Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 24, 2025, 01:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (01:00 UTC - 01:30 UTC)

1. CONFIRMED DRONES APPROACHING STAROKOSTYANTYNIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (01:03 UTC) reports "2 мопеда" (two mopeds, slang for drones) approaching Starokostyantyniv, warning it will be "loud."
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS AND REINFORCES the previous report (00:59 UTC) of a drone heading towards Starokostyantyniv. The report of TWO DRONES INCREASES THE THREAT LEVEL. The warning of it being "loud" suggests IMMINENT IMPACT. This is CRITICAL for air defense forces in the area.

2. UPDATED GERMAN ELECTION RESULTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (01:03 UTC) provides updated election results, indicating a near-complete count (almost 50 million votes).
     • CDU/CSU: 28.6% (209 seats)
     • AfD: 20.8% (152 seats)
     • SPD: 16.4% (120 seats)
     • Greens: 11.6% (85 seats)
     • Left: 8.8% (64 seats)
     • Free Democrats: 4.3% (0 seats)
     • Sarah Wagenknecht's Bloc: 4.97% (0 seats)
   • They project a likely coalition of CDU/CSU + SPD with approximately 329 seats (315 needed). They note Sarah Wagenknecht's bloc "flew by" (failed to reach the threshold). They also highlight the significant gains by the Left (+3.9%) and AfD (+10.4%) compared to 2021, and the substantial loss for the SPD (-9.3%).
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE CDU/CSU VICTORY and SOLIDIFIES THE PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT of a likely CDU/CSU + SPD coalition. The FAILURE OF WAGENKNECHT'S PARTY to enter the Bundestag is POSITIVE from a Ukrainian perspective, given her pro-Russian stance. The GAINS BY THE LEFT AND AFD are CONCERNING, reflecting a SHIFT IN THE GERMAN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE that could impact support for Ukraine. The SIGNIFICANT LOSSES FOR THE SPD could weaken their position within the coalition.

3. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA TARGETING UKRAINIANS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (01:04 UTC) posts images and messages urging Ukrainians to join the "people's resistance" and "help Russia win" by providing information through an anonymous bot (@nabor_partizan_bot).
   • Assessment: This is a CLEAR ATTEMPT AT RECRUITMENT AND INFORMATION WARFARE by Russia. The offer of "safe and fast money" is a COMMON TACTIC to entice collaboration. The anonymity claim is DUBIOUS and intended to reduce the perceived risk. This poses a LOW BUT NON-ZERO THREAT of espionage and sabotage.

4. RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (01:12 UTC) reports Russian advances in Bilohorivka, near Makiivka, and near Ocheretuvate.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT that REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, these advances indicate INCREASED RUSSIAN PRESSURE in these areas and POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGHS. This could THREATEN UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE LINES and REQUIRE IMMEDIATE REINFORCEMENTS.

5. POLAND ACCUSED OF MISAPPROPRIATING EU FUNDS FOR UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (01:15 UTC) reports, citing RMF, that Poland has "stolen" €91 million in EU funds intended for generators for Ukraine, allegedly using the money for the "Law and Justice" party's election campaign.
   • Assessment: This report, from a RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, it would be a MAJOR SCANDAL that could DAMAGE RELATIONS BETWEEN POLAND AND UKRAINE and UNDERMINE EU SUPPORT EFFORTS. It could also be used by Russia to SOW DISCORD among Ukraine's allies.

6. RUSSIAN USE OF UR-77 "ZMEI GORYNYCH" IN VOLCHANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (01:23 UTC) shows video of a UR-77 "Zmei Gorynych" (a mine-clearing vehicle) being used to attack an enemy strongpoint in Volchansk, claiming it was difficult to capture otherwise.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE USE OF A UR-77 in an OFFENSIVE ROLE in VOLCHANSK. This is NOT ITS INTENDED PURPOSE, indicating a POTENTIAL SHORTAGE OF APPROPRIATE WEAPONRY or a DESIRE TO USE OVERWHELMING FORCE. The use of a mine-clearing vehicle against a strongpoint suggests a HIGH LEVEL OF DESTRUCTION. This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS OF INTENSE FIGHTING in the area.

Updated Situation Summary

• IMMINENT DRONE ATTACK ON STAROKOSTYANTYNIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Two drones are confirmed to be approaching Starokostyantyniv, posing an IMMEDIATE THREAT.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces are reported to have advanced in Bilohorivka, near Makiivka, and near Ocheretuvate, requiring URGENT VERIFICATION.
• GERMAN ELECTION RESULTS CONFIRMED, SHIFT IN POLITICAL LANDSCAPE (MEDIUM PRIORITY): The CDU/CSU victory is confirmed, with a likely coalition with the SPD. The gains by the Left and AfD are concerning.
• RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA EFFORTS CONTINUE (LOW PRIORITY): Russia is actively attempting to recruit Ukrainian collaborators.
• POLAND ACCUSED OF MISAPPROPRIATING EU FUNDS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Allegations of Poland misusing EU funds for Ukraine require investigation.
• RUSSIAN FORCES USE MINE-CLEARING VEHICLE OFFENSIVELY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): The use of a UR-77 in Volchansk indicates a potentially destructive tactic.
• ONGOING, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains a critical threat, although no new specific targets were reported in this update beyond Starokostyantyniv.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATELY ACTIVATE AIR DEFENSES IN STAROKOSTYANTYNIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available air defense assets to INTERCEPT THE TWO APPROACHING DRONES.
   • Issue warnings to civilians in Starokostyantyniv to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • Coordinate with regional and national air defense networks to TRACK THE DRONES and PROVIDE SUPPORT if needed.

2. URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance units and UTILIZE DRONE SURVEILLANCE to CONFIRM THE REPORTED ADVANCES in Bilohorivka, near Makiivka, and near Ocheretuvate.
   • Assess the extent of the advances and the IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS.
   • Prepare to deploy reinforcements to these areas if the advances are confirmed and threaten Ukrainian lines.

3. INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF POLAND MISUSING EU FUNDS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Contact EU officials to REQUEST AN INVESTIGATION into the allegations.
   • Gather information from Ukrainian sources to ASSESS THE IMPACT of the alleged misappropriation on aid delivery.
   • Prepare a diplomatic response to Poland if the allegations are substantiated.

4. MONITOR RUSSIAN USE OF UNCONVENTIONAL WEAPONRY (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the frequency and effectiveness of the UR-77 being used in offensive roles.
   • Develop counter-tactics to mitigate the threat posed by this weapon.
   • Document the use of this weapon for potential war crimes investigations.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA EFFORTS (LOW PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Monitor social media and other platforms for Russian recruitment efforts.
   • Issue public warnings about the dangers of collaborating with Russia.
   • Counter Russian narratives with accurate information about the war and its consequences.

6. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR DRONE ATTACKS ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense efforts across ALL AFFECTED REGIONS, with SPECIFIC AND IMMEDIATE FOCUS on STAROKOSTYANTYNIV.
   • Maintain constant vigilance and RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES.

7. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS IN GERMAN GOVERNMENT FORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue to follow and analyze the situation.

8. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations from the previous updates remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains CRITICAL. The IMMINENT DRONE ATTACK on Starokostyantyniv requires IMMEDIATE ACTION. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES need URGENT VERIFICATION and could necessitate a RAPID MILITARY RESPONSE.