Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 10:30 UTC
Changes and New Information (10:00 UTC - 10:30 UTC)
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK OBLAST CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Kotsnews (10:01 UTC) reiterates the Russian MoD claim of liberating Ulakly and Novoandreevka. Provides additional context:
Ulakly: Located 12km west of Kurakhovo, 2.5km east of Konstantynopil. Claims Ukrainian forces are trapped in a cauldron near Konstantynopil, with Russian advances from the north (Andriivka) and south (Zelenivka, Sukhi Yaly).
Novoandreevka: Located 17km west of Selidovo, 18km southwest of Pokrovsk. Claims the objective is to secure the flanks before a full-scale assault on Pokrovsk (population 60,000). Reports Russian advances towards the border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, with 11km remaining. Mentions advances near Novooelizavetivka and Nadezhdinka, with 3km remaining to Kotiarivka.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS and PROVIDES ADDITIONAL TACTICAL CONTEXT. The claims of a developing cauldron near Konstantynopil and the focus on securing flanks before an assault on Pokrovsk are SIGNIFICANT. This report SUPPORTS THE ASSESSMENT of CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in DONETSK OBLAST and INCREASED PRESSURE on UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE LINES.
RUSSIAN MOD AWARDS (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (10:09, 10:14 UTC) reports that Defence Minister Andrei Belousov thanked the command and personnel of the 39th Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade and the 1472nd Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment for successfully carrying out combat missions during the liberation of Ulakly.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF ULAKLY. It is also standard PROPAGANDA designed to BOOST MORALE.
RUSSIAN REPORT OF UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (10:14 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces lost over 200 personnel in the Kursk region over the past 24 hours.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING IN THE KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA. The reported casualty figure is HIGH and REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN INCURSION into RUSSIAN TERRITORY and a MAJOR ESCALATION of the conflict.
RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS ON SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (10:14 UTC), Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (10:13 UTC) reports that the Russian army struck the Sumy community with a ballistic missile. The impact occurred outside of populated areas.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS ongoing RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS in the SUMY REGION. The use of a ballistic missile is SIGNIFICANT and indicates a POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR MAKEEVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Z комитет + карта СВО (10:15, 10:17 UTC) reports Russian advances near Makiivka and Novoliubivka.
Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it represents a FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCE in this area.
PLANNED PEACE TALKS (LOW PRIORITY):
ТАСС (10:09 UTC) reports that talks are planned for Turkey.
Assessment: This information is currently LOW VALUE until the plans are finalized.
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:11 UTC) claims that the "Kyiv regime" is abducting and mobilizing Orthodox priests. Reports the abduction of a protodeacon in Kyiv on February 20th and a priest in the Zhytomyr region on February 19th.
Assessment: This report REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If true, it represents a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT and could FURTHER EXACERBATE TENSIONS between the UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT and the UKRAINIAN ORTHODOX CHURCH. It is POSSIBLE PROPAGANDA aimed at discrediting the Ukrainian government.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (10:27 UTC) reports that Ukrainian forces, including the Consolidated Rifle Brigade and the 35th Separate Marine Brigade, successfully repelled a Russian assault. Claims five Russian soldiers killed and one captured (reportedly from West Africa, mobilized in Saratov, Russia).
Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it represents a SUCCESSFUL UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE OPERATION. The claim of a captured soldier from West Africa is UNUSUAL and NEEDS FURTHER INVESTIGATION.
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian MoD and supporting sources CONFIRM THE CAPTURE OF ULAKLY AND NOVOANDREEVKA, with additional tactical context indicating a developing cauldron near Konstantynopil and a focus on securing flanks before a potential assault on Pokrovsk. REPORTS OF ADVANCES NEAR MAKEEVKA.
CLAIMED HIGH UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES IN KURSK REGION OF RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a MAJOR ESCALATION.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN AERIAL ATTACKS ON SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed use of a ballistic missile.
Use all available intelligence assets to determine whether the attack was repelled.
Assess the impact on Russian operations in the region.
Attempt to confirm whether a West African soldier was actually captured.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation continues to be EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES in DONETSK OBLAST, the CLAIMED HIGH UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES IN RUSSIA, and the CONTINUED AERIAL ATTACKS represent MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS that require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, EFFECTIVE ANALYSIS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION remain ESSENTIAL.
