Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 20:00 UTC
Changes and New Information (19:31 UTC - 20:00 UTC)
DRONE THREAT SHIFTS TO ODESSA/CHORNOMORSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Николаевский Ванёк (19:31 UTC, 19:38 UTC) reports 4, then 10, "mopeds" (likely Shahed drones) approaching Chornomorsk/Odesa from the sea.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України (19:32 UTC, 19:46 UTC) confirms the drone threat to Odesa Oblast and specifically to Chornomorsk.
Nikolaevskiy Vanyok(19:52) Reports 2 more drones heading towards Odesa.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR SHIFT in the air threat. ODESSA AND ITS PORT FACILITIES ARE NOW THE PRIMARY TARGET. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to ACTIVATE AIR DEFENSES and WARN THE POPULATION. The approach from the sea suggests the use of BLACK SEA LAUNCH POINTS.
AIR DEFENSE ACTIVE IN KYIV REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:35 UTC) reports air defense activity in Kyiv Oblast.
Assessment: This suggests CONTINUED DRONE THREAT to the KYIV REGION, although potentially RESIDUAL from earlier waves. AIR DEFENSES REMAIN ACTIVE.
DRONE THREAT TO CHERNIHIV (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України (19:56 UTC) reports a drone approaching Chernihiv from the east.
Assessment: NEW THREAT AXIS. IMMEDIATE ALERT for Chernihiv air defenses.
GUIDED AERIAL BOMB LAUNCH IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України (19:58 UTC) reports the launch of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in Sumy Oblast.
Assessment: This is an IMMEDIATE THREAT. It REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of air threats in the region. URGENT ACTION is needed to ACTIVATE AIR DEFENSES and WARN THE POPULATION.
✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (19:32 UTC) posts video purportedly showing Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops in Toretsk. The footage claims to show close-quarters combat and heavy use of drones due to Russian numerical superiority.
Assessment: This PROVIDES INSIGHT into the INTENSE URBAN WARFARE ongoing in TORETSK. The video HIGHLIGHTS UKRAINIAN RELIANCE ON DRONES for both reconnaissance and attack in close-quarters combat, due to RUSSIAN NUMERICAL SUPERIORITY. This reinforces the NEED FOR CONTINUED DRONE SUPPORT AND MUNITIONS.
RUSSIAN MEDICAL UNIT VIDEO (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (19:33 UTC) posts a video of medics from the 39th OMEDO (a) VDV (airborne medical unit).
Assessment: Standard morale-boosting material. LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE.
Филолог в засаде (19:37) discusses a potential false report from February 7th, claiming that the Russian Ministry of Defense made a false announcement about the liberation of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk).
Assessment:REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING.
PROPAGANDA AND INFORMATION WARFARE (LOW/MEDIUM PRIORITY, VARIOUS SOURCES):
Several sources, including WarGonzo (19:38), Janus Putkonen (19:40), STERNENKO (19:40), БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (19:43), НгП раZVедка (19:42), Colonelcassad (19:59), Два майора (19:59) post propaganda or fundraising messages.
Assessment: Ongoing information warfare efforts.
Colonelcassad(19:46) claims the deaths of Colombian mercenaries.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны(19:48) posts claims from the UEFA president.
GERMAN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
РБК-Україна (19:38) reports on Trump's comments on the German elections.
Colonelcassad(19:43) claims CDU/CSU victory.
ТАСС(19:49) says that Scholz won't participate in coalition negotiations.
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:58) reports that Friedrich Merz ruled out a coalition with the AfD.
Assessment: Not immediately relevant to the military situation in Ukraine.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (19:49) and Оперативний ЗСУ (19:51) report on the "Istanbul Agreement" as a possible benchmark for peace, but note Ukrainian opposition to its terms.
* Assessment:REINFORCES previous diplomatic activity reports, but also HIGHLIGHTS UKRAINIAN RESISTANCE to concessions.
Updated Situation Summary
DRONE THREAT SHIFTS TO ODESSA/CHORNOMORSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MULTIPLE DRONES approaching from the BLACK SEA. AIR DEFENSES ACTIVE. IMMEDIATE THREAT. NEW THREAT to CHERNIHIV from the east.
CONTINUED AIR THREATS IN SUMY AND KYIV REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):KAB LAUNCHES in SUMY OBLAST. AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY in KYIV OBLAST.
INTENSE URBAN WARFARE IN TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):UKRAINIAN FORCES RELYING HEAVILY ON DRONES due to RUSSIAN NUMERICAL SUPERIORITY.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES REMAIN UNVERIFIED (HIGH PRIORITY): All previous claims of advances require ongoing verification.
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY AND "ISTANBUL AGREEMENT" DISCUSSION (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Continued discussion, but Ukrainian resistance to concessions is highlighted.
INFORMATION WARFARE CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Both sides are actively engaged in propaganda and disinformation campaigns.
Updated Recommendations
PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE IN ODESSA/CHORNOMORSK AND CHERNIHIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Urgently deploy all available air defense assets to ODESSA AND CHORNOMORSK to intercept drones approaching from the BLACK SEA.
Activate air defenses in CHERNIHIV to address the reported drone threat from the east.
Issue public warnings and ADVISE CIVILIANS TO TAKE SHELTER in affected areas.
MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE ALERT IN KYIV AND SUMY REGIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Maintain air defense activity in KYIV OBLAST due to continued, though potentially residual, threat.
Respond to KAB launches in SUMY OBLAST with AIR DEFENSES and PUBLIC WARNINGS.
SUPPORT DRONE OPERATIONS IN TORETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Ensure adequate supply of drones and munitions to Ukrainian forces engaged in TORETSK.
Provide intelligence support to IDENTIFY AND TARGET RUSSIAN POSITIONS.
Address the issue of Russian numerical superiority through STRATEGIC REINFORCEMENTS or ADJUSTMENT OF TACTICS.
Continue to gather intelligence on potential negotiations and peace proposals.
Reinforce Ukrainian position against UNACCEPTABLE CONCESSIONS.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):
Address the reported false claims of Russian advances, particularly regarding TORETSK.
Continue to highlight Ukrainian successes and EXPOSE RUSSIAN ATROCITIES.
Disseminate accurate information about the AIR THREAT and AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The SHIFT OF THE DRONE THREAT TO ODESSA/CHORNOMORSK is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT requiring IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. CONTINUED AIR DEFENSE VIGILANCE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND A ROBUST COUNTER-INFORMATION STRATEGY are ESSENTIAL. The INTENSE URBAN WARFARE IN TORETSK highlights the NEED FOR CONTINUED SUPPORT TO UKRAINIAN FORCES.
