Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 26, 2025, 07:41 UTC

Changes and New Information (07:11 UTC - 07:41 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED ATTACK ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (07:12 UTC) reports a Russian attack on a DTEK energy facility in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during a massive overnight attack. Efforts are underway to restore operations.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS earlier reports of WIDESPREAD DAMAGE to ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE due to the MASSIVE RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK. This SPECIFICALLY targets a DTEK FACILITY in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST, a KEY INDUSTRIAL REGION. This FURTHER DISRUPTS UKRAINIAN POWER SUPPLY and IMPACTS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION.

2. TRUMP'S GOLDEN CARD (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Оперативний ЗСУ (07:41 UTC) repeats the information from Два майора about Trump considering offering "golden cards," visas in exchange of 5 million dollars. * Assessment: IRRELEVANT to the military situation.

3. REPORTS OF RUSSIAN FORCES DISRUPTING LOGISTICS IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (07:19 UTC) reports that Russian forces have severely disrupted Ukrainian logistics in the Kursk region, attributing this to the work of FPV drone operators targeting vehicles on the road to Sudzha.
   • Assessment: This is the most significant new development. It reinforces the possibility of a Ukrainian presence or cross-border operations inside Russian territory. REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The claim of significant disruption to Ukrainian logistics suggests a potential change in the operational environment. This must be VERIFIED with satellite imagery, signal intercepts, and human intelligence.

4. CLAIMS OF EUROPEAN READINESS TO DEPLOY TROOPS TO UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• ТАСС (07:20 UTC), quoting French Finance Minister Eric Lombard, claims that Paris, Berlin, and London are ready to send troops to Ukraine to ensure a ceasefire but require US support. * РБК-Україна (07:37 UTC) cites Bloomberg, quoting Eric Lombard reporting that the UK, Germany, and France are ready to deploy troops in Ukraine to "guarantee a ceasefire."
• Assessment: HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT BUT REQUIRES EXTREME CAUTION. This is a RUSSIAN SOURCE reporting on a FRENCH OFFICIAL'S STATEMENT about a POTENTIALLY MAJOR ESCALATION. It could be PROPAGANDA or a MISINTERPRETATION. If true, it indicates a MAJOR SHIFT in EUROPEAN POLICY towards the conflict. However, the condition of US SUPPORT is CRITICAL. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION from FRENCH, GERMAN, UK, AND US SOURCES.

5. RUSSIAN REPORTS ON DRONE INTERCEPTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*  *Colonelcassad* (07:35 UTC) reports 128 drones have been shot down over several regions, including Krasnodar Krai, Crimea, Azov Sea, Black Sea, Bryansk, and Kursk.

* **Assessment:** *CONFIRMATION* of the scale of the drone attacks, though still requires independent verification.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): FURTHER DISRUPTION of UKRAINIAN POWER SUPPLY and INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION.
• RUSSIAN FORCES DISRUPTING LOGISTICS IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION.
• CLAIMS OF EUROPEAN READINESS TO DEPLOY TROOPS TO UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT BUT REQUIRES EXTREME CAUTION AND CONFIRMATION.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ASSESS DAMAGE AND RESTORE OPERATIONS AT DNIPROPETROVSK ENERGY FACILITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy emergency response teams to ASSESS DAMAGE and BEGIN REPAIRS at the DTEK FACILITY in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
   • Implement contingency plans to MITIGATE POWER OUTAGES and MAINTAIN CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE OPERATIONS.
   • Prioritize power supply to MILITARY FACILITIES, HOSPITALS, AND ESSENTIAL SERVICES.

2. INVESTIGATE RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF LOGISTICS DISRUPTION IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence, signal intercepts) to VERIFY the claimed disruption of Ukrainian logistics in the Kursk region.
   • Determine the extent of any UKRAINIAN ACTIVITY inside RUSSIAN TERRITORY.
   • Assess the validity of claims regarding the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones.
   • Prepare for potential escalation if Russian claims are confirmed.

3. CONFIRM AND ASSESS CLAIMS OF EUROPEAN READINESS TO DEPLOY TROOPS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently seek confirmation from FRENCH, GERMAN, UK, AND US OFFICIALS regarding the reported readiness to deploy troops to Ukraine.
   • Assess the conditions for such deployment, particularly the requirement for US SUPPORT.
   • Analyze the potential implications for NATO INVOLVEMENT, ESCALATION RISKS, and the OVERALL COURSE OF THE CONFLICT.
   • Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios, including potential deployment of Ukrainian forces alongside European troops.

4. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED DAMAGE to ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST and the REPORTED DISRUPTION OF LOGISTICS IN KURSK add NEW LAYERS OF URGENCY. The POTENTIAL FOR EUROPEAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT, while UNCERTAIN, represents a POTENTIALLY MAJOR SHIFT in the conflict and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND SUSTAINED ATTENTION. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC ACTION are ESSENTIAL.