Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 26, 2025, 18:20 UTC
Changes and New Information (17:51 UTC - 18:20 UTC)
TRUMP: US TO SUPPORT EUROPEAN PEACEKEEPERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (17:53 UTC) reports Trump stating the US will support European countries in deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine, calling it an "easy question," but emphasizing the difficulty lies in achieving a settlement.
Assessment: This FURTHER CLARIFIES THE US POSITION on POTENTIAL MILITARY INTERVENTION in Ukraine. It SHIFTS RESPONSIBILITY for DIRECT MILITARY INVOLVEMENT to EUROPEAN COUNTRIES, while the US FOCUSES ON NEGOTIATIONS. The statement DOES NOT SPECIFY the CONDITIONS under which PEACEKEEPERS WOULD BE DEPLOYED or their MANDATE. This COULD CREATE TENSIONS with UKRAINE if the PEACEKEEPERS ARE DEPLOYED WITHOUT ITS CONSENT or if their PRESENCE HINDERS UKRAINIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS.
TRUMP: US TO TRY TO RETURN LOST TERRITORIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (17:54 UTC) reports Trump saying the US will try to raise the issue of returning some lost territories to Ukraine, but acknowledging the difficulty of achieving this.
Assessment: This signals an adjustment in the US' position, and may present issues with Russia.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (17:56 UTC) reports Russian forces, specifically the 90th Division of the "Center" group, are beginning an assault on Preobrazhenka, located near the border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, following the claimed capture of Zaporizhzhia. Reports progress south of Nadeevka and ongoing fighting in several other areas.
Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it indicates a NEW AXIS OF ADVANCE for RUSSIAN FORCES, potentially aimed at EXPANDING CONTROL into the DNIPROPETROVSK REGION. The claimed capture of Zaporizhzhia, if true, would be a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. The reported progress south of Nadeevka and fighting in other areas CONFIRMS CONTINUED INTENSE COMBAT along the front line.
Оперативний ЗСУ (18:05) reports General-Major Gnatov has been dismissed.
Assessment: This SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MILITARY LEADERSHIP could be due to VARIOUS FACTORS, including PERFORMANCE ISSUES, STRATEGIC DISAGREEMENTS, or a PLANNED ROTATION. It is CRITICAL TO DETERMINE the REASON FOR THE DISMISSAL and IDENTIFY THE REPLACEMENT to ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPACT on UKRAINIAN MILITARY OPERATIONS.
Дневник Десантника (18:04 UTC) reports Russian artillery using "Krasnopol" guided munitions to target what they claim are "elite" Ukrainian forces in Krasnoarmeysk. Includes video footage.
Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it indicates the CONTINUED USE OF PRECISION-GUIDED MUNITIONS by RUSSIAN FORCES. The claim of targeting "elite" forces, if true, could indicate a PRIORITY ON DEGRADING UKRAINIAN SPECIAL OPERATIONS CAPABILITIES.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (18:16 UTC) reports a Russian soldier, Platon Mamatov, openly admitted in his telegram channel that he was present during the execution of a Ukrainian soldier by Russian marines.
Assessment: This is an EXTREMELY SERIOUS ALLEGATION that, if confirmed, constitutes a WAR CRIME. This requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION and VERIFICATION. The IDENTITY OF THE SOLDIER and the CIRCUMSTANCES OF THE ALLEGED EXECUTION must be ESTABLISHED. This incident could have SIGNIFICANT INTERNATIONAL REPERCUSSIONS.
BRITISH INTELLIGENCE ACTIVITY IN BOSNIA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (18:15 UTC) reports on a British plane circling over Bosnia.
* Assessment: British forces are involved in intelligence operations in Bosnia, and may be attempting to escalate tensions in the area.
Updated Situation Summary
US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL IMMINENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelensky reportedly traveling to Washington on Friday to finalize the agreement. Ukraine's Cabinet has approved. US expects to recoup $350 billion.
TRUMP: UKRAINE MAY NEED TO FORGET ABOUT NATO (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MAJOR POLICY SHIFT, with PROFOUND IMPLICATIONS FOR UKRAINIAN SECURITY.
TRUMP: US TO TRY TO RETURN LOST TERRITORIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):POSSIBLE ISSUE WITH RUSSIA.
RUSSIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY STARTING ASSAULT NEAR PREOBRAZHENKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):POTENTIAL NEW AXIS OF ADVANCE.
RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE AIR ATTACKS IN DONETSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The use of guided aerial bombs demonstrates the potential destruction.
UKRAINIAN SOLDIER EXECUTED BY RUSSIAN MARINES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):EXTREMELY SERIOUS ALLEGATION of a WAR CRIME.
COMMANDER OF UKRAINIAN JOINT FORCES DISMISSED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MILITARY LEADERSHIP.
RUSSIAN FORCES DESTROY UKRAINIAN S-300 (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A MAJOR BLOW TO UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES, increasing the threat to Ukrainian aircraft.
RUSSIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO ADVANCE AND ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY):CONTINUED ATTACKS ON FRONT-LINE TOWNS, with potential civilian casualties.
RUSSIAN-US MEETING IN ISTANBUL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Potential for broader discussions beyond embassy operations.
LAVROV RULES OUT CEASEFIRE ON CURRENT LINES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MAJOR STATEMENT OF RUSSIAN INTENT, reducing the likelihood of a near-term negotiated settlement.
IMMINENT MISSILE THREAT, ODESA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Requires immediate air defense activation and public warnings.
AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Requires immediate air defense activation and public warnings.
Immediately gather all available intelligence regarding the alleged execution, including VERIFYING THE IDENTITY OF THE RUSSIAN SOLDIER (Platon Mamatov) and his UNIT AFFILIATION.
Attempt to independently confirm the incident through HUMINT, SIGINT, and OSINT sources.
Document all evidence meticulously, following INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS for WAR CRIME INVESTIGATIONS.
Prepare to report the incident to INTERNATIONAL BODIES, including the INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT and the UN HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL.
Contact any potential witnesses to the event, while ensuring the information is consistent with known facts.
IDENTIFY AND ASSESS NEW COMMANDER OF JOINT FORCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Urgently determine the identity of the NEW COMMANDER of the UKRAINIAN JOINT FORCES.
Assess their previous experience, command style, and strategic views.
Analyze potential changes in Ukrainian military strategy or tactics based on the new commander's profile.
VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ASSAULT NEAR PREOBRAZHENKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets (drones, satellite imagery, HUMINT) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported Russian assault near Preobrazhenka.
Assess the scale and objectives of the reported offensive.
Determine the impact on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and LINES OF COMMUNICATION.
REITERATE URGENT NEED TO CLARIFY US POSITION ON NATO AND MINERAL DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):
Continue to press US officials for CLEAR AND UNAMBIGUOUS STATEMENTS regarding UKRAINE'S NATO ASPIRATIONS and the TERMS OF THE MINERAL DEAL.
Highlight the potential negative consequences of AMBIGUITY AND INCONSISTENCY in US POLICY for UKRAINIAN SECURITY AND REGIONAL STABILITY.
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT DUE TO RUSSIAN AVIATION ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Maintain alert across all threatened regions.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND UNPREDICTABLE. The REPORTED EXECUTION OF A UKRAINIAN SOLDIER is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that requires IMMEDIATE ATTENTION and ACTION. The CHANGE IN UKRAINIAN MILITARY LEADERSHIP and POTENTIAL NEW RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE add to the UNCERTAINTY. The CONTINUED AMBIGUITY in US POLICY regarding NATO AND UKRAINE'S FUTURE is DEEPLY CONCERNING. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF REPORTS, AND COORDINATED DIPLOMATIC AND MILITARY ACTION are ESSENTIAL.
