Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 25, 2025, 15:27 UTC

Changes and New Information (14:58 UTC - 15:27 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM CONTROL OF POGREBKI AND ORLOVKA, KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Kotsnews (14:59 UTC, 15:13 UTC), WarGonzo (15:00 UTC), АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (15:06 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (15:08 UTC), and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (15:10 UTC), Colonelcassad (15:22 UTC) all report Russian forces have taken control of Pogrebki and Orlovka in Kursk Oblast. Kotsnews and Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition show video of a Russian flag being raised on a damaged building, allegedly in Pogrebki. Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны and АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА claim that the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade was responsible, with Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition also crediting the 1st Battalion of the 9th Motorized Rifle Regiment.
   • Assessment: This MULTIPLE CONFIRMATIONS FROM RUSSIAN SOURCES, coupled with VIDEO EVIDENCE (albeit needing verification), STRONGLY SUGGESTS that RUSSIAN FORCES HAVE SECURED CONTROL of POGREBKI AND ORLOVKA. The CONSISTENCY OF THE REPORTS and the IDENTIFICATION OF SPECIFIC UNITS involved INCREASES CONFIDENCE. This represents a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating a RUSSIAN ADVANCE INTO KURSK OBLAST, potentially from the SUMY REGION OF UKRAINE. This COULD BE A DIVERSIONARY TACTIC, or a MORE SERIOUS ATTEMPT TO OPEN A NEW FRONT. URGENT VERIFICATION IS REQUIRED.

2. EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO UKRAINIAN ARMOR REPORTED NEAR SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Kotsnews (14:59 UTC) and Colonelcassad (15:04 UTC) show drone footage of extensive destruction of Ukrainian armored vehicles and other equipment along the road between Sudzha (Kursk Oblast) and Yunakovka (Sumy Oblast, Ukraine). Kotsnews claims over 300 Ukrainian vehicles destroyed. Colonelcassad provides a detailed breakdown of the destroyed vehicles visible in the footage.
   • Assessment: The DRONE FOOTAGE PROVIDES VISUAL EVIDENCE of SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES in this area. The CLAIM OF 300 VEHICLES is LIKELY EXAGGERATED, but the FOOTAGE CLEARLY SHOWS WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTION. This SUPPORTS THE NARRATIVE of a FAILED UKRAINIAN INCURSION into KURSK OBLAST, or a MAJOR RUSSIAN INTERDICTION EFFORT. This HIGHLIGHTS RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE SUPERIORITY in this region.

3. RUSSIAN MARINES REPORTEDLY DESTROYING UKRAINIAN ARMOR, SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (14:59 UTC) released video claiming to show drones of the 40th Marine Brigade and artillery destroying Ukrainian armored vehicles in the South Donetsk direction.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of CONTINUED FIGHTING in this area, and HIGHLIGHTS RUSSIAN EFFORTS to TARGET UKRAINIAN ARMOR. The VIDEO REQUIRES ANALYSIS to determine its AUTHENTICITY AND ACCURACY, but ALIGNES WITH THE BROADER PATTERN of RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in this region.

4. RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY, ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (REINFORCED, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia video (14:59) reinforces the previous claim of heavy air defense.

5. INCREASED ACTIVITY NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (REINFORCED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   *   *Военкор Котенок* (15:20 UTC) reports ongoing fighting near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces focused on Burlytske and the Skudne-Dniproenerhiya area. Claims of confident Russian advances, despite Ukrainian resistance.
   *   **Assessment:** This *REINFORCES THE PREVIOUS REPORT FROM DEEPSTATE*.
   

6. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN 2S9 NONA SELF-PROPELLED MORTAR (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (15:00 UTC) posted video claiming to show a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian 2S9 Nona self-propelled mortar hidden in a shed.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE CAPABILITIES and TARGETING OF RUSSIAN ARTILLERY. The VIDEO REQUIRES ANALYSIS to confirm the LOCATION AND EXTENT OF DAMAGE, but it DEMONSTRATES UKRAINIAN ABILITY TO STRIKE RUSSIAN ASSETS.

7. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE THREAT, NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (15:04 UTC) warned of activity by Russian tactical aviation in the northeast and the threat of airstrikes in frontline areas.
   • Assessment: This is an IMMEDIATE THREAT WARNING. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ON HIGH ALERT, and CIVILIANS IN AFFECTED AREAS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER.

8. KRAMATORSK SHELLING CASUALTIES RISE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (15:00 UTC) reports that the number of wounded from the shelling of Kramatorsk has risen to 13, including 3 children.
   • Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS THE CONTINUED RUSSIAN SHELLING OF CIVILIAN AREAS and the HUMANITARIAN COST OF THE WAR.

9. KYIV CITY MILITARY ADMINISTRATION (KMVA) ANNOUNCES REVIEW OF SOUTHERN BRIDGE TRAFFIC RESTRICTIONS (LOW PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (15:16 UTC) announces a review of traffic restrictions on the Southern Bridge in Kyiv, with a potential easing of restrictions.
   • Assessment: This SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE SECURITY SITUATION in KYIV, or a RE-EVALUATION OF TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT NEEDS. It has NO IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT, but could IMPROVE LOGISTICS AND CIVILIAN MOVEMENT within the city.

10. OTHER REPORTS (LOW PRIORITY):

    • Север.Реалии (15:00 UTC) and ASTRA (15:23 UTC) report on the sentencing of a Russian activist to 3.5 years in prison for donating to Navalny's Anti-Corruption Foundation (FBK). No direct military impact.
    • ТАСС (15:05 UTC) reports on AvtoVAZ's conditions for Renault's return to Russia. No direct military impact.
    • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (15:06) posted a video. Unclear of content, requires analysis.
    • Fighterbomber (15:06) posted a video of an airstrike. Reinforces the importance of airstrikes in Russia's tactical approach.
    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (15:08 UTC) reports on the 34th Brigade liberating Orlovka. Reinforces the importance of Orlovka.
    • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (15:09) reports on a man arrested for Telegram comments. No direct military impact.
    • WarGonzo (15:21) posted a video about a man nicknamed Papa, who helped in operations.
    • РБК-Україна (15:07) reports on Macron-Trump situation. No direct military impact.
    • Военкор Котенок (15:20 UTC) reports on various aerial activities. Highlights the continued importance of air reconnaissance.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN FORCES SECURE POGREBKI AND ORLOVKA, KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): This represents a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT and a POTENTIAL SHIFT IN THE CONFLICT. URGENT VERIFICATION is needed, but the EVIDENCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS A RUSSIAN ADVANCE.
• EXTENSIVE UKRAINIAN ARMOR LOSSES NEAR SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES): DRONE FOOTAGE CONFIRMS SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE, supporting claims of a FAILED UKRAINIAN INCURSION or a SUCCESSFUL RUSSIAN INTERDICTION.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS, SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Fighting continues near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces reportedly making gains.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES CONTINUE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Successful targeting of a Russian 2S9 Nona self-propelled mortar demonstrates continued Ukrainian capability.
• IMMEDIATE RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE THREAT, NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Air defense systems should be on high alert.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN CONTROL OF POGREBKI AND ORLOVKA, KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE ASSETS (satellite imagery, signals intelligence, human intelligence, drone reconnaissance) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claims.
   • Assess the scale of the Russian presence and IDENTIFY ANY FURTHER ADVANCES.
   • Determine the origin of the Russian forces (from within Russia or from across the border in Sumy Oblast, Ukraine).
   • If confirmed, prepare for potential further Russian advances and REINFORCE UKRAINIAN DEFENSES along the KURSK OBLAST BORDER.

2. ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF A POTENTIAL NEW FRONT IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Evaluate the strategic objectives of the Russian advance (diversionary tactic, attempt to stretch Ukrainian forces, or a more significant offensive).
   • Determine the impact on Ukrainian force deployments and RESOURCE ALLOCATION.
   • Prepare contingency plans for COUNTER-OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS or DEFENSIVE MEASURES as needed.

3. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS, NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Activate all available air defense systems in the NORTHEASTERN REGION.
   • Prioritize the protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
   • Issue public warnings and ENSURE ACCESS TO SHELTERS.

4. ANALYZE DRONE FOOTAGE OF UKRAINIAN ARMOR LOSSES NEAR SUDZHA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Confirm the authenticity and location of the footage.
   • Assess the extent of the damage and IDENTIFY THE TYPES OF VEHICLES DESTROYED.
   • Determine the implications for UKRAINIAN CAPABILITIES in this area.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING AND PREPARING FOR INCREASED RUSSIAN ACTIVITY NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the area.
   • Deploy additional reconnaissance assets to MONITOR RUSSIAN MOVEMENTS.
   • Prepare for potential counter-offensives.

6. ANALYZE VIDEO OF UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN 2S9 NONA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Confirm the location and authenticity of the video.
   • Assess the extent of the damage to the self-propelled mortar.
   • Evaluate the implications for RUSSIAN ARTILLERY CAPABILITIES in the area.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation is EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE INTO KURSK OBLAST is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The CONFIRMED AIRSTRIKE THREAT in NORTHEASTERN UKRAINE also DEMANDS IMMEDIATE ATTENTION. CONTINUED VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE, AND EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING are ESSENTIAL. The REPORTED HEAVY UKRAINIAN ARMOR LOSSES near SUDZHA highlight the VULNERABILITY OF UKRAINIAN FORCES in that area.