Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 03:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (03:00 UTC - 03:30 UTC)

1. KYIV AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • КМВА (Київська міська військова адміністрація) (03:21 UTC) and РБК-Україна (03:21 UTC) report the air raid alert in Kyiv has been lifted.
   • Assessment: This indicates the IMMEDIATE DRONE THREAT TO KYIV has SUBSIDED. However, the broader drone attack REMAINS ONGOING in other regions (see below).

2. ODESA MISSILE THREAT LIFTED (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (03:28 UTC) reports the missile threat for Odesa Oblast has been lifted.
   • Assessment: This indicates the IMMEDIATE MISSILE THREAT TO ODESA OBLAST has SUBSIDED.

3. UPDATED DRONE MOVEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:05 UTC) provides detailed updates on drone movements:
     • Drones in northern and central Kyiv Oblast, course: west/southwest.
     • Drones in northwestern Kirovohrad Oblast, course: southwest.
     • Drones in northern Zhytomyr Oblast, course: west/southwest.
     • Drones in northern and western Khmelnytskyi Oblast, course: west/southwest.
     • Drones in northern Mykolaiv Oblast, course: southwest.
     • Drones in eastern Rivne Oblast, course: west.
   • РБК-Україна (03:00 UTC) confirmed that drones are on route to Kyiv and Rivne.
   • Assessment: This indicates the DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES, with MULTIPLE DRONES moving PRIMARILY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD across SEVERAL OBLASTS. The threat has SHIFTED from Kyiv and Odesa, but REMAINS SIGNIFICANT in the CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS. The concentration of drone activity in KHMELNYTSKYI OBLAST is NOTABLE.

4. GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS, DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (03:01 UTC) and (03:06 UTC) reports the use of guided bombs in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia.
   • РБК-Україна(03:06 UTC) reports the use of guided bombs in Zaporizhzhia.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦(03:04 UTC) announces an air raid alert.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY employing GUIDED AERIAL BOMBS in DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS. This poses a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to FRONT-LINE POSITIONS AND NEARBY CIVILIAN AREAS.

5. RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF INCREASED UKRAINIAN SHELLING (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (03:03 UTC) reports a claim by a Russian military expert that Ukrainian shelling of frontline areas in Luhansk People's Republic has increased due to US-Russia negotiations.
   • Assessment: This is UNVERIFIED and likely PROPAGANDA intended to PORTRAY UKRAINE AS AN AGGRESSOR and DISRUPT NEGOTIATIONS. It has NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT on the ACTUAL MILITARY SITUATION without further evidence.

6. OTHER REPORTS (LOW PRIORITY):

   • Colonelcassad (03:03 UTC) video about becoming an "information resource".
   • РБК-Україна (03:04) report on Netanyahu's decision to postpone the release of Palestinian prisoners.
   • Colonelcassad (03:15 UTC) video of a Russian convoy retreating from Kursk Oblast.
   • Colonelcassad (03:23 UTC) video of a Tupolev Tu-22M3.

Updated Situation Summary

• ONGOING DRONE ATTACK, SHIFTING WESTWARD (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The DRONE ATTACK CONTINUES, but the IMMEDIATE THREAT TO KYIV AND ODESA HAS SUBSIDED. Drones are now CONCENTRATED IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN UKRAINE, particularly KHMELNYTSKYI OBLAST.
• GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): RUSSIAN AIRCRAFT are ACTIVELY EMPLOYING GUIDED BOMBS, posing a SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
• RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA CLAIMS INCREASED UKRAINIAN SHELLING (LOW PRIORITY, UNVERIFIED): Likely an attempt to DISCREDIT UKRAINE and INFLUENCE NEGOTIATIONS.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE ALERT, FOCUS ON CENTRAL AND WESTERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain a high state of alert for air defense systems across CENTRAL AND WESTERN UKRAINE, particularly in KHMELNYTSKYI OBLAST.
   • Prioritize the interception of drones moving westward and southwestward.
   • Continue to provide real-time warnings to the public and ENSURE ACCESS TO SHELTERS.

2. RESPOND TO GUIDED BOMB ATTACKS IN DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Increase air defense presence in DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLASTS to COUNTER THE THREAT FROM GUIDED BOMBS.
   • Provide immediate support to FRONT-LINE UNITS facing air attacks.
   • Assess the impact of the attacks and ADJUST DEFENSIVE POSITIONS as needed.

3. DISREGARD UNVERIFIED RUSSIAN CLAIMS (LOW PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Do not react to unverified Russian claims about increased Ukrainian shelling.
   • Focus on verified intelligence and ACTUAL BATTLEFIELD DEVELOPMENTS.

4. CONTINUE ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation REMAINS HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The SHIFTING FOCUS OF THE DRONE ATTACK and the USE OF GUIDED BOMBS IN DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA are the MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. CONTINUOUS MONITORING, ADAPTIVE AIR DEFENSE STRATEGIES, AND RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES are ESSENTIAL.