Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 25, 2025, 03:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (02:55 UTC - 03:25 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED EXPLOSIONS IN KYIV; AIR DEFENSES ACTIVE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (03:11:20) reports explosions heard in Kyiv amidst the ongoing drone threat.
   • РБК-Україна (03:16:42) reports air defense activity in Kyiv Oblast, citing the Kyiv Oblast Military Administration (KOVA).
   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:01:15) reports two drones passing Boryspil, approaching Kyiv.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS that KYIV IS UNDER DIRECT ATTACK and that AIR DEFENSES ARE ENGAGED. The reports of drones passing BORYSPIL CORROBORATE earlier reports and REINFORCE THE INTENSITY of the attack on the capital.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCE TOWARDS KUPIANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (03:04:01) reports, citing military expert Andrey Marochko, that Russian forces have entered Holubivka and are continuing to advance towards Kupiansk.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM that REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a NOTABLE ADVANCE in the KHARKIV OBLAST and INCREASED PRESSURE on Ukrainian forces defending KUPIANSK, a KEY LOGISTICAL HUB. This DEMANDS IMMEDIATE RECONNAISSANCE to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claim and ASSESS THE EXTENT OF THE ADVANCE.

3. AIR STRIKES ON HULIAIPOLE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (03:07:01) shows video of bomber aviation of the 11th Guards Air Force and Air Defense Army of the Eastern Military District striking temporary deployment points (PVD) in HuliaiPole.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN AIR STRIKES in the ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. The use of bomber aviation suggests a HIGH LEVEL OF INTENSITY and POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. This REINFORCES THE THREAT to Ukrainian forces and civilian populations in the area. FURTHER INTELLIGENCE GATHERING is needed to ASSESS THE TARGETS AND IMPACT of the strikes.

4. AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація (03:12:47) announces an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE ELEVATED THREAT LEVEL in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, CORROBORATING the reports of air strikes on HuliaiPole and INDICATING A WIDER AREA OF RISK. Civilians are urged to seek shelter.

5. UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (03:15:37) reports:
     • Four drones approaching Vasylkiv.
     • One drone approaching Zhytomyr.
     • Two new drones heading towards/through Sumy.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES THE ONGOING DRONE THREAT to KYIV (VASYLKIV) and ZHYTOMYR. The IDENTIFICATION OF TWO NEW DRONES heading towards/through SUMY EXPANDS THE AREA OF CONCERN and INCREASES THE PRESSURE on air defenses in that region, following the confirmed damage from an earlier strike.

6. STEAM COMPLIANCE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES)

• TASS (03:01:01) reports that Steam is fully compliant with the requirements of Russian law.
• Assessment: Shows that a major international gaming platform is adhering to Russia's regulations, which may include censorship and data localization.

7. US REACTION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES)

• TASS (03:15:08) reports that the US State Department believes the UN resolution on Ukraine is a significant step.
• Assessment: Highlights the US's support for diplomatic solutions to the Ukraine War through international bodies.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV UNDER DIRECT ATTACK; AIR DEFENSES ENGAGED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): EXPLOSIONS HEARD IN KYIV. AIR DEFENSES ACTIVE IN KYIV OBLAST. MULTIPLE DRONES approaching VASYLKIV.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE TOWARDS KUPIANSK CLAIMED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces reportedly entered HOLUBIVKA and are advancing towards KUPIANSK. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
• AIR STRIKES ON HULIAIPOLE CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY): Bomber aviation targeting temporary deployment points in HULIAIPOLE, ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
• AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Alert issued, indicating HIGH THREAT LEVEL.
• ONGOING, WIDESPREAD, AND EXPANDING DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): MULTIPLE DRONES targeting various locations, including KYIV (VASYLKIV), ZHYTOMYR, and now SUMY again. POTENTIAL PRE-LAUNCH MANEUVERS OF TU-95MS BOMBERS still a concern.
• IMMINENT MEETINGS BETWEEN TRUMP AND BOTH PUTIN AND ZELENSKY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains a MAJOR CONCERN.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AND SUSTAINED AIR DEFENSE ALERT ACROSS UKRAINE, PRIORITIZING KYIV, ZHYTOMYR, SUMY, AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION): ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REGARDING AIR DEFENSE REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH INCREASED EMPHASIS ON THE EXPANDING THREAT.

   • Maintain maximum alert in KYIV due to the CONFIRMED ATTACK AND ONGOING DRONE APPROACH.
   • Urgently deploy air defense systems to intercept drones approaching VASYLKIV.
   • Maintain heightened alert and deploy additional assets to ZHYTOMYR and SUMY OBLASTS due to the confirmed and renewed drone threats.
   • Maintain air raid alert and readiness in ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST due to confirmed air strikes and the general alert.
   • Prepare for a potential missile attack, given the earlier reported activity of TU-95MS bombers.

2. URGENTLY VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE TOWARDS KUPIANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance units, drone surveillance, and utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported advance on HOLUBIVKA and the movement towards KUPIANSK.
   • Assess the size and composition of the advancing forces.
   • Determine the impact on Ukrainian defensive positions and PREPARE FOR REINFORCEMENTS if necessary.

3. ASSESS IMPACT OF AIR STRIKES ON HULIAIPOLE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to ASSESS THE DAMAGE caused by the bomber strikes on HULIAIPOLE.
   • Identify the specific targets and DETERMINE IF THEY WERE LEGITIMATE MILITARY OBJECTIVES.
   • Assess the potential for civilian casualties and COLLATERAL DAMAGE.

4. CONTINUE MONITORING DRONE MOVEMENTS AND ENEMY TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Maintain constant surveillance of drone activity and aircraft movements across all affected regions.
   • Provide real-time updates to air defense units and civilian authorities.
   • Issue immediate warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER in areas under threat.

5. ADDRESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN SUMY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue rescue operations and provide MEDICAL ASSISTANCE to the injured.
   • Assess the damage to civilian infrastructure and continue REPAIR EFFORTS.
   • Provide support to affected residents.

6. URGENTLY PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL MEETINGS WITH TRUMP AND PUTIN (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains a CRITICAL PRIORITY.

7. MAINTAIN ALL OTHER RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. KYIV IS UNDER DIRECT ATTACK, with AIR DEFENSES ENGAGED. The ONGOING AND EXPANDING DRONE ATTACK continues, with RENEWED THREATS TO SUMY and CONFIRMED STRIKES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST. The CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE TOWARDS KUPIANSK REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION and could represent a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. IMMEDIATE AND SUSTAINED AIR DEFENSE, RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, AND PREPARATION FOR POTENTIAL GROUND OFFENSIVES are ESSENTIAL.