Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 05:00 UTC

Changes and New Information (04:30 UTC - 05:00 UTC)

1. KYIV AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (04:35 UTC) and РБК-Україна (04:36 UTC) report the lifting of the air raid alert in Kyiv.
   • Assessment: This indicates the IMMEDIATE ROCKET THREAT to Kyiv has PASSED. However, the UNDERLYING THREAT from future attacks REMAINS.

2. DAMAGE REPORTED IN KYIV FROM OVERNIGHT ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (04:40 UTC) provides initial reports and images of damage from the overnight attack in Kyiv:
     • Holosiivskyi district: Fire in a one-story private house, extinguished (100 sq m).
     • Darnytskyi district: Damage to a private house and cars, fire extinguished. Another location had a fire in a one-story house spreading to a neighboring building, extinguished (35 sq m).
     • Pecherskyi district: Damage to glazing of a non-residential building, no fire.
     • Information on casualties is being clarified.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS that the overnight attack (likely drones and/or missiles) CAUSED DAMAGE in Kyiv, primarily to RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS. The lack of immediate reports of casualties is POSITIVE, but FURTHER ASSESSMENT IS NEEDED.

3. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF LIBERATING MARYEVKA, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (04:59 UTC) states that the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade has completed cleaning Maryevka, destroying a powerful Ukrainian fortified area.
   • Assessment: URGENT VERIFICATION is required.

4. UK AND FRANCE CONSIDERING SENDING PEACEKEEPERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (04:45 UTC) reports on a Wall Street Journal article, stating that the UK and France are discussing sending 30,000 peacekeepers to Ukraine.
   • Assessment: REQUIRES VERIFICATION.

5. "YELLOW LEVEL" ALERT LIFTED (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Igor Artamonov (04:48 UTC) announced the lifting of the "yellow level" alert.
   • Assessment: This is LIKELY RELATED TO AIR DEFENSE ALERTS in a Russian region, NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING UKRAINE.

6. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (04:32) reports a "premiere" of a film about military doctors.
   • Дневник Десантника (04:33) reports on events and successes in various locations.
   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (04:50) reports on a new music video, dedicated to the war.
   • НгП раZVедка (04:41) shares propaganda images.
   • Assessment: STANDARD INFORMATION WARFARE EFFORTS, LOW MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE.

7. MEASLES OUTBREAK (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ASTRA (04:50) reports on the measles situation.
   • Assessment: NOT MILITARY.

Updated Situation Summary

• KYIV AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED, DAMAGE CONFIRMED (HIGH PRIORITY): The IMMEDIATE rocket threat has PASSED, but DAMAGE TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS is CONFIRMED. The UNDERLYING THREAT remains.
• RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF LIBERATING MARYEVKA, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY): URGENT VERIFICATION is required.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). This includes the CONTINUED DRONE THREAT, RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DOWNED DRONES, CONFIRMED NAVAL PRESENCE, and the NARRATIVE OF WEAKENING UKRAINIAN POSITION.

Updated Recommendations

1. ASSESS DAMAGE AND CASUALTIES IN KYIV (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Continue to gather information on the EXTENT OF DAMAGE and POTENTIAL CASUALTIES in Kyiv.
   • Provide support to emergency services and ENSURE ADEQUATE RESOURCES are available.

2. MAINTAIN HIGH AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • The UNDERLYING THREAT of air attacks REMAINS HIGH.
   • Maintain readiness across all regions, PARTICULARLY WESTERN UKRAINE due to earlier drone movements.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIM OF LIBERATING MARYEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence sources to determine whether it is true.

4. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains CRITICAL AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. While the IMMEDIATE threat to Kyiv has subsided, the CONFIRMED DAMAGE and the CONTINUED THREAT of future attacks require ONGOING VIGILANCE AND RESPONSE. RAPID DAMAGE ASSESSMENT, EFFECTIVE AIR DEFENSE, AND CONTINUOUS INTELLIGENCE GATHERING are ESSENTIAL.