Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 25, 2025, 05:55 UTC
Changes and New Information (05:26 UTC - 05:55 UTC)
PUTIN PROPOSES ALUMINUM AND RARE EARTH DEALS TO US (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ASTRA (05:26 UTC) and Басурин о главном (05:32 UTC) report Putin proposing to supply 2 million tons of aluminum annually to the US market, stabilize prices, and launch joint projects for aluminum mining in the Krasnoyarsk region (requiring $15 billion in investment). He also offers cooperation with foreign partners in the development of rare earth metals, including in occupied regions of Ukraine. Putin claims discussions about US-Russia relations took place in Riyadh, excluding Europe.
Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY ESCALATES CONCERNS about POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONSBYPASSING UKRAINE. The offer of ALUMINUM AND RARE EARTH METALS suggests a TRANSACTIONAL APPROACH and a POTENTIAL ATTEMPT to DIVIDE THE WESTERN ALLIANCE. The claim of discussions in RIYADH is UNVERIFIED but HIGHLY CONCERNING. Putin states that the possible Washington-Kyiv agreement on mineral resources is not related to Russia, but Russia would cooperate with the US and has more resources.
AIR RAID ALERTS LIFTED IN MOST OF UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (05:25 UTC) and Оперативний ЗСУ (05:30 UTC) report air raid alerts being lifted across most of Ukraine, except for Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and regions with ongoing drone threats.
Assessment: This indicates the IMMEDIATE MISSILE THREAT has FURTHER DIMINISHED, although DRONE THREATS PERSIST in SPECIFIC REGIONS.
THREE RUSSIAN DRONES SHOT DOWN OVER DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (05:30 UTC) reports that Ukrainian air defenses shot down three Russian drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight. A new air raid alert was issued in the morning.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY and UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE SUCCESSES in DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST. The new air raid alert indicates ONGOING THREAT.
UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION ON UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (05:33 UTC) reports that the UN Security Council adopted a US-proposed resolution on Ukraine, supported by ten countries, with five abstentions. A Russian amendment regarding "eliminating the root causes of the conflict" was not included. The resolution reportedly does not name Russia as the aggressor and refers to the war as a "conflict."
Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS THE DIVISIONS within the UN SECURITY COUNCIL regarding the UKRAINE CONFLICT. The FAILURE TO NAME RUSSIA AS THE AGGRESSOR and the use of the term "conflict" are CONCERNING for Ukraine.
PUTIN COMMENTS ON ZELENSKY AND TRUMP (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Басурин о главном (05:32 UTC) reports Putin calling Zelensky a "toxic figure" for the Ukrainian military and society, claiming his rating is half that of Zaluzhny, and stating that Zelensky's departure is in Ukraine's interests. Putin also claims Trump wants to "heal" Ukraine by pushing Zelensky into elections and that Trump's actions are based on "cold calculation."
Assessment: This is CLEARLY PROPAGANDA aimed at UNDERMINING ZELENSKY and SOWING DIVISION within Ukraine and between Ukraine and its allies. Putin's comments about Trump should be viewed with EXTREME SKEPTICISM.
KYIV AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (05:35 UTC) reports the air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted.
Assessment: This FURTHER REDUCES THE IMMEDIATE THREAT in the CAPITAL.
RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY AND SHELLING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Рыбарь (05:38 UTC) reports explosions in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts. 19 drones were shot down over several Russian regions. Shelling was reported in the Kursk region.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (05:40 UTC) reports active Russian reconnaissance drones in Kherson, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Sumy Oblasts, with potential air defense activity.
Assessment: This INDICATES ONGOING RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE GATHERING and a POTENTIAL THREAT in these regions.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DONETSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
WarGonzo (05:43 UTC) reports Russian advances near Piatykhatky, heading towards Lobkove, and towards Shcherbaky and Mali Shcherbaky. It also reports continued fighting in Konstantinovka.
Assessment: This CORROBORATES earlier reports of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in these areas. The mention of Konstantinovka suggests that fighting is INTENSIFYING there.
Assessment: This increases uncertainty within Europe.
Updated Situation Summary
POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, INCREASING CONCERN): Putin's proposals for ALUMINUM AND RARE EARTH DEALS with the US, along with claims of discussions in RIYADH, raise SERIOUS CONCERNS about potential negotiations BYPASSING UKRAINE. This is the MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA AND DONETSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, INCREASING CONFIDENCE): Multiple Russian sources report CONTINUED ADVANCES in these areas, particularly near PIATYKHATKY, LOBKOVE, SHCHERBAKY, and KONSTANTINOVKA. URGENT VERIFICATION is still needed, but CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING.
ONGOING RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Active reconnaissance drones reported in KHERSON, DONETSK, DNIPROPETROVSK, and SUMY OBLASTS, indicating potential targeting.
AIR RAID ALERTS LIFTED IN MOST OF UKRAINE, BUT THREATS PERSIST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Missile threat further diminished, but drone threats remain in specific regions.
THREE RUSSIAN DRONES SHOT DOWN OVER DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Demonstrates Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION HIGHLIGHTS DIVISIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Failure to name Russia as the aggressor is concerning.
PUTIN PROPAGANDA TARGETING ZELENSKY AND TRUMP (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Aims to sow division and undermine Ukrainian leadership.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Immediately engage with US officials at the HIGHEST LEVELS to VERIFY Putin's claims about discussions in Riyadh and the proposed deals.
Demand transparency and REITERATE UKRAINE'S POSITION that any negotiations must include Ukraine.
Use all available intelligence assets to DETERMINE THE TRUTH behind Putin's claims and ASSESS THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for Ukraine.
Coordinate with European allies to PRESENT A UNITED FRONT against any attempts to bypass Ukraine.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE MILITARY ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the reported Russian advances in ZAPORIZHZHIA and DONETSK.
Assess Ukrainian defensive capabilities in these areas and PREPARE COUNTER-OFFENSIVE OR REINFORCEMENT STRATEGIES.
Prioritize defending key settlements and SUPPLY LINES.
MAINTAIN HEIGHTENED AIR DEFENSE READINESS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Maintain heightened alert in areas with REPORTED RUSSIAN RECONNAISSANCE DRONE ACTIVITY (Kherson, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy).
Deploy air defense systems to COUNTER POTENTIAL TARGETING.
ADDRESS THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ACTION):
Engage with UN member states to EXPRESS CONCERNS about the resolution's wording and REITERATE UKRAINE'S POSITION.
Seek clarification on the implications of the resolution for international support.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, INFORMATION WARFARE):
Publicly refute Putin's claims about Zelensky and Trump.
Highlight the unity of the Ukrainian government and military.
Reinforce the message that Russia is the aggressor.
MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. The POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS and the REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES are the MOST PRESSING CONCERNS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on DIPLOMATIC, INTELLIGENCE, AND MILITARY FRONTS to PROTECT UKRAINE'S INTERESTS. The POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION and FURTHER UNPREDICTABLE DEVELOPMENTS remains HIGH.
