Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 26, 2025, 06:41 UTC
Changes and New Information (06:11 UTC - 06:41 UTC)
RUSSIAN ROAD OPERATOR DEPARTS RUSSIA (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (06:12 UTC) reports that Vinci S.A., a major road operator, has left Russia, with its share in the "North-West Concession Company" bought by the "Natsproektstroy" group.
Assessment:NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the IMMEDIATE MILITARY SITUATION, but INDICATES FURTHER ECONOMIC ISOLATION OF RUSSIA due to the war.
UKRAINIAN OFFICIAL ON CRIMEAN OCCUPATION (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (06:13 UTC) posted a video commemorating the 11th anniversary of the Crimean occupation, emphasizing continued Ukrainian resistance.
Assessment:PRIMARILY A STATEMENT OF MORALE AND POLITICAL POSITION. REINFORCES the UKRAINIAN CLAIM to Crimea.
RUSSIAN ATTACK ON KHARKIV, KYIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN AND RUSSIAN SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (06:14 UTC) reports Russian Shahed drone attacks on Ukraine, including a hit on a high-rise building in Kharkiv and damage to private sectors in Kyiv Oblast, with casualties.
Север.Реалии (06:15 UTC) reports the same, specifying that a drone hit a high-rise in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv (two injured) and that a body was found in a house fire in Bucha district, Kyiv Oblast. Another Kyiv Oblast location reported a 19-year-old woman and a man (born 1981) injured, with five houses and several apartments damaged.
Assessment:REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS and PROVIDES FURTHER DETAILS on DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES from OVERNIGHT RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS. The SPECIFIC LOCATIONS AND INJURY DETAILS are VALUABLE INFORMATION.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (06:16 UTC) claims that Russian paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division have broken through Ukrainian defenses near Lebedevka in Kursk Oblast, after previously liberating Sverdlikovo. They claim to have reached the center of Lebedevka and are advancing towards the eastern part, clearing Ukrainian strongpoints. They caution against premature claims of full liberation.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT and REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCE in KURSK OBLAST. This is SEPARATE FROM the previously reported UKRAINIAN OPERATION in KURSK OBLAST.
THREAT OF AIRSTRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:20 UTC) warns of the threat of air strikes in frontline areas due to the activity of enemy tactical aviation, now in the north-eastern direction.
Assessment:REINFORCES PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS of the CONTINUED AIR THREAT, and the threat has EXPANDED TO THE NORTH-EASTERN DIRECTION.
ОТУ "Харків"🇺🇦 (06:21) report that they are trying to adapt using rifles against drones, showing that drones are currently an issue.
Assessment: This is a very SIGNIFICANT DISCOVERY, and confirms previous assessments that DRONES ARE BEING USED IN THE AREA.
UKRAINE-US MINERAL AGREEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (06:23), reports that the question on Ukrainian rare metals has become one of the central issues in the US-Ukraine negotiations, where the two parties can't reach agreement.
Assessment: This is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT and INDICATES A MAJOR DISAGREEMENT between the US and Ukraine over the TERMS OF ECONOMIC AND MILITARY SUPPORT.
UKRAINIAN FUNDRAISING FOR VEHICLE REPAIR (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (06:26 UTC) is fundraising for the repair of a vehicle for the 155th unit, requesting 21,000 UAH.
Assessment:NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE IMMEDIATE MILITARY SITUATION, but INDICATES ONGOING LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES and the RELIANCE ON CIVILIAN SUPPORT.
ALL DRONES ATTACKING RUSSIA ARE UKRAINIAN (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗС🇺 (06:29) reports that "100% of drones flying to Russia are Ukrainian-made", according to the commander of the SBS, Suharavsky.
Assessment:SIGNIFICANT CLAIM. Confirms UKRAINIAN ORIGIN OF DRONES used in attacks.
Assessment: This REINFORCES EARLIER REPORTS about the UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE and confirms UKRAINIAN SELF-SUFFICIENCY IN DRONE PRODUCTION.
РБК-Україна (06:30), has an interview with Mustafa Dzhemilev, discussing the Crimean situation, and the political aspects.
Assessment: This REINFORCES EARLIER REPORTS about the POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS in the area, and the position of the Crimean Tatar population.
ATTACK ON RUSSIAN CONSULATE IN MARSEILLE (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ASTRA (06:35 UTC) reports two scientists (engineer and chemist) from the French National Center for Scientific Research were arrested in Marseille for attacking the Russian consulate with bottles containing a nitrogen-chemical mixture. They reportedly acted in support of Ukraine.
ТАСС (06:36 UTC) provides video footage of the attack.
ASTRA (06:38) shared the same video.
Assessment:NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the MILITARY SITUATION IN UKRAINE, but INDICATES INTERNATIONAL TENSIONS AND PRO-UKRAINIAN SENTIMENT. The SCIENTIFIC BACKGROUND OF THE PERPETRATORS is NOTEWORTHY.
TRUMP'S STATEMENTS ON UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (06:37) reports Trump's statements:
* Ukraine will get enough weapons to continue the war until an agreement is reached.
* The future agreement on minerals with Ukraine may be worth 1 trillion dollars.
Assessment:REINFORCES PREVIOUS CONCERNS about TRUMP'S TRANSACTIONAL APPROACH and POTENTIAL FOR AN UNFAVORABLE AGREEMENT.
Updated Situation Summary
POTENTIAL MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): The reported RUSSIAN ADVANCE near LEBEDEVKA in KURSK OBLASTREQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. This would represent a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):FURTHER DETAILS CONFIRM DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES in KHARKIV and KYIV OBLAST.
CONTINUED AIR THREAT, NOW EXPANDED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian Air Force warns of the threat of airstrikes, now including the NORTH-EASTERN DIRECTION.
UKRAINIAN FORCES ADAPTING TO THE USE OF DRONES (HIGH PRIORITY): Showing that shotguns are being used, and tested, for drone defense.
TRUMP'S STATEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY): Reinforce previous statements on Ukraine's deal with rare metals.
ALL PREVIOUS REPORTS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). All previous reports remain, with some minor updates.
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported RUSSIAN ADVANCE near LEBEDEVKA.
Assess the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions and lines of communication.
Prepare counter-offensives or defensive adjustments as needed.
CONTINUE TO ASSESS UKRAINIAN DRONE OFFENSIVE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
ADDRESS DAMAGE FROM OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Seek clarification on the SPECIFIC DETAILS of the proposed deal.
MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS, EXPAND TO NORTHEAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Maintain increased vigilance for AIR THREATS, particularly in FRONTLINE AREAS and now EXPAND to the NORTH-EASTERN DIRECTION.
CAPITALIZE ON UKRAINIAN SPECIAL FORCES SUCCESS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Maintain all previous recommendations.
ADDRESS UKRAINIAN EFFORTS ON ADAPTING AGAINST DRONES (HIGH PRIORITY):
Continue monitoring and gathering all the information.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
