Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 06:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (06:00 UTC - 06:30 UTC)

1. DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY IN KYIV (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (06:00 UTC), STERNENKO, РБК-Україна (06:02, 06:08 UTC) report the arrival of several high-ranking European and Canadian officials in Kyiv, including presidents of Lithuania and Latvia, prime ministers of Canada, Estonia, and Spain, the president of the European Commission, and the president of the European Council. Meetings are planned to discuss peace initiatives and security guarantees.
   • Assessment: This is PRIMARILY A SYMBOLIC SHOW OF SUPPORT for Ukraine on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion. It REINFORCES THE POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC ISOLATION OF RUSSIA. The discussions on security guarantees are POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, but DETAILS ARE LACKING. The high-level visits indicate CONTINUED WESTERN COMMITMENT to supporting Ukraine, BUT DO NOT DIRECTLY ALTER THE MILITARY SITUATION ON THE GROUND.

2. ZELENSKY ADDRESS (LOW PRIORITY):

   • Zelenskiy / Official (06:00 UTC) posts a video marking three years of resistance, gratitude, and Ukrainian heroism.
   • Assessment: This is STANDARD PRACTICE for morale boosting and national unity.

3. UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF SITREP (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (06:01 UTC) provides a detailed situation report (sitrep) as of 08:00 local time (06:00 UTC). Key points:
     • 96 combat clashes in the past 24 hours.
     • Russian forces conducted 3 missile strikes (4 missiles), 52 airstrikes (106 KABs), and over 5,000 shelling incidents (145 with MLRS), and used 3250 attack drones.
     • Airstrikes targeted numerous settlements across multiple regions.
     • Ukrainian forces hit 3 enemy concentration areas, 5 command posts, and 1 UAV command post.
     • Kharkiv Direction: Two enemy attempts to break through defenses near Vovchansk and Zapadne.
     • Kupyansk Direction: Four enemy attacks repelled near Petropavlivka, Zahryzove, and towards Bohuslavka.
     • Lyman Direction: 15 enemy attacks near Torske, Novoyehorivka, Novolyubivka, Yampolivka, Kuzmyne, and towards Novyi, Novoplatonivka, Shyykivka, Zelena Dolyna, and Cherneshchyna.
     • Siversk Direction: Two enemy attacks repelled near Bilohorivka and Ivano-Darivka.
     • Kramatorsk Direction: Two clashes near Chasiv Yar and towards Oleksandro-Shultyne.
     • Toretsk Direction: Nine enemy attacks near Toretsk and Krymske.
     • Pokrovsk Direction: 22 enemy assaults repelled towards Promin, Kotlyne, Andriivka, Bohdanivka, Ulakly, Novoserhiivka, Molodetske, Leontovychi, Pokrovsk, Myrolyubivka, and Vodyane Druhe.
     • Novopavlivsk Direction: 11 enemy attacks towards Kostyantynopil and Burlatske.
     • Orikhiv Direction: One enemy assault near Steppove.
     • Huliaipole and Prydniprovsk Directions: No enemy activity reported.
     • Volyn and Polissya Directions: No signs of enemy offensive groupings.
     • Kursk Operation (Ukrainian): Continued Ukrainian operations in the Kursk region, with 22 enemy airstrikes (45 KABs), 374 shelling incidents (7 with MLRS), and 19 Ukrainian assaults repelled.
     • Russian Losses (Ukrainian claim): 1,050 personnel, 9 tanks, 6 armored vehicles, 44 artillery systems, 3 MLRS, 217 operational-tactical UAVs, and 110 vehicles.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, with a PARTICULAR FOCUS ON THE POKROVSK DIRECTION. The reported Russian losses are LIKELY INFLATED but indicate SIGNIFICANT ATTRITION. The Ukrainian claim of operations in the Kursk region is NOTABLE and suggests CROSS-BORDER ACTIVITY. The high number of reported drone attacks highlights the CONTINUED IMPORTANCE OF DRONE WARFARE. The report CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE across multiple axes.

4. DRONE ATTACK REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Multiple sources (Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Оперативний ЗСУ, РБК-Україна) report on a large-scale Russian drone attack overnight. 185 drones (including Shahed and decoy types) were launched, with 113 claimed shot down and 71 "locationally lost" without negative consequences. Damage was reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Kyiv, and Khmelnytskyi regions.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A MAJOR DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE. The high number of drones launched indicates a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN EFFORT. The Ukrainian claim of shooting down 113 drones SUGGESTS RELATIVE AIR DEFENSE SUCCESS, but the reported damage confirms that SOME DRONES PENETRATED DEFENSES. The use of "decoy" drones is NOTEWORTHY and suggests a RUSSIAN TACTIC TO OVERWHELM AIR DEFENSES.

5. GORLOVKA SHELLING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Басурин о главном (06:27 UTC) reports a Ukrainian artillery strike on the center of Horlivka, claiming two civilian injuries.
   • Assessment: This is a CLAIM FROM A RUSSIAN-AFFILIATED SOURCE and REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it highlights the CONTINUED THREAT TO CIVILIANS in occupied areas.

6. RUSSIAN ADVANCES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (06:21 UTC) reports from Pushilin about the advancement across the entire frontline, and specifically mentioning success in the Kurakhovo-Novoselovka direction.
   • Assessment: Indicates a potential area of breakthrough for the Russian army.

7. OTHER REPORTS (LOW PRIORITY):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (06:19 UTC) reports Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure in Kostyantynivka, claiming destruction of equipment and positions. (UNCONFIRMED)
   • Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (06:26 UTC) reports on the overnight and past-day situation:
     • Air strikes with KAB bombs in multiple settlements.
     • Damage to structures and an agricultural business in different areas.
     • Drone strikes on multiple locations.
     • One civilian injured by an explosive device.
     • Confirms information reported in previous sitreps about the attacks in the Kharkiv and Kupyansk directions.
   • AV БогомаZ (06:13) reports that a drone was downed in Bryansk.
   • Various reports on political statements, sanctions updates, and economic disruptions (e.g., SPB Exchange trading suspension).

Updated Situation Summary

• CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian General Staff sitrep CONFIRMS ongoing battles, particularly in the POKROVSK DIRECTION.
• MAJOR RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A large-scale drone attack targeted multiple regions of Ukraine, with 113 drones claimed shot down, but damage reported in several areas.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES CLAIMED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian sources claim advances across the frontline, particularly in the Kurakhovo-Novoselovka direction.
• DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY IN KYIV (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): High-level visits from European and Canadian officials underscore continued political support for Ukraine.
• GORLOVKA SHELLING REPORTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): A Russian source claims Ukrainian shelling injured civilians in Horlivka.
• UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS IN KURSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): The Ukrainian General Staff claims ongoing operations in the Kursk region of Russia.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • The SCALE OF THE RECENT DRONE ATTACK requires CONTINUED HIGH ALERT for air defense systems across ALL OF UKRAINE.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
   • Issue continuous warnings to civilians, urging them to TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY during air raid alerts.
   • Analyze the flight paths and targeting patterns of the recent drone attack to OPTIMIZE AIR DEFENSE DEPLOYMENTS.
   • Assess the effectiveness of decoy drones used by Russia and DEVELOP COUNTERMEASURES.

2. VERIFY AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported Russian advances, particularly in the Kurakhovo-Novoselovka direction.
   • Assess the extent of any Russian gains and the STRENGTH OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSES in these areas.
   • Prepare for potential counteroffensives to regain control of lost territory.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian positions in the surrounding areas to PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

3. INVESTIGATE GORLOVKA SHELLING REPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather independent information to VERIFY the reported shelling of Horlivka and the claimed civilian casualties.
   • Determine the source of the shelling if possible.

4. ASSESS UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS IN KURSK REGION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather further intelligence on the nature and extent of Ukrainian operations in the Kursk region.
   • Evaluate the strategic objectives and potential risks of these operations.
   • Monitor Russian reactions and potential retaliatory actions.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING FRONT LINES FOR ANY CHANGES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain constant surveillance of all front lines for any signs of new offensives or significant movements.

6. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES):

   • All other recommendations from previous reports remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated above.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DYNAMIC AND DANGEROUS. The LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK and CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS highlight the PERSISTENT THREAT to Ukraine. VERIFYING RUSSIAN ADVANCE CLAIMS and ASSESSING UKRAINIAN OPERATIONS IN THE KURSK REGION are IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES. MAINTAINING AIR DEFENSE READINESS and CONTINUOUS MONITORING of the front lines are ESSENTIAL. The diplomatic activity in Kyiv underscores continued international support, but the focus remains on the military situation on the ground.