Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 15:00 UTC

Changes and New Information (14:32 UTC - 15:00 UTC)

1. PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY OF THE COUNCIL OF EUROPE (PACE) DELEGATION MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Координаційний штаб з питань поводження з військовополоненими (14:35 UTC) reports a meeting with a PACE delegation. Parliamentarians from Finland, Lithuania, the UK, Monaco, Greece, Sweden, and Norway, as well as Ukrainian MPs and representatives to PACE, were present.
   • Assessment: This is SIGNIFICANT DIPLOMATICALLY. It demonstrates CONTINUED HIGH-LEVEL INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT with Ukraine, specifically on CRITICAL ISSUES like PRISONER OF WAR (POW) TREATMENT AND RETURNS, WEAPONS PROVISION, and SANCTIONS AGAINST RUSSIA. The discussion of a SPECIAL TRIBUNAL FOR WAR CRIMES is also IMPORTANT.

2. UK SANCTIONS ON RUSSIAN AND NORTH KOREAN ENTITIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (14:37) reported the implementation of UK sanctions.
   • Assessment: The sanctions are SIGNIFICANT as they target manufacturers of supplies used in weaponry.

3. RUSSIAN FPV DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN ARMORED VEHICLE, KURSK BORDER AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • MoD Russia (14:37 UTC) shows video of Russian FPV drones, controlled via fiber-optic cables, destroying a Ukrainian armored fighting vehicle in the Kursk border area.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE ACTIVITY AND EFFECTIVENESS in the KURSK BORDER AREA. The use of FIBER-OPTIC CABLES suggests an attempt to MITIGATE UKRAINIAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE (EW) CAPABILITIES. This is a TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES MONITORING. It highlights the ongoing TECHNOLOGICAL ARMS RACE in drone warfare.

4. RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES COMMANDER DEATH REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (14:38 UTC) and Kadyrov_95(14:37) reports Apti Alaudinov announcing the death of a Spetsnaz "Akhmat" battalion commander, callsign "Shustry,". The cause is stated as "long-term stress".
   • Assessment: This indicates extreme operational stress. While it does not impact the immediate battlefield, it's a relevant data point.

5. UKRAINIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO DESTROY RUSSIAN SOLDIERS, POKROVSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • STERNENKO (14:59) shows a video of drones dropping explosives onto Russian soldiers.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT MILITARY DEVELOPMENT. It CONFIRMS the use of FIBER-OPTIC CABLES to CONTROL DRONES, which provides a degree of PROTECTION AGAINST ELECTRONIC WARFARE (EW) INTERFERENCE. It also DEMONSTRATES the SUCCESSFUL DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT (an armored fighting vehicle), showcasing RUSSIAN TACTICAL CAPABILITY.

6. JOHNSON CALLS TRUMP'S PROPOSED AGREEMENT AN "AFFAIR" (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (14:38) reports former UK Prime Minister Johnson speaking about the proposed mineral agreement. * Assessment: The report is SIGNIFICANT. It indicates GROWING DISSENT within the WESTERN ALLIANCE regarding TRUMP'S APPROACH TO UKRAINE. Johnson's strong criticism ("AFFAIR") highlights CONCERNS that Trump's TRANSACTIONAL APPROACH (focusing on minerals) UNDERMINES UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY AND SECURITY.

7. US THREATENS TO WITHDRAW SUPPORT FROM G7 STATEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (14:51) reported the withdrawal of US support.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS INDICATIONS of a SHIFTING US POLICY towards LESS DIRECT CONDEMNATION OF RUSSIA.

8. REPORTED CONTINUED FIGHTING NEAR POHREBKY, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Два майора (14:44) reported the fighting. * Assessment: This suggests ONGOING FIGHTING AND POTENTIAL SLOW ADVANCES by Russian forces in this area. It REQUIRES VERIFICATION but highlights a CONTINUED AREA OF CONCERN on the RUSSIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER.

9. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN TANK NEAR ULAKLY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Воин DV (14:46) reported the attack. * Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN DRONE EFFECTIVENESS and TARGETING OF UKRAINIAN ARMOR. The location near ULAKLY suggests ONGOING FIGHTING IN THIS AREA, which aligns with the Ukrainian General Staff report of activity in the POKROVSK DIRECTION.

10. UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT FAILS TO SUPPORT ZELENSKY'S CONTINUED PRESIDENCY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Kotsnews (14:47 UTC) reports that the Ukrainian Rada failed to pass a resolution affirming Zelensky's continuation in office until the election of a successor.
    • Assessment: This is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT and REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If true, it indicates SIGNIFICANT POLITICAL INSTABILITY within Ukraine and POTENTIAL CHALLENGES TO ZELENSKY'S LEGITIMACY. The timing, IN THE PRESENCE OF EUROPEAN COMMISSIONERS, adds to the POLITICAL WEIGHT of this development.

11. RUSSIAN SHELLING OF SUMY OBLAST, CASUALTIES REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Офіс Генерального прокурора (14:47 UTC) reports one death and five injuries due to Russian shelling in Sumy Oblast. Specifically, a guided aerial bomb attack on Myropillya injured two pensioners, and artillery shelling of a farm in Shevchenkove, Velykopysarivska community, killed one worker and injured two.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN TARGETS AND INFRASTRUCTURE in SUMY OBLAST. It HIGHLIGHTS THE HUMANITARIAN COST of the conflict and PROVIDES EVIDENCE for potential WAR CRIMES INVESTIGATIONS.

12. EU TO DISCUSS MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE ON MARCH 6TH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (14:48 UTC) reports that a new military aid initiative for Ukraine will be discussed and details agreed upon at an extraordinary European summit on March 6th, according to Kaya Kallas.
    • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED EUROPEAN COMMITMENT to PROVIDING MILITARY ASSISTANCE to Ukraine. The fact that details and figures will be discussed suggests a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT new aid package.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian General Staff report CONFIRMS WIDESPREAD FIGHTING, with the POKROVSK DIRECTION remaining the MOST ACTIVE HOTSPOT. Russian sources also report activity and claimed gains near ULAKLY and in the KURSK BORDER AREA (needs verification).
• RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports confirm RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACKS in multiple locations, including the use of FIBER-OPTIC CABLES to MITIGATE EW INTERFERENCE (Kursk border area).
• UKRAINIAN POLITICAL INSTABILITY POTENTIALLY INCREASING (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): The reported failure of the Ukrainian Rada to affirm Zelensky's continuation in office RAISES SERIOUS QUESTIONS about his POLITICAL STANDING and POTENTIAL CHALLENGES TO LEADERSHIP (needs urgent verification).
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN TARGETS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports confirm RUSSIAN SHELLING in SUMY OBLAST resulting in CIVILIAN CASUALTIES.
• INTERNATIONAL ENGAGEMENT CONTINUES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Meetings with PACE and discussions of new EU military aid indicate ONGOING INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for Ukraine.
• POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY TOWARDS LESS DIRECT CONDEMNATION OF RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports suggest the US may be REDUCING ITS SUPPORT for STRONG CONDEMNATION of Russia in international forums.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORT ON UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENTARY VOTE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence and diplomatic channels to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the report that the Rada failed to support Zelensky's continuation in office.
   • Assess the political implications of this development, including potential CHALLENGES TO LEADERSHIP and IMPACT ON MILITARY OPERATIONS.
   • Prepare for potential political instability and ADJUST MILITARY STRATEGIES accordingly.

2. ADDRESS RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Accelerate efforts to DEVELOP AND DEPLOY COUNTER-DRONE SYSTEMS, including EW CAPABILITIES to JAM DRONE SIGNALS and PHYSICAL INTERCEPTION METHODS.
   • Focus on countering fiber-optic controlled drones, as this represents a NEW TACTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
   • Gather intelligence on Russian drone production and deployment to IDENTIFY VULNERABILITIES.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT ACROSS ALL FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

4. ADDRESS RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN TARGETS IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to document and investigate these attacks as POTENTIAL WAR CRIMES.
   • Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations.
   • Reinforce air defenses in the region, if possible.

5. MONITOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain close communication with EUROPEAN ALLIES regarding MILITARY AID and SANCTIONS.
   • Monitor US policy shifts and ADJUST DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS accordingly.

6. CONTINUE TO EXPLOIT UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

7. VERIFY RUSSIAN REPORTS OF ADVANCES AND LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE Russian claims of advances in the KURSK BORDER AREA and ULAKLY.
   • Assess the impact of any confirmed territorial changes or losses.

8. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN UKRAINE, CONTINUED RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE, and RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CIVILIANS are MAJOR CONCERNS. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC ACTION are ESSENTIAL. The POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ESCALATION remains HIGH. The UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING US POLICY and the REPORTED INTERNAL POLITICAL CHALLENGES IN UKRAINE add SIGNIFICANT LAYERS OF COMPLEXITY and REQUIRE IMMEDIATE AND SUSTAINED ATTENTION.