Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 27, 2025, 18:23 UTC

Changes and New Information (17:39 UTC - 18:23 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED DRONE ATTACKS, KHARKIV AND SUMY OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:45 UTC) reports a drone threat in Kharkiv Oblast, moving southeast from the northwest.
   • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (18:15 UTC) confirms drone strikes in Kharkiv Oblast, urging residents to stay in shelters.
   • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (18:17 UTC) reports impacts in the suburbs of Kharkiv.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:22 UTC) reports a drone threat to Sumy, approaching from the southeast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:23 UTC) adds a threat from the north for Sumy.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING AND EXPANDING DRONE ATTACKS. The reports of IMPACTS IN KHARKIV are PARTICULARLY CONCERNING. The DUAL THREAT to SUMY from both the SOUTHEAST AND NORTH is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT, further supporting the assessment of a POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE in the KURSK/SUMY REGION.

2. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE, KAMENSKOE-PYATIHATKI (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (18:21 UTC) reports positional battles near Kamenskoe, with Russian forces advancing over 1 km towards Pyatihatki and occupying new positions in the village. They claim Ukrainian drone attacks on the southern part of the settlement.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE on the ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT. The reported ADVANCE INTO PYATIHATKI and OCCUPATION OF NEW POSITIONS are SIGNIFICANT and REQUIRE VERIFICATION.

3. TRUMP COMMENTS ON PEACE DEAL, NATO, AND MINERALS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:08 UTC) quotes Trump stating that securing safety in Ukraine is easy, but making a peace deal is difficult. He does not like how the EU treats the US and its companies, and will have additional tariffs. He claims that a mineral deal will support Ukraine. He does not think Putin will invade again if a peace deal is signed.
   • ТАСС (18:16 UTC) reports Trump confirming he will sign a deal with Zelensky regarding Ukrainian rare-earth elements.
   • ASTRA (18:18 UTC) shares a video of Trump claiming he can broker a peace deal.
   • ТАСС (18:18 UTC) reported that Ukraine is forbidden from entering NATO.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:18 UTC) reports Trump saying he will try to return as much territory as possible to Ukraine, but there will be no entry to NATO.
   • РБК-Україна (18:20 UTC) quotes Trump saying the US has made good progress in making a peace deal, with Russia behaving very well. He claims securing peace is the hardest part, with securing Ukraine the easiest. He confirms a mineral deal with Zelensky will support Ukraine. Kir Starmer is quoted as saying only US support can ensure lasting peace in Ukraine.
   • Assessment: These statements CONFIRM A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN US POLICY and REINFORCE CONCERNS about a POTENTIAL DEAL DETRIMENTAL TO UKRAINE. The EXPLICIT STATEMENT that UKRAINE WILL NOT JOIN NATO is a MAJOR CONCESSION TO RUSSIA. The focus on a MINERAL DEAL raises concerns about ECONOMIC EXPLOITATION. The claim that RUSSIA IS BEHAVING WELL is HIGHLY CONCERNING.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (18:07 UTC) claims Russian forces, specifically Ussuri and Tula paratroopers, are pushing Ukrainian forces back on the Basovka-Novinkoe and Zhuravka line, attempting to cut off the supply corridor. They claim to have liberated six settlements in a few days: Lebedevka, Maryevka, Pogrebki, Orlovka, Novaya Sorochina, and Nikolsky.
   • Assessment: These claims REQUIRE URGENT AND THOROUGH VERIFICATION. If true, this represents a MAJOR RUSSIAN INCURSION into KURSK OBLAST and a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION OF THE CONFLICT. The reported LIBERATION OF SIX SETTLEMENTS is a SUBSTANTIAL GAIN and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION.

5. UKRAINIAN FORCES SHOOT DOWN 9 RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (17:42 UTC) reports that the Prime unit shot down nine Russian reconnaissance drones over Sumy Oblast.
   • Assessment: The action indicates a possible Russian attempt to conduct air surveillance in the area.

Updated Situation Summary

• EXPANDING DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed drone attacks in Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts, with impacts reported in Kharkiv suburbs. Dual drone threat to Sumy from southeast and north.
• TRUMP CONFIRMS PEACE DEAL, NO NATO FOR UKRAINE, MINERAL DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Major shift in US policy, with explicit statement that Ukraine will not join NATO and focus on a mineral deal. Concerns about a deal detrimental to Ukraine are reinforced.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF MAJOR ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Claims of Russian forces liberating six settlements and pushing Ukrainian forces back, representing a potential major escalation.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KAMENSKOE-PYATIHATKI (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Claims of continued pressure and advance into Pyatihatki on the Zaporizhzhia front.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claims of liberating six settlements and pushing Ukrainian forces back.
   • Assess the scale and scope of the reported Russian incursion.
   • Determine the impact on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and LOGISTICS.
   • Prepare for potential further Russian advances in the region.

2. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE KHARKIV AND SUMY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Activate all available air defense systems in KHARKIV AND SUMY OBLASTS.
   • Prioritize the protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, POPULATION CENTERS, and MILITARY ASSETS.
   • Issue public warnings and ENSURE ACCESS TO SHELTERS.
   • Coordinate with local authorities to RESPOND TO IMPACTS in Kharkiv suburbs.
   • Prepare countermeasures to counteract Russian air surveillance in SUMY OBLAST.

3. URGENTLY SEEK CLARIFICATION ON US PEACE DEAL TERMS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Engage in immediate and high-level diplomatic efforts with the US to UNDERSTAND THE FULL TERMS of the proposed peace deal.
   • Express strong concerns about the EXCLUSION OF UKRAINE FROM NATO, the focus on a MINERAL DEAL, and the claim that RUSSIA IS BEHAVING WELL.
   • Seek assurances that any agreement will RESPECT UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY and will not COMPROMISE UKRAINE'S LONG-TERM SECURITY.
   • Coordinate with European allies to PRESENT A UNITED FRONT and LEVERAGE COLLECTIVE INFLUENCE.

4. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR KAMENSKOE-PYATIHATKI (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claims of advancing towards and occupying positions in Pyatihatki.
   • Assess the impact on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS on the ZAPORIZHZHIA FRONT.

5. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC, with MULTIPLE CRITICAL DEVELOPMENTS requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. The EXPANDING DRONE ATTACKS, the CONFIRMATION OF A US PEACE DEAL DETRIMENTAL TO UKRAINE, and the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in both KURSK OBLAST and near KAMENSKOE-PYATIHATKI represent a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION AND DETERIORATION of the situation. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL.