Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 21:11 UTC

Changes and New Information (20:41 UTC - 21:11 UTC)

1. TRUMP'S STATEMENTS AFTER MEETING WITH MACRON (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Рыбарь (20:42 UTC) reports key statements from Trump after his meeting with Macron:
     • Trump refuses to call Putin a dictator.
     • Trump claims one of his first calls after re-election was to Putin, expressing "great respect."
     • Trump states the US wants an agreement on Ukraine but is not opposed to a ceasefire first. He claims Putin "doesn't object to European peacekeepers."
     • Trump claims discussions with Russia about economic deals and Ukraine are "going successfully" and agreements "will be concluded."
     • Trump expresses interest in Russian rare earth metals and other resources, suggesting economic cooperation "could be beneficial for both sides."
     • Trump states that Europe should ensure Ukraine's security after conflict resolution, while the US is interested in access to Ukrainian resources.
     • Trump claims the US and Ukraine are close to a final agreement on resources, and a meeting with Zelenskyy may happen soon.
   • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT that CONFIRMS PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS OF A POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY under Trump. Trump is OPENLY PRAISING PUTIN, EXPRESSING INTEREST IN RUSSIAN RESOURCES, and SUGGESTING A US-RUSSIA AGREEMENT ON UKRAINE IS IMMINENT. The claim that Putin doesn't object to European peacekeepers REQUIRES VERIFICATION but is SIGNIFICANT. Trump's focus on US ACCESS TO UKRAINIAN RESOURCES REINFORCES PREVIOUS CONCERNS about PRESSURE ON UKRAINE TO CONCEDE. The claim of "successful" discussions with Russia INDICATES POTENTIAL BACKCHANNEL NEGOTIATIONS that BYPASS UKRAINE'S INTERESTS.

2. RUSSIAN ANALYST SUGGESTS UKRAINE DEAL ALREADY REACHED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (20:42 UTC) suggests that an agreement on Ukraine's future and the end of the war has already been reached through unofficial diplomacy, and current events are a staged implementation of that agreement. He predicts the war will end in 2025 but suggests globalists might try to prolong it.
   • Assessment: This is a SPECULATIVE ASSESSMENT, but it ALIGNES WITH TRUMP'S STATEMENTS and PREVIOUS REPORTS of POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS. If true, this would mean UKRAINE IS BEING FORCED TO ACCEPT A DEAL ON UNFAVORABLE TERMS. This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION through ALL AVAILABLE INTELLIGENCE SOURCES.

3. AIR RAID ALERTS AND GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS IN KHARKIV OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (20:43 UTC) reports missile danger in Kharkiv Oblast and launches of guided aerial bombs.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and INCREASED THREATS to KHARKIV OBLAST. The use of GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS indicates PRECISION STRIKES on TARGETED LOCATIONS.

4. EXPLOSIONS IN KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (21:00 UTC) reports several explosions in Kharkiv.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN STRIKES on KHARKIV. The EXTENT OF DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ASSESSMENT.

5. MACRON AND TRUMP ON PEACE AGREEMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • ТАСС (20:45, 20:47 UTC) reports that Macron believes the EU will be ready to send soldiers to Ukraine after a peace agreement is reached, and that a quick agreement is desirable, but peace should not be fragile. Trump found it "strange" that they are being asked if they are prepared to participate in the restoration of Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES the narrative of POTENTIAL EUROPEAN INVOLVEMENT in UKRAINE AFTER A PEACE DEAL, but also HIGHLIGHTS DIVERGENCES between MACRON'S and TRUMP'S views. TRUMP'S response suggests US RELUCTANCE to COMMIT TO UKRAINE'S RECONSTRUCTION.

6. UKRAINIAN FORCES REPORTEDLY DESTROY RUSSIAN COLUMN NEAR KUPYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (20:45 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian armored assault near Lozova in the Kupyansk direction, destroying enemy equipment. A video is provided.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL VICTORY for UKRAINIAN FORCES in the KUPYANSK DIRECTION. The video REQUIRES ANALYSIS to CONFIRM THE DETAILS, but it SUPPORTS PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS of INTENSE FIGHTING in this area. This MAY INDICATE A UKRAINIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE CAPABILITY.

7. CANADA ANNOUNCES NEW AID PACKAGE FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Zelenskiy / Official (20:47 UTC) reports a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau and announces new aid packages, including armored vehicles, the first transfers from CAD 5 billion allocated from frozen Russian assets, and a grant for energy security and infrastructure restoration.
   • Assessment: This is SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT from CANADA, including MILITARY EQUIPMENT and FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE. The use of FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS is a NOTABLE DEVELOPMENT that could SET A PRECEDENT for other countries.

8. MACRON WARNS OF RUSSIAN VIOLATION OF POTENTIAL PEACE AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна(20:49) reports that Macron claims Russia will be at war with all countries involved in the agreement if the terms are violated.
   • Assessment: This statement reiterates previous support from other countries.

9. UKRAINIAN-CANADIAN JOINT PRODUCTION OF ARMORED VEHICLES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (20:56 UTC) reports an agreement for joint production of Canadian Roshel armored vehicles in Ukraine, with Ukraine receiving necessary technical documentation and materials.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT STEP towards STRENGTHENING UKRAINE'S DOMESTIC DEFENSE INDUSTRY and REDUCING RELIANCE ON EXTERNAL SUPPLIES. This INDICATES LONG-TERM PLANNING for SUSTAINED DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.

10. DRONE ATTACK ON BRYANSK OBLAST, RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • AV БогомаZ (20:59 UTC) reports a drone attack on Bryansk Oblast, with Russian air defense units working to intercept.
    • Assessment: This INDICATES UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The TARGET AND EXTENT OF DAMAGE REQUIRE VERIFICATION.

11. BUDANOV ON LASTING PEACE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (21:07 UTC) reports Budanov stating that lasting peace is impossible without the return of occupied territories to 1991 borders, but this will not be quick. He mentions the possibility of Russia's disintegration.
    • Assessment: This further confirms the Ukrainian stance.

12. UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:08 UTC) provides updated drone movement information:
      • Drones in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading northwest.
      • Drones in Kharkiv Oblast, heading east.
      • Drones in Poltava and Cherkasy Oblasts, heading southwest.
      • Drones in Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts, heading west.
      • Drones in Kyiv Oblast, heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast.
    • Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUED DRONE THREAT, although the direction of some drones in KHARKIV OBLAST heading EAST is UNUSUAL and REQUIRES FURTHER INVESTIGATION. The movement towards ZHYTOMYR OBLAST is a NEW DEVELOPMENT.

Updated Overall Situation

• IMMINENT US-RUSSIA AGREEMENT ON UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/PARTIALLY CONFIRMED): Trump's statements STRONGLY SUGGEST a DEAL IS BEING NEGOTIATED that MAY NOT ALIGN WITH UKRAINE'S INTERESTS. The focus on US ACCESS TO UKRAINIAN RESOURCES and EUROPEAN RESPONSIBILITY FOR SECURITY is DEEPLY CONCERNING.
• RUSSIAN ANALYST CLAIMS DEAL ALREADY REACHED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): This SPECULATIVE ASSESSMENT REINFORCES CONCERNS about a POTENTIAL BACKROOM DEAL that FORCES UKRAINE TO ACCEPT UNFAVORABLE TERMS.
• INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS ON KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The AIR RAID ALERTS, GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS, and REPORTED EXPLOSIONS indicate a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE EFFORT against KHARKIV.
• CONTINUED WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): While the AIR ATTACK ON KYIV appears to be ONGOING, NEW THREATS are emerging in OTHER REGIONS, including ZHYTOMYR OBLAST.
• UKRAINIAN TACTICAL SUCCESSES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): The reported DESTRUCTION OF A RUSSIAN COLUMN near KUPYANSK is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT for UKRAINIAN FORCES.
• INCREASED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The NEW AID PACKAGES from CANADA and POTENTIAL JOINT PRODUCTION OF ARMORED VEHICLES are IMPORTANT STEPS to STRENGTHEN UKRAINE'S DEFENSE CAPABILITIES.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY SEEK CLARIFICATION ON POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA AGREEMENT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Use all available diplomatic channels to DEMAND CLARIFICATION from US OFFICIALS regarding TRUMP'S STATEMENTS and POTENTIAL NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIA.
   • Express strong concerns about any AGREEMENT THAT BYPASSES UKRAINE'S INTERESTS or FORCES CONCESSIONS ON TERRITORY OR SOVEREIGNTY.
   • Coordinate with European allies to MAINTAIN A UNIFIED FRONT and RESIST PRESSURE TO ACCEPT A DEAL ON UNFAVORABLE TERMS.
   • Prepare contingency plans for REDUCED US SUPPORT and SEEK ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF MILITARY AND FINANCIAL AID.

2. ADDRESS THE INTENSIFIED AIR ATTACKS ON KHARKIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE MILITARY ACTION):

   • Reinforce air defenses in KHARKIV OBLAST.
   • Provide immediate support to FRONT-LINE UNITS facing GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS.
   • Assess damage and casualties from the REPORTED EXPLOSIONS and PROVIDE ASSISTANCE.
   • Prepare for potential ground offensives in the KHARKIV DIRECTION.

3. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE ALERT ACROSS MULTIPLE REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense in KYIV and OTHER THREATENED AREAS, including ZHYTOMYR OBLAST.
   • Monitor drone movements and ENGAGE ALL AVAILABLE AIR DEFENSE ASSETS.
   • Issue public warnings and ENSURE ACCESS TO SHELTERS.

4. VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ANALYST'S CLAIM OF A PRE-EXISTING DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE INTELLIGENCE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence sources to INVESTIGATE THE CLAIM that a DEAL ON UKRAINE'S FUTURE HAS ALREADY BEEN REACHED.
   • Identify potential backchannel negotiations between the US AND RUSSIA.
   • Assess the potential terms of any such agreement and its IMPACT ON UKRAINE.

5. CAPITALIZE ON TACTICAL SUCCESSES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING MILITARY ACTION):

   • Exploit the reported victory near KUPYANSK to REGAIN LOST GROUND and STRENGTHEN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
   • Continue to target Russian armored columns and DISRUPT OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS.

6. LEVERAGE INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING DIPLOMATIC AND ECONOMIC ACTION):

   • Continue to engage with allies like CANADA to SECURE ADDITIONAL MILITARY AND FINANCIAL AID.
   • Expedite the joint production of ARMORED VEHICLES with CANADA.
   • Explore the possibility of USING FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS for UKRAINE'S RECONSTRUCTION.

7. INVESTIGATE DRONE ACTIVITY INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

• Determine the extent of damage inflicted.

8. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. TRUMP'S STATEMENTS and the POTENTIAL FOR A US-RUSSIA AGREEMENT pose a MAJOR THREAT to UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY. The INTENSIFIED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS and CONTINUED DRONE THREATS require IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, and MAXIMUM LEVERAGE OF INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT are ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL to DEFEND UKRAINE and COUNTER RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.