): An IMMINENT THREAT of RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS exists in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
• THREAT OF BALLISTIC WEAPONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A HIGH RISK OF MISSILE ATTACKS using BALLISTIC WEAPONS exists in KIROVOHRAD, CHERKASY, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS.
• ONGOING FIGHTING NEAR VELIKA NOVOSILKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian forces are engaging SMALL ENEMY GROUPS using DRONES.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KUPIANSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Reports of SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES near TOPOLEY, STROIVKA, and STEPNA NOVOSILOVKA REQUIRE URGENT CONFIRMATION.
• CIVIL-MILITARY COOPERATION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Strong collaboration between authorities and the military, with a focus on REBUILDING AND RESILIENCE.
• RUSSIAN FORCES DESTROY UKRAINIAN ARMORED VEHICLE NEAR STEPOVE, ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): CONFIRMED the destruction of a US-SUPPLIED MAXXPRO ARMORED VEHICLE.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS POWER OUTAGES AND REINFORCE AIR DEFENSES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize restoration of power in KYIV, KYIV OBLAST, DNIPROPETROVSK, and CHERKASY OBLASTS.
   • Deploy repair crews to DAMAGED INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • Reinforce air defenses in AFFECTED AREAS and AREAS UNDER BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT.
   • Issue warnings to civilians and ENSURE SHELTERS ARE ACCESSIBLE.

2. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KUPIANSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE reported Russian advances near TOPOLEY, STROIVKA, and STEPNA NOVOSILOVKA.
   • Assess the current disposition of forces in the area and DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF RUSSIAN CONTROL.
   • Prepare for potential Ukrainian counterattacks or REINFORCEMENTS to the area.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Maintain HIGH ALERT status for air defense systems in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
   • Prioritize detection and interception of any incoming threats.
   • Issue warnings to civilians and ENSURE SHELTERS ARE ACCESSIBLE.

4. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The EMERGENCY POWER OUTAGES across MULTIPLE REGIONS, the THREAT OF BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACKS, and the CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KUPIANSK DIRECTION represent MAJOR CONCERNS requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, ACCURATE ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE are ESSENTIAL.