Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 09:30 UTC
Changes and New Information (09:01 UTC - 09:30 UTC)
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (09:14 UTC) claims Russian forces are continuing to push Ukrainian forces out of Kursk Oblast. Specific claims include active operations against Ukrainian positions in the northern part of Orlovka, with Ukrainian forces reportedly retreating from Pogrebkov and attempting to hold defensive positions in basements. Claims the use of TOS (thermobaric) systems by Russian forces, and that the liberation of Maryevka will allow for a flanking attack on Orlovka.
Assessment: This is a HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT CLAIM of RUSSIAN ADVANCES INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY. It REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of a UKRAINIAN INCURSION into Kursk Oblast. The claim of using TOS systems indicates a HIGH INTENSITY OF COMBAT. This report is from a PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE and should be treated with EXTREME CAUTION until independently confirmed. The claim of Ukrainian incursion, and the claim that Russian forces are expelling them requires EXTREME PRIORITY VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS LIBERATION OF ULAKLY AND NOVOANDREEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (09:04 UTC, 09:05 UTC, 09:17 UTC), Военкор Котенок (09:09 UTC, 09:22 UTC) and Colonelcassad (09:17) report the Russian MoD claims to have liberated Ulakly and Novoandreevka in the DNR.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN ADVANCES in these areas. If true, it represents a SIGNIFICANT TACTICAL GAIN for Russian forces and a FURTHER DETERIORATION of the Ukrainian defensive line in this sector. The confirmation by multiple pro-Russian sources, including the MoD, INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD of these claims being accurate, but INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is still recommended.
RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS STRIKES ON UKRAINIAN COMMAND MEETINGS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (09:05) Reports that the Russian MoD has carried out attacks that have targeted Ukrainian commanding staff meeting places.
Assessment: This seems very plausible, given the claims about the attacks on Krivoy Rog.
RUSSIAN MoD BRIEFING HIGHLIGHTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (09:15 UTC) provides a summary of the latest Russian MoD briefing:
Claims of Ukrainian losses: up to 115 in "Sever" and "Dnepr" group zones, up to 190 in the "West" zone, and up to 165 in the "South" zone.
Claims of Russian air defense shooting down 4 Hammer guided bombs, a HIMARS rocket, and 73 drones.
Assessment: These are STANDARD CLAIMS made in daily briefings and should be treated with CAUTION. The claimed number of drones shot down is SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER than previous claims of 267, highlighting the DISCREPANCY IN REPORTING.
CLAIMED RECORD NUMBER OF DRONES LAUNCHED BY RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (09:10 UTC) claims that a record number of 267 drones were launched at Ukraine overnight. Zelenskiy / Official (09:10) and РБК-Україна (09:17) also claim the 267 number of drones.
Assessment: This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS the MUCH LOWER number of drones (30) claimed to have been intercepted by Russian air defenses overnight reported by Север.Реалии (08:36 UTC), and the MoD briefing (09:15) claiming 73 drones downed. This MAJOR DISCREPANCY highlights the INFORMATION WARFARE aspect of the conflict.
UKRAINE REFUSES US MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (09:23 UTC), citing Bloomberg, reports that Ukraine refused a US proposal for a $500 billion fund in exchange for access to Ukrainian mineral resources. Ukraine reportedly argued that the actual amount of US aid was closer to $90 billion.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT that could IMPACT FUTURE US-UKRAINE RELATIONS and the AVAILABILITY OF FUNDING for the war effort. The DISCREPANCY IN VALUATION of US aid is NOTABLE. This report requires FURTHER INVESTIGATION and INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
KYIV MILITARY ADMINISTRATION UPDATE (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
* КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (09:27 UTC) releases a video describing the events of the air attacks.
Assessment: The video confirms that there have been ongoing attacks.
Updated Situation Summary
CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES INSIDE RUSSIA, KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED):MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, Russian forces are CLAIMING TO PUSH BACK UKRAINIAN FORCES within RUSSIAN TERRITORY.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian MoD CLAIMS LIBERATION OF ULAKLY AND NOVOANDREEVKA, indicating TACTICAL GAINS for Russian forces.
CLAIMED ISKANDER STRIKE ON FOREIGN INSTRUCTORS IN KRIVOY ROG (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): This remains the MOST SIGNIFICANT NEW DEVELOPMENT and requires IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION.
CONTINUED AND WIDESPREAD AIR THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ongoing air raids and missile strikes are confirmed.
EXTENSIVE UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY TARGETING RUSSIAN TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russia claims to have intercepted a TOTAL OF 30 DRONES OVERNIGHT, highlighting the SCALE AND INTENSITY of the Ukrainian drone campaign. There are reports of 267 drones.
CONFIRMED DAMAGE TO CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Drone debris caused damage in four districts of Kyiv, including houses, cars, and a postal service building. NO CASUALTIES REPORTED.
UKRAINIAN MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Ukraine reportedly REFUSED the $500 billion fund proposal.
POTENTIAL THEFT OF UKRAINIAN AID FUNDS IN POLAND (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Requires FURTHER INVESTIGATION.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
INVESTIGATE CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence, signal intercepts) to VERIFY the claimed Russian advances and Ukrainian retreat in Kursk Oblast, specifically around Orlovka, Pogrebkov, and Maryevka.
Assess the extent of Ukrainian penetration into Russian territory and the CURRENT STATUS OF THE BORDER REGION.
Determine the validity of claims regarding the use of TOS systems.
Prepare for potential escalation if Russian claims of a significant Ukrainian incursion are confirmed.
CONFIRM AND ASSESS RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Utilize intelligence assets to INDEPENDENTLY CONFIRM the claimed liberation of Ulakly and Novoandreevka by Russian forces.
Assess the impact of these potential territorial changes on the OVERALL UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE LINE in the Donetsk region.
Identify potential new Russian offensive axes and UKRAINIAN VULNERABILITIES.
INVESTIGATE CLAIMED ISKANDER STRIKE IN KRIVOY ROG (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): This remains UNCHANGED and a TOP PRIORITY.
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): This remains UNCHANGED and a TOP PRIORITY.
ADDRESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): This remains UNCHANGED.
ADDRESS DAMAGE IN KYIV (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): This remains UNCHANGED.
CLARIFY STATUS OF UKRAINIAN MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL NEGOTIATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ACTION):
Seek urgent clarification from US and Ukrainian sources regarding the status of negotiations and the reasons for Ukraine's reported refusal of the $500 billion proposal.
Assess the potential impact on future US-Ukraine relations and the AVAILABILITY OF FUNDING for the war effort.
Explore alternative funding options and potential consequences of reduced US aid.
INVESTIGATE ALLEGED THEFT OF UKRAINIAN AID FUNDS IN POLAND (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): This remains UNCHANGED.
VERIFY AND ASSESS DISCREPANCIES IN DRONE ATTACK REPORTING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Investigate the vast discrepancy between the claimed number of drones launched by Russia (267) and the number claimed to have been intercepted by Russian air defenses (30 or 73).
Assess the accuracy of both Ukrainian and Russian claims.
Determine the implications for AIR DEFENSE EFFECTIVENESS and POTENTIAL UNDETECTED DRONE STRIKES.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES both INSIDE RUSSIA (Kursk Oblast) and in DONETSK OBLAST, coupled with the CONTINUED AIR THREAT and the DISPUTE OVER US AID, represent MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS that require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION. The DISCREPANCIES IN REPORTING regarding drone attacks highlight the INFORMATION WARFARE aspect of the conflict and the NEED FOR ACCURATE INTELLIGENCE. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, EFFECTIVE AIR DEFENSE, THOROUGH INVESTIGATION OF CLAIMS, AND COORDINATED MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC ACTION remain ESSENTIAL.
