Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 07:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (07:00 UTC - 07:30 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN CLAIM OF CAPTURE OF POGREBKI, KURSK OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Дневник Десантника (07:29 UTC) claims Russian forces (34th Motorized Rifle Brigade) have "liberated" the village of Pogrebki, Kursk Oblast, Russia. Detailed description of the operation.
   • Assessment: This report REINFORCES the previous claim of Russian forces capturing MARYEVKA, ALSO IN KURSK OBLAST, RUSSIA. The detailed description of the operation, including specific units and tactics, adds CREDIBILITY. This STRONGLY SUGGESTS a PRIOR UKRAINIAN INCURSION into RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The claim of capturing a school and finding evidence of war crimes is SENSITIVE and requires CAREFUL INVESTIGATION. The claim of total control of the village REQUIRES INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

2. UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE ALERTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:23 UTC) reports enemy tactical aviation activity in the northeast and threat of aviation weapons for frontline areas.
   • Assessment: CONFIRMS ongoing threat of air attacks, particularly in the NORTHEAST.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR BOGATYR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):

   • Военкор Котенок (07:02 UTC) claims Russian forces ("Vostok" group) advanced north of the Volchya River towards Alekseevka, captured an enemy stronghold northwest of Andreevka, and are fighting in the southern part of Konstantinopol. Includes a map.
   • Assessment: The map VISUALLY SUPPORTS the claims of advances. This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION from independent sources. If confirmed, these advances would represent SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS in the front lines.

4. UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF DRONE ATTACK AND FIRE IN TULA OBLAST, RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN & RUSSIAN SOURCES):

• Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (07:25 UTC) reports a drone attack and fire at an oil depot in Brusyansky, Tula Oblast, Russia. Includes a video.
• Assessment: The video SHOWS A LARGE FIRE AT NIGHT, consistent with an OIL DEPOT STRIKE. REQUIRES CONFIRMATION of the specific target and location within Russia. This suggests a UKRAINIAN RETALIATORY STRIKE following the massive Russian drone attack. The fact that it is outside of Ukraine is significant.

5. REPORTED UK MISSILE STRIKE THREAT IN ODESA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:29 UTC) reports a missile threat in Odesa Oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a CRITICAL WARNING, indicating an IMMINENT THREAT.

6. UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN SOLDIERS IN A BOAT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Сили оборони Півдня України (07:19 UTC) claims a Ukrainian drone strike on a boat carrying three Russian soldiers. Includes video.
   • Assessment: The video APPEARS TO SHOW a drone strike on a SMALL BOAT, resulting in an EXPLOSION AND FIRE. REQUIRES VERIFICATION of the specific location and identities of those targeted.

7. UKRAINIAN REPORT OF DESTROYED RUSSIAN POSITIONS AND EQUIPMENT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Сили оборони Півдня України (06:55 UTC) reports detailed Russian losses and destroyed military objects.
   • Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS the INTENSE FIGHTING in the south and the Ukrainian effort to inflict damage on Russian forces.

8. APPEAL FOR DONATIONS FOR RUSSIAN FORCES(LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • The posts by Colonelcassad, Dnevnik Desantnika and Dva Mayora contain an appeal for donations to support the Russian forces.
   • Assessment: This is a request to help provide the resources required for continued operations.

Updated Situation Summary

• CLAIMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF POGREBKI INSIDE RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This report, combined with the earlier claim of capturing Maryevka, STRONGLY SUGGESTS a PRIOR UKRAINIAN INCURSION into RUSSIAN TERRITORY. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT requiring IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED NEAR BOGATYR (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS require IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION.
• UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK AND FIRE REPORTED IN TULA OBLAST, RUSSIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): This suggests a UKRAINIAN RETALIATORY STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA.
• IMMINENT MISSILE THREAT REPORTED IN ODESA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): This requires IMMEDIATE ACTION by air defense forces.
• CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN SOLDIERS IN BOAT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING AND RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian advances.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
• Reports of casualties confirm the impact of the attack.

Updated Recommendations

1. URGENTLY VERIFY CLAIMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF POGREBKI AND MARYEVKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM the reported Russian capture of Pogrebki INSIDE RUSSIAN TERRITORY.
   • Investigate the possibility of a PRIOR UKRAINIAN INCURSION into Russia.
   • Assess the implications of this development for border security and potential escalation.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR BOGATYR AND IN TOPOLI AND NOVOPAVLOVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue deploying all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE reported Russian advances.
   • Assess the impact of these potential advances on Ukrainian defensive positions.

3. CONFIRM AND ASSESS OIL DEPOT STRIKE IN TULA OBLAST, RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use satellite imagery and other intelligence to CONFIRM the strike on the oil depot in Brusyansky, Tula Oblast.
   • Assess the extent of damage and its impact on Russian fuel supplies and logistical capabilities.

4. RESPOND TO MISSILE THREAT IN ODESA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Activate all air defense systems in Odesa Oblast.
   • Issue public warnings to seek shelter.

5. VERIFY CLAIMED UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKE ON RUSSIAN BOAT (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use available intelligence to CONFIRM the location and outcome of the reported drone strike.
   • Identify the individuals involved, if possible.

6. CONTINUE MONITORING FOR AIR ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain high alert status for air defenses across Ukraine, especially in the NORTHEAST.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.

7. ADDRESS DAMAGE FROM DRONE DEBRIS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue assessing damage from drone debris in affected regions.
   • Provide assistance to affected civilians.

8. MONITOR SOCIAL TENSIONS RELATED TO MOBILIZATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on incidents of resistance to mobilization.
   • Assess the potential for further unrest and its impact on military recruitment efforts.

9. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue efforts to VERIFY Russian claims of destroying the "Bogdana" howitzer and "Stryker" vehicle.

10. VERIFY UKRAINIAN REPORTS OF DESTROYED RUSSIAN POSITIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Continue efforts to VERIFY Ukrainian reports of destroyed Russian positions.

11. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CLAIMED RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF POGREBKI AND MARYEVKA INSIDE RUSSIA is a POTENTIALLY HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT requiring IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. The REPORTED UKRAINIAN STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA could signal an ESCALATION. The IMMINENT MISSILE THREAT IN ODESA requires IMMEDIATE ACTION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND EFFECTIVE AIR DEFENSE are ESSENTIAL.