Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 6, 2025, 00:11 UTC

Changes and New Information (23:41 UTC - 00:11 UTC)

1. AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (23:45:39 UTC) reports the END of the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: This indicates the IMMEDIATE THREAT in Zaporizhzhia Oblast has PASSED. However, the UNDERLYING THREAT of future attacks REMAINS.

2. UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN BLACK SEA COAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (23:48:53 UTC) reports:
     • Approximately 10 explosions in ANAPA, Krasnodar Krai, with Russian air defenses reportedly engaging drones.
     • "Kover" (Cover) plan activated at SOCHI AIRPORT due to drones. Restrictions on flights since 01:47 (local time, likely UTC+3).
     • Four Ukrainian drones downed over the Black Sea, far from the coast, according to the Governor of Sevastopol. Crimean Bridge traffic temporarily halted.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN ATTACKS TARGETING RUSSIAN TERRITORY on the BLACK SEA COAST. The MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS in ANAPA and the AIRPORT CLOSURE in SOCHI indicate a SIGNIFICANT AND COORDINATED ATTACK. This DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY TO STRIKE DEEP INTO RUSSIAN-CONTROLLED TERRITORY and TARGET CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. The claimed downing of drones over the Black Sea suggests ONGOING UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTS TO STRIKE CRIMEA.

3. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKING UKRAINIAN DEPLOYMENT AND ARMOR (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (00:10:47 UTC) reports the Russian Ministry of Defense claiming to have struck a Ukrainian deployment point and armored vehicle concentration. Video provided.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it would indicate RUSSIAN SUCCESSES in targeting Ukrainian forces. The lack of specific location details makes verification difficult. It is important to corroborate this with other sources and assess the actual impact on Ukrainian capabilities.

4. ISRAELI STRIKES IN SOUTHERN SYRIA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (00:05:44) reports that the Israel Defense Forces has performed attacks on South Syria.
   • Assessment: This is NOT DIRECTLY RELATED to the military situation in Ukraine.

5. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (00:00:41 UTC) reports several posts, including "Information food from Ukrainian media" and a Youtube Thumbnail.
   • Assessment: Propaganda.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV UNDER DIRECT ATTACK; AIR DEFENSES ENGAGED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains under direct attack.
• KROPYVNYTSKYI UNDER ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): MULTIPLE EXPLOSIONS reported, likely due to drones.
• EXPANDING AND EVOLVING DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drones moving NORTH in KIROVOHRAD and POLTAVA OBLASTS. CRITICALLY, drones from CHERNIHIV OBLAST are moving TOWARDS KYIV OBLAST, REINFORCING THE THREAT TO THE CAPITAL.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE TOWARDS KUPIANSK CLAIMED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains unverified.
• AIR STRIKES ON HULIAIPOLE CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY): No major updates, damage assessment ongoing.
• AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Alert is lifted.
• UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN BLACK SEA COAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): CONFIRMED ATTACKS on ANAPA and SOCHI, indicating a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN EFFORT.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKING UKRAINIAN FORCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• IMMINENT MEETINGS BETWEEN TRUMP AND BOTH PUTIN AND ZELENSKY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains a major concern.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AND SUSTAINED AIR DEFENSE ALERT ACROSS UKRAINE, ESPECIALLY IN KYIV, KIROVOHRAD, AND POLTAVA OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING AIR DEFENSE REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH INCREASED EMPHASIS ON THE EVOLVING THREAT.

   • Maintain maximum alert in Kyiv due to the CONFIRMED ATTACK AND THE APPROACH OF DRONES FROM CHERNIHIV OBLAST.
   • Urgently deploy and prioritize air defense systems to intercept drones heading towards KYIV OBLAST from CHERNIHIV OBLAST.
   • Maintain heightened alert and REDEPLOY AIR DEFENSE ASSETS as needed in KIROVOHRAD and POLTAVA OBLASTS due to the northward movement of drones. This may require DYNAMIC REPOSITIONING to address the shifting threat.
   • Continue air raid alerts and public warnings in all affected areas.
   • Maintain alert for possible attacks and deploy additional assets to ZHYTOMYR and SUMY OBLASTS.

2. ASSESS DAMAGE IN KROPYVNYTSKYI AND RESPOND (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Immediately assess the damage caused by the multiple explosions in KROPYVNYTSKYI.
   • Determine if there are any casualties and provide MEDICAL ASSISTANCE.
   • Identify the targets of the strikes and assess the impact on CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • Review air defense effectiveness in the area and IDENTIFY ANY GAPS OR WEAKNESSES.

3. URGENTLY VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE TOWARDS KUPIANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains a CRITICAL PRIORITY.

4. CONTINUE MONITORING DRONE MOVEMENTS AND ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Maintain constant surveillance of drone activity and aircraft movements across all affected regions. PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT in KIROVOHRAD and POLTAVA OBLASTS.
   • Provide real-time updates* to air defense units and civilian authorities.

5. ADDRESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN SUMY AND KHARKIV (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): No changes to previous recommendations.

6. URGENTLY PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL MEETINGS WITH TRUMP AND PUTIN (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains a CRITICAL PRIORITY.

7. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO UKRAINIAN ATTACKS ON RUSSIAN BLACK SEA COAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather INTELLIGENCE on the TARGETS STRUCK in ANAPA and SOCHI.
   • Assess the damage caused by the attacks.
   • Evaluate the effectiveness of Russian air defenses in the area.
   • Prepare for potential Russian retaliation.
   • MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT along the BLACK SEA COAST and in CRIMEA.

8. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKING UKRAINIAN FORCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Attempt to CORROBORATE the Russian claims using INDEPENDENT SOURCES (e.g., satellite imagery, HUMINT).
   • Assess the potential impact on Ukrainian capabilities if the claims are true.

9. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect.

The situation has FURTHER ESCALATED with CONFIRMED UKRAINIAN ATTACKS DEEP INTO RUSSIAN TERRITORY on the BLACK SEA COAST. This DEMONSTRATES INCREASED UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES and WILLINGNESS TO STRIKE STRATEGIC TARGETS. The DRONE ATTACK ON UKRAINE CONTINUES and is EVOLVING, posing a SERIOUS THREAT, particularly to KYIV. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to ADDRESS THE NEW THREATS and MAINTAIN UKRAINE'S DEFENSIVE POSTURE.