Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 16:00 UTC
Changes and New Information (15:30 UTC - 16:00 UTC)
US Blocks G7 Resolution Condemning Russia (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (15:32 UTC), citing Bloomberg, reports the US is blocking a G7 resolution condemning Russia and calling for stricter energy sanctions. The US is said to have threatened to withdraw support for the statement altogether.
Assessment: This SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERMINES the UNITED WESTERN FRONT against Russia. It REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of a potential SHIFT IN US POLICY towards a more TRANSACTIONAL AND LESS CONFRONTATIONAL APPROACH. The reported US proposal to the UN General Assembly that "equates the actions of Ukraine and Russia" (if true) is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT indicating a POTENTIAL MOVE TOWARDS MEDIATION ON TERMS MORE FAVORABLE TO RUSSIA.
Competing UN Resolutions (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (15:34 UTC) reports that the UN General Assembly is considering two resolutions on the war. One, supported by Ukraine and its partners, demands the withdrawal of Russian troops and recognizes Russia as the aggressor. The other, proposed by the US, reportedly calls the war a "conflict" and urges an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the reports of a DIVERGENCE IN APPROACH between the US AND UKRAINE/ITS ALLIES. The US proposal's framing is SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER and suggests a MOVE TOWARDS A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT that may NOT FULLY ADDRESS UKRAINE'S CORE DEMANDS. This situation PLACES UKRAINE IN A DIFFICULT POSITION, potentially forcing it to choose between accepting a less favorable resolution or facing isolation.
RUSSIAN SUPPORTТАСС (15:58) reports the Russian envoy to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, saying that the US draft is a step "in the right direction", but that Russia will propose an amendment.
Assessment: This is CRITICAL as it shows RUSSIAN SUPPORT, and that RUSSIA IS TRYING TO CAPITALIZE ON THE DIVERGENCE.
Reported Russian Advances, Kursk Region (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (15:39 UTC) claims Russian forces (51st Airborne Regiment) cleared 2km of territory east of Sverdlikovo and control the western, southern, and central parts of Lebedevka.
Рыбарь (15:29) reports ongoing fighting on the Zhuravka-Sverdlikovo line, with Russian forces expanding control in the forest areas towards Noven'ke. Fighting is also reported in Lebedevka. Rybar's assessment focuses on Russia's objective of cutting the road from Yunakovka (Sumy Oblast) to Sudzha, which would significantly worsen Ukrainian logistics in the occupied part of Kursk Oblast.
Assessment: These reports REINFORCE PREVIOUS CLAIMS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the KURSK REGION BORDER AREA. The reported objective of cutting the road to Sudzha is STRATEGICALLY SIGNIFICANT as it would ISOLATE UKRAINIAN FORCES in the area. The reports of "very heavy fighting" suggest STRONG UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE. URGENT VERIFICATION is needed, but the consistency of reports from multiple Russian sources lends some credibility.
Russian Drone Mining in Volchansk (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (15:42 UTC) shows a video of a "VT-40" FPV drone bomber dropping anti-tank mines on Ukrainian positions in Volchansk (Kharkiv Oblast).
Assessment: This DEMONSTRATES the continued use of DRONES FOR OFFENSIVE PURPOSES, including REMOTE MINE LAYING. Targeting VOLCHANSK is SIGNIFICANT as it is RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE FRONT LINES, suggesting LONG-RANGE DRONE CAPABILITIES. This tactic POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT to Ukrainian troop movements and logistics in the area.
Z комитет + карта СВО (15:45) reports advances for Russian forces.
Assessment: While this source is KNOWN TO BE PRO-RUSSIAN, the reported claims of territory capture could indicate FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the SOUTH-DONETSK DIRECTION.
Ukrainian Hope to End War This Year (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (15:31 UTC) quotes President Zelensky expressing hope to end the war this year, but acknowledging the difficulty and the possibility of Russia returning in 10 years if Ukraine is not prepared.
Assessment: This statement reflects a DESIRE FOR A QUICK RESOLUTION, but also a REALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE CHALLENGES. The reference to Russia returning highlights the need for LONG-TERM SECURITY GUARANTEES and a STRONG DEFENSE CAPABILITY.
DeepState Reports on Russian Casualties (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (15:39) claims to have confirmed 100,000 Russian obituaries.
Assessment:CONFIRMATION of significant losses.
Updated Situation Summary
MAJOR DIPLOMATIC SHIFT: US BLOCKS G7 RESOLUTION, PROPOSES WEAKER UN RESOLUTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED/REPORTED): This represents a SIGNIFICANT SPLIT in the WESTERN COALITION and a POTENTIAL MOVE by the US TOWARDS A MORE NEUTRAL POSITION that could FAVOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT ON TERMS LESS FAVORABLE TO UKRAINE.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Multiple Russian sources report GAINS in the BORDER AREA, with the strategic objective of CUTTING OFF UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. URGENT VERIFICATION is needed.
RUSSIAN DRONE MINING IN VOLCHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of LONG-RANGE DRONE ATTACKS laying ANTI-TANK MINES in KHARKIV OBLAST.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). This includes continued Russian air and missile strikes, Ukrainian drone incursions into Russia, and concerns about drone activity in Sumy Oblast.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS US POLICY SHIFT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):
Urgently engage with US officials at the HIGHEST LEVEL to CLARIFY their position on the G7 and UN resolutions.
Express strong concerns about the WEAKENING OF THE UNITED WESTERN FRONT and the potential consequences for Ukraine.
Advocate for a UN resolution that CLEARLY CONDEMNS RUSSIAN AGGRESSION and DEMANDS THE WITHDRAWAL OF RUSSIAN TROOPS.
Explore alternative diplomatic avenues and STRENGTHEN RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER ALLIES to COUNTERACT THE POTENTIAL ISOLATION resulting from the US position.
Prepare a contingency plan for a scenario where the US-backed UN resolution is adopted, including strategies for MINIMIZING ITS NEGATIVE IMPACT on Ukraine's interests.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE MILITARY ACTION):
Deploy all available reconnaissance assets (drones, satellites, human intelligence) to VERIFY the reported Russian gains near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Assess the scale of any Russian presence and DETERMINE THEIR IMMEDIATE OBJECTIVES.
Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the area, particularly along the road to Sudzha.
Prepare for potential counter-offensives to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.
Increase security and patrols along the entire border in the Kursk and Sumy regions.
COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE MINING IN VOLCHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Increase surveillance and reconnaissance efforts in the VOLCHANSK AREA to DETECT AND TRACK Russian drone activity.
Deploy counter-drone measures, including electronic warfare systems, to DISRUPT OR DESTROY the drones.
Conduct demining operations to CLEAR areas potentially affected by the newly laid mines.
Alert local populations to the THREAT OF MINES and PROVIDE SAFETY INSTRUCTIONS.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT STATUS AGAINST AIR AND MISSILE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains valid, as previous reports indicated continued threats.
MONITOR DRONE ACTIVITY IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains valid, as previous reports indicated continued activity.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation is EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY represents a MAJOR CHALLENGE to Ukraine's diplomatic and military efforts. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and DRONE MINING TACTICS pose IMMEDIATE THREATS. RAPID DECISION-MAKING, EFFECTIVE DIPLOMACY, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION are ESSENTIAL to MITIGATE THE RISKS and MAINTAIN UKRAINE'S POSITION. The POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ESCALATION remains HIGH.
