Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 28, 2025, 04:53 UTC
Changes and New Information (04:23 UTC - 04:53 UTC)
REPORTED ABSENCE OF RUSSIAN WARSHIPS IN BLACK AND AZOV SEAS (LOW PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
РБК-Україна (04:24:01) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (04:31:37) report the absence of Russian warships in the Black and Azov Seas. The Ukrainian Navy claims this. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also reports 4 enemy ships in the Mediterranean Sea, 3 of which are Kalibr missile carriers with a total salvo of up to 26 missiles.
Assessment: This information, if true, is HIGHLY UNUSUAL. It's POSSIBLE, but UNLIKELY, that Russia has COMPLETELY WITHDRAWN its naval forces from these areas. This could be due to MAINTENANCE, REPOSITIONING, OR A DELIBERATE DECEPTION TACTIC. It requires INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION through SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OTHER INTELLIGENCE SOURCES. It's MORE LIKELY that this is MISINFORMATION or a TEMPORARY SITUATION. The presence of Russian ships in the Mediterranean, particularly Kalibr carriers, remains a SIGNIFICANT THREAT. The report also details Kerch Strait traffic, with 13 vessels moving towards the Azov Sea (7 from the Bosphorus) and 2 towards the Black Sea (1 continuing towards the Bosphorus). This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN LOGISTICAL ACTIVITY.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Два майора (04:26:49) reports official confirmation of the liberation of Nikol'skii and surrounding areas. They also mention previous liberation of Pogrebki, Maryevka, and Orlovka (north of Nikol'skii) and report successes in the eastern part of Lebedevka (south of Nikol'skii). A map is included.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in Kursk Oblast. The OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION and MULTIPLE SOURCES increase the RELIABILITY of this information. The map provided by Два майора needs CAREFUL ANALYSIS to determine the EXTENT OF THE ADVANCES and their STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS. The reported successes in Lebedevka are SIGNIFICANT, suggesting a CONTINUED RUSSIAN PUSH in this area. This corroborates, with more specifics, the previous report by Дневник Десантника regarding the 5km maneuver near Lebedevka.
REITERATED RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (04:27:56) reiterates the Ministry of Defense report: 22 Ukrainian UAVs intercepted/destroyed overnight (8 Oryol, 7 Kursk, 4 Bryansk, 1 Smolensk, 2 Krasnodar).
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS and RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY. No new information is provided.
REPORTED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACTIONS NEAR VELIKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (04:31:01) reports Russian forces advancing towards the outskirts of Skudnoe and Burlatskoe (south of Velika Novoselka) over two days. Claims battles are beginning for both settlements. Also reports ongoing battles in the eastern part of Konstantynopol, with Russian forces storming buildings. Maps are included.
Assessment: This report suggests INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION. The claimed advances towards Skudnoe and Burlatskoe, if confirmed, represent SIGNIFICANT GAINS for Russian forces. The reported fighting in Konstantynopol indicates CONTINUED EFFORTS TO ADVANCE in this area. This information REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION through INDEPENDENT SOURCES AND INTELLIGENCE GATHERING.
DAMAGED RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT IN BELGOROD OBLAST (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ASTRA (04:42:39) reported that 5 units of Russian Ministry of Defense equipment were damaged as a result of shelling in the village of Rakitnoe, Belgorod region, on February 26. No casualties were reported.
Assessment: This attack happened two days ago, and is therefore not an active battle. It does, however, prove Ukrainian forces have the range to attack Belgorod, and could have an effect on planning if they decide to continue these attacks.
FSB CLAIMS TO HAVE PREVENTED TERRORIST ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
ТАСС (04:45:17), ТАСС (04:45:37), ТАСС (04:46:20), Два майора (04:46:59) reported that the FSB prevented a terrorist attack in Moscow against Crimean Metropolitan Tikhon, prepared by Ukrainian military intelligence.
Assessment: The FSB arrested a Russian and a Ukrainian citizen who were recruited in 2024 by a Ukrainian military intelligence officer, and obtained a bomb through a cache. The detainees have reportedly confessed and planned to leave Russia with forged Ukrainian passports. Requires verification by Independent Sources.
Updated Situation Summary
RUSSIAN FORCES FACE CRITICAL THERMAL IMAGER SHORTAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No change).
CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No change).
RUSSIA INTRODUCES NEW ROBOTIC PLATFORM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): (No change).
UKRAINIAN PREPARATION FOR PROLONGED WAR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): (No change).
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple sources confirm Russian gains, including official confirmation.
REPORTED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACTIONS NEAR VELIKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of advances towards Skudnoe and Burlatskoe require urgent verification.
REPORTED ABSENCE OF RUSSIAN WARSHIPS IN BLACK AND AZOV SEAS (LOW PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Highly unusual and requires independent verification.
ZELENSKY-TRUMP MEETING PLANNED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): (No change).
MASSIVE, ONGOING DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No change).
MAJOR DRONE ATTACK ON CRIMEA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): (No change).
NEW RUSSIAN DRONES IN SUMY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): (No change).
RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KAMIANSKE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): (No change).
US-UKRAINE MINERAL AGREEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): (No change).
RUSSIAN-CHINESE TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No change). Shoigu and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi began talks.
LAVROV RULES OUT CEASEFIRE ON CURRENT LINES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No change).
TRUMP: NO NEW U.S. SECURITY GUARANTEES FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): (No change).
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS RUSSIAN THERMAL IMAGER SHORTAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, COUNTERMEASURES): (No change).
CONTINUE AND EXPAND DRONE ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS): (No change).
ASSESS AND COUNTER NEW RUSSIAN ROBOTIC PLATFORM (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE AND COUNTERMEASURES): (No change).
MONITOR AND RESPOND TO UKRAINIAN PREPARATIONS FOR PROLONGED WAR (HIGH PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY): (No change).
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACTIONS NEAR VELIKA NOVOSELKA (HIGH PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE AND DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS):
Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported advances towards Skudnoe and Burlatskoe.
Assess the impact on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in the area.
Prepare for potential counter-offensives or REINFORCEMENTS if necessary.
Reinforce defenses in the VICINITY OF VELIKA NOVOSELKA and other POTENTIAL TARGET AREAS.
VERIFY REPORTED ABSENCE OF RUSSIAN WARSHIPS (HIGH PRIORITY, INTELLIGENCE):
Utilize satellite imagery and other intelligence sources to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported absence of Russian warships in the Black and Azov Seas.
Assess the reasons for any confirmed absence (maintenance, repositioning, deception).
Maintain vigilance regarding the RUSSIAN NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE MEDITERRANEAN.
PREPARE FOR ZELENSKY-TRUMP MEETING (EXTREME PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC AND INTELLIGENCE): (No change).
INVESTIGATE UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS ATROCITIES ALLEGATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY): (No change).
VERIFY REPORTED FSB CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY):
Gather intelligence on the ALLEGED TERRORIST PLOT against Metropolitan Tikhon.
Assess the credibility of the FSB's CLAIMS and POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN INVOLVEMENT.
Prepare for potential disinformation campaigns related to the incident.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The RUSSIAN THERMAL IMAGER SHORTAGE remains a SIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST and REPORTED OFFENSIVE ACTIONS NEAR VELIKA NOVOSELKA require IMMEDIATE ATTENTION AND RESPONSE. The REPORTED ABSENCE OF RUSSIAN WARSHIPS needs URGENT VERIFICATION. The POTENTIAL ZELENSKY-TRUMP MEETING, UKRAINIAN PREPARATIONS FOR PROLONGED WAR, and CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS remain CRITICAL FACTORS.
