TASS (citing Reuters) reports Trump believes the Ukraine conflict could end "within weeks."
Trump also states he's working with Russia on "economic development."
Operativnyi ZSU reports Trump saying Putin has "no problem" with European troops in Ukraine as part of a peace deal, and that Trump hopes Ukraine can "return part of its land."
RBK-Ukraine reports Trump's acknowledgement of US interest in Russian resources, particularly rare earth metals. Operativnyi ZSU and TASS report similar statements.
Assessment: This REINFORCES THE EXTREME CONCERN about a potential shift in US policy detrimental to Ukraine. Trump's optimism, his acknowledgment of talks with Russia, and his focus on "economic development" and resource deals (including Russian resources) strongly suggest a transactional approach that prioritizes US interests above Ukrainian sovereignty. The suggestion of a potential "return" of some Ukrainian territory, but not all, is HIGHLY DANGEROUS. Trump's admission that Putin "doesn't have problems" with European troops as peacekeepers is the most dangerous, since it may be an invitation.
Potential European Troop Deployment (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Multiple sources (Tsaplienko, Operativnyi ZSU, RBK-Ukraine) report Trump's statement about not seeing a problem with sending European troops to Ukraine as peacekeepers.
Operativnyi ZSU reports Macron stating France is ready to provide Ukraine with security guarantees.
RBK-Ukraine reports Macron stating that France and Britain have a plan for security guarantees, potentially involving European troops, but not necessarily on the front line.
Assessment: The possibility of European troops in Ukraine, WITHOUT SPECIFIC DETAILS AND UKRAINIAN CONSENT, is a MAJOR CONCERN. While it could be a deterrent to further Russian aggression, it could also legitimize a Russian presence or lead to a frozen conflict that favors Russia. CLARIFICATION on the ROLE, MANDATE, AND CONDITIONS of any such deployment is URGENTLY NEEDED. This has to be Ukraine's decision.
UN Resolution and US Veto (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):
ASTRA reports the UN General Assembly passed a resolution demanding Russia withdraw its troops from Ukraine, with the US and Russia voting against it. China and India abstained.
Assessment: The US veto, ALONGSIDE RUSSIA, is a MAJOR NEGATIVE DEVELOPMENT and FURTHER CONFIRMS the SHIFT IN US POLICY towards a position DETRIMENTAL TO UKRAINE.
Continued Russian Advances (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):
Ribar reports significant Russian advances in the Vremivka direction, with some Ukrainian positions abandoned without a fight. Claims Russian forces are nearing Burlatske and Pryvilne.
Dnevnik Desantnika reports Russian forces taking over P'yatkhatky and advances to Lobkove and Stepove.
Assessment: These reports, if confirmed, represent SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS. They require IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION and a reassessment of Ukrainian defensive positions in these areas.
Canada Sanctions (MEDIUM):
Canada will sanction 109 ships involved in the "Russian shadow fleet".
Updated Overall Situation:
IMMINENT THREAT OF UNFAVORABLE US-UKRAINE DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY): Remains the most immediate and serious threat. Trump's repeated statements and the reported details of the deal point to a potential agreement that prioritizes US interests over Ukrainian sovereignty.
DRAMATIC SHIFT IN US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY): Trump's statements, the US-Russia economic talks, the US veto at the UN, and the potential US acceptance of a deal unfavorable to Ukraine all point to a MAJOR AND DANGEROUS SHIFT IN US POLICY. This is the MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL EUROPEAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT (HIGH PRIORITY): Requires IMMEDIATE CLARIFICATION and CAREFUL MONITORING. While potentially beneficial, it could also be EXTREMELY DANGEROUS without strict conditions and Ukrainian consent.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN MILITARY ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY): Reports of Russian gains in multiple areas require URGENT VERIFICATION and a REASSESSMENT OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
CONTINUED AERIAL WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains a significant threat, with ongoing drone activity and reports of air defense system deliveries.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations:
URGENTLY PREPARE FOR MEETING WITH TRUMP AND COUNTER US PRESSURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Reinforce the existing negotiating position on the minerals deal, PRIORITIZING UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY AND LONG-TERM INTERESTS. This is the MOST IMMEDIATE PRIORITY.
Prepare for direct confrontation with Trump over the terms of the deal.
Coordinate with European allies to present a UNIFIED FRONT and REJECT ANY DEAL that undermines Ukrainian sovereignty or security.
Prepare a public communications strategy to REJECT ANY UNFAVORABLE AGREEMENT and explain the reasons to the Ukrainian people and the international community.
URGENTLY SEEK CLARIFICATION ON US POLICY AND US-RUSSIA TALKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUED DIPLOMATIC ACTION):
Demand immediate clarification from the US on the reported US-Russia economic talks and the potential deal involving Ukrainian territory and resources.
Express strong opposition to any agreement that undermines Ukraine's sovereignty or security.
Reiterate Ukraine's position on the need for a just peace settlement WITH FULL UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION.
URGENTLY CLARIFY DETAILS OF POTENTIAL EUROPEAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):
Engage with European allies (particularly France and Britain) to CLARIFY the details of any plans for deploying troops to Ukraine.
Insist on full transparency about the ROLE, MANDATE, SIZE, AND CONDITIONS of any such deployment.
Emphasize that any deployment must be at the request of and with the full consent of Ukraine, and must not legitimize a Russian presence or lead to a frozen conflict.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE MILITARY ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to VERIFY the reported Russian advances in the Vremivka direction and other areas.
Assess the impact of these advances on Ukrainian defensive positions.
Prepare counter-offensives or defensive adjustments as needed.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): Remains unchanged.
STRENGTHEN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT NETWORK, EXPLORE ALTERNATIVE ALLIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Intensify diplomatic efforts with EUROPEAN ALLIES and other partners, ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO VOTED IN FAVOR OF THE UN RESOLUTION.
Explore alternative sources of military and financial assistance in case of reduced US support.
Strengthen ties with countries that have shown consistent support for Ukraine.
MONITOR AND ADDRESS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE BALKANS (LOW PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.
CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted.
The situation is now EVEN MORE CRITICAL than before. The IMMINENT THREAT OF AN UNFAVORABLE DEAL with the US, combined with the EVIDENCE OF A MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY and the POTENTIAL FOR A EUROPEAN TROOP DEPLOYMENT WITHOUT CLEAR CONDITIONS, represents a MAJOR CRISIS for Ukraine. IMMEDIATE, DECISIVE, AND COORDINATED ACTION is required on ALL FRONTS – diplomatic, military, and informational – to PROTECT UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY AND SECURITY. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES add to the URGENCY OF THE SITUATION.
