Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 14:23 UTC
Changes and New Information (13:53 UTC - 14:23 UTC)
INCREASED NATO ACTIVITY IN THE BLACK SEA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Рыбарь (13:54 UTC) reports unusual activity by a US Navy P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine warfare aircraft in the southeastern Black Sea, a region it hasn't patrolled in the last three years. The aircraft circled north of Trabzon, Turkey, before returning. Рыбарь also reports an RQ-4B Global Hawk drone heading towards the Black Sea from Sigonella airbase, and another P-8A is en route to replace the returning one.
Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TENSIONS in the BLACK SEA REGION. The unusual P-8A flight path suggests EXPANDED SURVEILLANCE OPERATIONS, possibly targeting RUSSIAN NAVAL ASSETS, including SUBMARINES. The deployment of an RQ-4B and a second P-8A indicates a SUSTAINED AND INTENSIFIED SURVEILLANCE EFFORT. This could be in response to INCREASED RUSSIAN NAVAL ACTIVITY, intelligence suggesting a POTENTIAL THREAT, or a SHOW OF FORCE by NATO. The use of BUOYS by the P-8A to COLLECT INFORMATION is a KEY DETAIL.
RUSSIAN SU-34 STRIKE IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
ТАСС (14:16 UTC) reports a Russian Su-34 strike on a Ukrainian strongpoint and personnel in Kursk Oblast. Video provided.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY bordering Ukraine. This is SIGNIFICANT and FURTHER ESCALATES the situation in the KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION. The strike SUPPORTS previous reports of FIGHTING IN THE AREA, but DOES NOT CLARIFY the EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN PRESENCE or the NATURE OF THE CONFLICT (cross-border raid, incursion, or other). The use of an Su-34 suggests a HIGH-VALUE TARGET.
REPORTED CAR BOMBING IN MARIUPOL TARGETING FSB (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
РБК-Україна (14:21 UTC) reports a car bombing in Mariupol targeting an FSB officer, attributed to the "Mariupol Resistance." Video provided.
Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RESISTANCE ACTIVITY in RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED MARIUPOL. If confirmed, the targeting of an FSB OFFICER represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and a MAJOR SUCCESS for the RESISTANCE. The reported MASS DETENTIONS by Russian forces indicate a HEIGHTENED SECURITY RESPONSE. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF SITUATION REPORT (16:00 LOCAL TIME / 14:00 UTC) (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (14:03 UTC) provides a detailed situation report:
Total combat engagements: 60.
Shelling in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts.
One attempted assault near Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast (repelled).
One attack near Ivanivka, Lyman direction (repelled).
Two attacks near Bilohorivka and Verkhnokamyanske, Siversk direction (one ongoing).
Two attacks near Orikhovo-Vasylivka, Kramatorsk direction (ongoing).
12 engagements near Krymske, Dachne, Toretsk, and Leonidivka, Toretsk direction (four ongoing).
15 attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces near Yelyzavetivka, Promen, Lysivka, Novoukrainka, Pishchane, Kotlyne, Nadiivka, and Andriivka, Pokrovsk direction (12 repelled, three ongoing). KAB strikes on Zvirove and Leontovychi.
Six attacks near Kostyantynopil, Novopavlivka direction.
Two attacks near Pryvilne and Rivnopil, Huliaipole direction (one ongoing). KAB strikes on Sichneve and Zaliznychne; unguided rockets on Huliaipole.
Three engagements ongoing in Orikhiv direction (one repelled); attempts to advance near Pyatykhatky and Kamyanske, with air support.
Kursk direction: Four attacks repelled, three ongoing; ten airstrikes (14 KABs), 333 artillery strikes.
No active offensive actions in Kupiansk and Prydniprovsk directions.
Assessment: This provides a COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW of ACTIVE COMBAT ZONES. The HIGHEST INTENSITY FIGHTING is reported in the TORETSK and POKROVSK DIRECTIONS. The report CONFIRMS ONGOING FIGHTING in KURSK OBLAST, with SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN AIR AND ARTILLERY ACTIVITY.
STERNENKO (14:03 UTC) reports a drone strike by "Flying Skull" on a Russian soldier feigning death on Pokrovsk direction.
Assessment: This shows continued use of drone warfare on specific individuals.
DRAFT EU COMMUNIQUE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (13:56) reports that, on March 6, the EU will discuss a communique. The points of emphasis are:
No negotiations concerning Ukraine without Ukraine.
No negotiations about European security without Europe.
A comprehensive peace agreement is required for a ceasefire.
The agreement must contain reliable security guarantees for Ukraine.
The EU is ready to give comprehensive support to Ukraine for the strongest possible position in negotiations.
Assessment: This reinforces the EU's commitment to Ukraine.
Updated Situation Summary
HEIGHTENED TENSIONS IN BLACK SEA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):UNUSUAL US Navy P-8A patrol and deployment of RQ-4B drone suggest INTENSIFIED SURVEILLANCE of RUSSIAN NAVAL ASSETS.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Su-34 strike in KURSK OBLASTCONFIRMS FIGHTING and ESCALATES the situation in the BORDER REGION.
REPORTED CAR BOMBING IN MARIUPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):POTENTIAL RESISTANCE ATTACK targeting FSB OFFICER. VERIFICATION NEEDED.
INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian General Staff reports 60 COMBAT ENGAGEMENTS, with HIGHEST INTENSITY in TORETSK and POKROVSK DIRECTIONS. CONFIRMS ONGOING FIGHTING in KURSK OBLAST.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MONITOR BLACK SEA ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather additional intelligence on the US NAVY SURVEILLANCE OPERATIONS in the BLACK SEA.
Assess the potential targets of these operations (Russian naval vessels, submarines, electronic warfare systems).
Evaluate the risk of ESCALATION or MISCALCULATION in the region.
Coordinate with NATO allies to MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS.
CLARIFY SITUATION IN KURSK/SUMY BORDER REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Continue to prioritize information gathering to DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF UKRAINIAN PRESENCE within RUSSIAN TERRITORY.
Assess the nature of the conflict (cross-border raids, incursion, insurgency).
Prepare for potential escalation and REINFORCE DEFENSES in the region.
VERIFY MARIUPOL CAR BOMBING (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Attempt to confirm the report through MULTIPLE SOURCES, including HUMINT, SIGINT, and OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE.
Assess the credibility of the "Mariupol Resistance" claim.
Evaluate the potential impact of this attack on RUSSIAN SECURITY FORCES in OCCUPIED TERRITORIES.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The HEIGHTENED TENSIONS IN THE BLACK SEA, the CONFIRMED RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTION WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY, the REPORTED CAR BOMBING IN MARIUPOL, and the INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, ACCURATE ANALYSIS, AND DECISIVE ACTION are CRITICAL.
