Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 08:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (08:00 UTC - 08:30 UTC)

1. CONTINUED AND EXPANDING AIR THREATS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (08:00 UTC, 08:19 UTC, 08:26 UTC, 08:27 UTC, 08:28 UTC) reports:
     • Guided bomb launches on SUMY OBLAST.
     • Activity of Russian tactical aviation in the EASTERN DIRECTION, with a threat of aviation weapons use for frontline areas.
     • Missile threat for KHARKIV OBLAST.
     • Missile threat for CHERNIHIV AND POLTAVA OBLASTS.
     • Guided bomb launches on KHARKIV OBLAST.
     • Activity of Russian tactical aviation in the SOUTH-EASTERN DIRECTION, with a threat of aviation weapons use for frontline areas.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (08:26 UTC) issued an air raid alert for ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST.
   • Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUATION AND EXPANSION of the air threat. KHARKIV OBLAST is under BOTH MISSILE AND GUIDED BOMB THREATS. The alerts for CHERNIHIV, POLTAVA, AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS, combined with reports of tactical aviation activity, indicate a WIDESPREAD AND MULTI-FACETED AIR ATTACK is UNDERWAY OR IMMINENT.

2. DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (08:30 UTC) reports that three civilians were injured as a result of the overnight drone attack on Odesa. A private residential building was also damaged.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS civilian casualties and infrastructure damage from the overnight drone attack, highlighting the HUMAN COST of the ongoing conflict.

3. CLAIMED UKRAINIAN REFUSAL OF US MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (08:25 UTC), citing Bloomberg, reports that Ukraine refused to create a $500 billion fund that would have been part of an agreement to give the US a share of Ukraine's mineral resources. Ukraine claims the actual amount of US aid is closer to $90 billion.
   • Assessment: Confirms that the $500 billion fund was rejected.

4. "RESOURCE DEAL" DETAILS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Kotsnews, citing The New York Times, The Hill, and Financial Times (08:25 UTC), reports details about a potential "resource deal" between the US and Ukraine. * NYT: Ukraine would have to give US 50% of its natural resources income. * The Hill: Russia must be integrated into a western security system. * FT: Russia will have a reduced income due to the EU's plan to import less fertilizer.
   • Assessment: These claims require verification.

5. UKRAINIAN F-16 OPERATIONS NEAR KURSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Рыбарь (08:01 UTC) reports increased activity of Ukrainian F-16 fighters in the Kursk direction, operating in conjunction with MiG-29s. Claims include:
     • F-16s flying in groups of three (one F-16, two MiG-29s).
     • MiG-29s used for close-range attacks with guided bombs (JDAM, HAMMER), while F-16s likely act as air superiority fighters with AIM-120C air-to-air missiles.
     • Flights originating from Vasylkiv and Cherkasy airfields.
     • One MiG-29 reportedly shot down on February 21st near Lypova Dolyna (75 km southwest of Sumy).
     • F-16s also observed on the Kakhovka and South-Donetsk directions.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. The reported use of F-16s in conjunction with MiG-29s, using guided bombs, indicates a NEW TACTICAL APPROACH by the Ukrainian Air Force. The claim of a MiG-29 being shot down REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION. The reported presence of F-16s on multiple fronts suggests a BROAD DEPLOYMENT of these aircraft. This SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE THREAT to Russian forces and requires IMMEDIATE ADAPTATION of Russian air defense strategies.

6. DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN POSITIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Народная милиция ДНР (08:02 UTC) claims to have destroyed Ukrainian positions using kamikaze drones. Video provided.

   • Assessment: The video CONFIRMS a successful drone strike on a person and trench.

7. CLAIMED TRUMP-PUTIN PHONE CALL LEAK (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Alex Parker Returns (08:28 UTC) claims a leak of a phone call between Trump and Putin, with details supposedly available on The Economist.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The credibility of this claim is LOW, given the source and the nature of the alleged leak.

Updated Situation Summary

• WIDESPREAD AND ESCALATING AIR THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): MULTIPLE REGIONS under MISSILE AND GUIDED BOMB THREATS. KHARKIV OBLAST faces BOTH. Tactical aviation activity in the EAST AND SOUTH-EAST. ZAPORIZHZHIA under air alert.
• CONFIRMED CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Three civilians injured, and a private house damaged in the overnight drone attack.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES INSIDE RUSSIA REMAINS A CRITICAL CONCERN (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The situation is UNCHANGED but remains a TOP PRIORITY for investigation.
• UKRAINIAN F-16 OPERATIONS NEAR KURSK REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, indicating a NEW TACTICAL APPROACH and a BROADER DEPLOYMENT of F-16s.
• UKRAINIAN MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Ukraine reportedly REFUSED the $500 billion fund proposal.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT, PRIORITIZE KHARKIV, CHERNIHIV, POLTAVA, AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain and reinforce air defense systems across ALL THREATENED OBLASTS, with ABSOLUTE PRIORITY given to KHARKIV OBLAST due to the COMBINED MISSILE AND GUIDED BOMB THREAT.
   • Deploy additional air defense assets to CHERNIHIV, POLTAVA, AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS in response to the NEW ALERTS AND REPORTED TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY.
   • Issue continuous warnings to civilians, urging them to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

2. INVESTIGATE AND COUNTER REPORTED UKRAINIAN F-16 OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to VERIFY the reported Ukrainian F-16 operations near Kursk and other regions.
   • Assess the threat posed by the combined use of F-16s and MiG-29s with guided bombs.
   • Develop and implement countermeasures, including ADJUSTING AIR DEFENSE STRATEGIES and TARGETING UKRAINIAN AIRFIELDS if possible.
   • Verify the claimed shooting down of the MiG-29.

3. CONTINUE INVESTIGATING CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES INSIDE RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): This remains UNCHANGED and a TOP PRIORITY.

4. ADDRESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): Provide medical assistance to the injured and assess the damage to infrastructure.

5. CLARIFY STATUS OF UKRAINIAN MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL NEGOTIATIONS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Seek clarification from US sources on the status of negotiations and any alternative proposals.
   • Assess the implications of Ukraine's refusal of the $500 billion proposal.

6. VERIFY CLAIMED TRUMP-PUTIN PHONE CALL LEAK (LOW PRIORITY, INVESTIGATION): Attempt to verify the authenticity of the alleged leak through reliable sources.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The WIDESPREAD AND ESCALATING AIR THREAT, combined with the REPORTED DEPLOYMENT OF UKRAINIAN F-16S, represents a MAJOR SHIFT in the conflict's dynamics. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE AIR THREAT, VERIFY CLAIMS, ADDRESS CASUALTIES, and ADAPT TO THE EVOLVING BATTLEFIELD CONDITIONS. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, EFFECTIVE AIR DEFENSE, AND COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION are ESSENTIAL. The UNCERTAIN STATUS OF THE MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL and the POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES add to the COMPLEXITY AND URGENCY of the situation.