Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 26, 2025, 20:20 UTC

Changes and New Information (19:51 UTC - 20:20 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS AND CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Рыбарь (19:55 UTC) provides a "Chronicle of the Special Military Operation" for February 26, 2025:
     • Russian forces conducted missile and drone strikes across Ukraine.
     • Ukrainian forces launched over 100 drones at Crimea and Krasnodar Krai, most intercepted.
     • Kursk Oblast: Russian forces liberated Pogrebki and Orlovka. Advances in other settlements.
     • Kupyansk Direction: Expanded bridgehead on the west bank of the Oskol River near Dvorechnaya and Zapadnoye.
     • Limansk Direction: Russian forces advanced near Kolodezey, capturing half of a large fortified area.
     • Dzerzhinsk Direction: Reports of large-scale Ukrainian attacks within the city, heavy fighting on the outskirts.
     • Andreevsk Direction: Near-complete liberation of Andreevka. Advance towards Alekseevka.

     • Claim of liberation of Topoli (11:22) remains relevant.
       

   • Assessment: This report, while requiring EXTENSIVE VERIFICATION, suggests CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS across multiple fronts. The claims of territorial gains, particularly in Kursk Oblast and near Andreevka, are SIGNIFICANT and could indicate a SHIFT IN THE BATTLEFIELD DYNAMICS. The reported Ukrainian drone attacks on Crimea and Krasnodar Krai, if accurate, demonstrate UKRAINE'S CONTINUED ABILITY TO STRIKE DEEP INTO RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY. The "large-scale Ukrainian attacks" near Dzerzhinsk REQUIRE URGENT CLARIFICATION.

2. MASSIVE AIRSTRIKE ON KOSTYANTYNIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (19:58 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:13, 20:19 UTC) report a massive airstrike on Kostyantynivka, with at least nine guided aerial bombs. Videos show the immediate aftermath, with significant damage and civilian casualties. Reports of FIVE DEAD and ELEVEN INJURED civilians.
   • РБК-Україна (20:17) posted another video, mentioning the same statistics, and stating that the airstrike hit the center of the city.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR EVENT with SEVERE HUMANITARIAN CONSEQUENCES. The use of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS in a DENSELY POPULATED AREA is HIGHLY CONCERNING and likely constitutes a WAR CRIME. The attack DEMONSTRATES RUSSIAN WILLINGNESS TO INFLICT MASS CIVILIAN CASUALTIES. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE INTERNATIONAL CONDEMNATION and INVESTIGATION.

3. DESTROYED UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT IN KURSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Colonelcassad (20:19 UTC) shows video of burning Ukrainian equipment, including a US-supplied M2A2 Bradley BMP and a "Kozak-7" armored vehicle, reportedly in Kursk Oblast.
   • Assessment: This, if verified, SUPPORTS the claims of Russian advances in Kursk Oblast and INDICATES UKRAINIAN LOSSES in the area. The presence of US-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT is NOTEWORTHY.

4. CONTINUED DRONE MOVEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:10, 20:18 UTC) reports continued drone movements:
     • Kremenchuk: A group of drones passed the city.
     • Sumy Oblast: Dozens of drones towards CHERNIHIV and POLTAVA OBLASTS.
     • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones moving towards KYIV OBLAST.
     • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones moving towards CHERKASY OBLAST.
   • Assessment: The DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES, with MULTIPLE WAVES targeting various regions. The THREAT TO KYIV REMAINS. This is a CRITICAL SITUATION.

5. UKRAINIAN FORCES "ALMOST ACCUSTOMED" TO KURSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (20:08) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:40 UTC) quote Zelensky as saying Ukrainian forces are "almost accustomed" to Kursk Oblast, holding a buffer zone for seven months.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the UKRAINIAN COUNTER-INCURSION into Kursk Oblast and suggests a DEGREE OF SUCCESS in establishing a BUFFER ZONE. This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT that CHALLENGES THE NARRATIVE OF RUSSIAN CONTROL in the border regions.

6. OTHER REPORTS:

• ASTRA (19:59) reports on neglected dogs. IRRELEVANT to the immediate military situation.
• Alex Parker Returns (20:01): Picture of an anti-Russia protest. IRRELEVANT.
• Воин DV (20:02): Video of a drone striking a Russian convoy, one soldier survived by covering the Ukranian soldier, who was a prisoner. IRRELEVANT.
• Дневник Десантника (20:03) posts a picture and text, celebrating a Russian historical military figure. IRRELEVANT.
• БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (20:16) posts a video and text, commemorating a fallen soldier. IRRELEVANT.
• Шеф Hayabusa (20:07) reports fundraising efforts for the troops. IRRELEVANT.
• Два майора (20:07) makes comments about General Popov's situation. IRRELEVANT.
• РБК-Україна (20:10) reports on a deadly traffic accident. IRRELEVANT.

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE AIRSTRIKE ON KOSTYANTYNIVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): At least five dead and eleven injured civilians. A major humanitarian crisis and likely war crime.
• CONTINUED, COORDINATED DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): DRONE ACTIVITY CONTINUES, with MULTIPLE WAVES targeting various regions, including a CONTINUED THREAT TO KYIV. The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL.
• RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS AND CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports suggest continued Russian advances on multiple fronts, particularly in Kursk Oblast and near Andreevka.
• UKRAINIAN COUNTER-INCURSION INTO KURSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelensky confirms Ukrainian forces are holding a buffer zone.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN PROPOSAL FOR MINERAL RIGHTS IN OCCUPIED TERRITORIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Remains relevant.
• TRUMP CABINET MEETING DETAILS INDICATE SHIFT IN US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Remains relevant.
• US ATTEMPTS TO REMOVE SECURITY GUARANTEES FROM AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Remains relevant.
• UKRAINE NOT ON AGENDA FOR US-RUSSIA MEETING IN ISTANBUL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains relevant.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE TO KOSTYANTYNIVKA AIRSTRIKE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Mobilize all available resources to RESCUE AND TREAT the injured.
   • Provide immediate shelter, food, and medical care to DISPLACED CIVILIANS.
   • Document the attack thoroughly, including EVIDENCE OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and the USE OF GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS.
   • Request immediate international assistance, including MEDICAL SUPPLIES, HUMANITARIAN AID, and SUPPORT FOR INVESTIGATING POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.

2. CONTINUE TO PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE AGAINST DRONES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): NO CHANGE. Remains ESSENTIAL. The latest reports REINFORCE THE URGENCY of this recommendation, particularly given the CONTINUED THREAT TO KYIV.

3. URGENTLY INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported Russian advances in Kursk Oblast, near Andreevka, and on other fronts.
   • Assess the scale of any confirmed Russian gains and their IMPACT ON THE OVERALL BATTLEFIELD SITUATION.
   • Analyze the reported Ukrainian attacks near Dzerzhinsk and DETERMINE THEIR VALIDITY AND SIGNIFICANCE.

4. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The KOSTYANTYNIVKA AIRSTRIKE, the ONGOING DRONE ATTACK, the REPORTED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS, and the UKRAINIAN COUNTER-INCURSION into Kursk Oblast are KEY DEVELOPMENTS requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL due to the MASSIVE AIRSTRIKE ON KOSTYANTYNIVKA, the CONTINUED DRONE ATTACK, and the POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THE HUMANITARIAN CRISIS, PROTECT AGAINST DRONE ATTACKS, VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS, and MAINTAIN UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS. The POTENTIALLY GAME-CHANGING DEVELOPMENTS regarding US POLICY and RUSSIAN PROPOSALS remain a MAJOR CONCERN.