Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 12:00 UTC

Changes and New Information (11:30 UTC - 12:00 UTC)

1. CASUALTIES IN BRYANSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (11:56 UTC) reports that one Russian soldier was killed and another injured in Bryansk Oblast, Russia. On February 20th, a 27-year-old paratrooper stepped on a landmine near Lomakovka, losing his foot. On February 21st, a Ukrainian mortar attack near Novokirillovka (2.5 km from the Ukrainian border) killed a 35-year-old lieutenant from the 1st Motorized Rifle Battalion.
   • Assessment: These incidents CONFIRM COMBAT ACTIVITY AND CASUALTIES within RUSSIAN TERRITORY near the Ukrainian border. The use of a LANDMINE and MORTAR FIRE suggests CONTINUED CROSS-BORDER CLASHES. This SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of a UKRAINIAN INCURSION into Kursk Oblast and POTENTIAL ACTIVITY in other border regions.

2. UKRAINIAN PARLIAMENT FAILS TO PASS SUPPORT FOR ZELENSKY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (11:40 UTC) reports that a vote in the Ukrainian parliament that was to support Zelensky failed to pass.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:41 UTC) also reports the information.
   • Assessment: This highlights POTENTIAL POLITICAL INSTABILITY OR DISUNITY within Ukraine.

3. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN NOVOPAVLOVSKOE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (11:40) reports on the Novopavlovskoe Direction that Russian assault troops have captured the ravine between Novy Komar and Burlatskoye. The report claims that the frontline has been pushed to Razdolnoye - Kamennaya Balka - Skudnoe - Burlatskoye - Privolnoye - Novoselka.
   • Assessment: The text seems to suggest A RUSSIAN ADVANCE HAS OCCURRED, and there is an image to reinforce the claim.
   • Воин DV (11:50 UTC) reports on the South-Donetsk direction that Russian forces (5th Army of the "Vostok" group) are advancing west and northwest of Velikaya Novoselka. The report claims the liberation of Novoocheretovatoye and Novoselka, and the capture of a "multi-kilometer area". The report describes fierce Ukrainian resistance based on prepared strongholds and drone warfare, with Ukrainian infantry avoiding direct combat.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS CLAIMS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in this area. The report's detail and the mention of specific units and tactics INCREASES ITS CREDIBILITY, but INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION IS STILL REQUIRED. The description of Ukrainian tactics suggests a DEFENSIVE POSTURE focused on DELAYING ACTIONS rather than holding ground at all costs.

4. UNEXPLODED ORDNANCE IN SIVERSK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (11:42 UTC) shows video of an unexploded Russian aerial bomb in Siversk.
   • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN AERIAL BOMBARDMENT of Siversk and the DANGER POSED BY UNEXPLODED ORDNANCE.

5. ADDITIONAL INTERNATIONAL MILITARY AID ANNOUNCEMENTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • STERNENKO (11:36 UTC) reports that Denmark has announced a new aid package for Ukraine.
   • Оперативний ЗСУ (11:45 UTC) reports that Norway will allocate €3.5 billion in aid to Ukraine in 2025.
   • РБК-Україна (11:47 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (11:47 UTC) report that the UK is ready to send its troops to Ukraine along with other European countries, according to Starmer.
   • Assessment: This signifies that MAJOR SUPPORT FROM THE UK TO UKRAINE IS PLANNED, with troops to be sent.

6. ATTACK ON RUSSIAN CONSULATE IN FRANCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Басурин о главном (11:54 UTC) reports an attack on the Russian consulate in France, with three devices thrown, two of which exploded. The SVR had previously warned of planned attacks on Russian diplomatic missions.
   • Assessment: This is a SERIOUS INCIDENT that could ESCALATE TENSIONS between Russia and France/EU. It SUPPORTS THE SVR WARNING and suggests a POTENTIAL PATTERN OF ATTACKS on Russian diplomatic facilities.

7. REPORTED UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN ARMORED VEHICLES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (11:34 UTC) reports FPV-drone strikes by the "VT-40" group in the Pokrovsk direction, claiming to have hit a BMR based on a Leopard 2 and a BBM with Ukrainian personnel near Zverevo.
   • Assessment: This report is FURTHER EVIDENCE OF EFFECTIVE RUSSIAN DRONE WARFARE and TARGETING OF UKRAINIAN ARMOR. The claimed destruction of a Leopard 2-based vehicle, if true, is SIGNIFICANT.

Updated Situation Summary

• CASUALTIES IN BRYANSK OBLAST CONFIRM CROSS-BORDER CLASHES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The reported incidents of a landmine injury and a fatal mortar attack CONFIRM MILITARY ACTIVITY WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY near the Ukrainian border.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN NOVOPAVLOVSKOE DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Multiple Russian sources claim SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES in this sector, but INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION IS STILL NEEDED.
• UKRAINIAN POLITICAL INSTABILITY HIGHLIGHTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): The failure of a vote to support Zelensky suggests POTENTIAL INTERNAL DISUNITY.
• NATO INCREASING USV CAPABILITIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains valid.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES CONTINUE INSIDE RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains valid.
• INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES IN KHERSON REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains valid.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, NEEDS VERIFICATION): Remains valid.
• SUBSTANTIAL INTERNATIONAL MILITARY AID TO UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): New aid packages announced, further strengthening Ukrainian capabilities.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, BUT PREVIOUS THREAT REMAINS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The original ballistic threat remains.
• RUSSIAN FORCES CLAIM LIBERATION OF TOPOLI (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCES, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Remains valid.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN NOVOPAVLOVSKOE DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed Russian advances in the Novopavlovskoe direction, including the capture of the ravine between Novy Komar and Burlatskoye, and the alleged new frontline positions.
   • Assess the scale of any confirmed Russian presence and their IMMEDIATE OBJECTIVES.
   • Identify potential Ukrainian vulnerabilities and REINFORCE DEFENSES as needed.

2. INVESTIGATE CASUALTIES IN BRYANSK OBLAST AND ASSESS CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the incidents in Bryansk Oblast to CONFIRM THE CIRCUMSTANCES and IDENTIFY THE RESPONSIBLE PARTIES.
   • Assess the level of cross-border activity and the POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ESCALATION.
   • Increase border security measures if necessary.

3. MONITOR UKRAINIAN POLITICAL SITUATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather information on the reasons for the failed vote in the Ukrainian parliament and its POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS for GOVERNMENT STABILITY and DECISION-MAKING.
   • Assess the potential for political infighting or POLICY CHANGES.

4. INVESTIGATE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN CONSULATE IN FRANCE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Contact French authorities to GATHER INFORMATION on the attack and ENSURE A THOROUGH INVESTIGATION.
   • Assess the potential for further attacks on Russian diplomatic facilities and INCREASE SECURITY MEASURES as needed.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, the CASUALTIES IN BRYANSK OBLAST, the UKRAINIAN POLITICAL SITUATION, and the ATTACK ON THE RUSSIAN CONSULATE are KEY DEVELOPMENTS requiring IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.

The situation remains HIGHLY DYNAMIC AND VOLATILE. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, the CONTINUED CROSS-BORDER CLASHES, the POTENTIAL FOR POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN UKRAINE, and the INCREASING TENSIONS WITH RUSSIA create a COMPLEX AND DANGEROUS ENVIRONMENT. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC ACTION are ESSENTIAL.