Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 23, 2025, 01:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (01:00 UTC - 01:30 UTC)

1. DRONE MOVEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Nikolaevskiy Vanyok (01:02 UTC, 01:26 UTC) and Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:16 UTC, 01:21 UTC) provide further updates on drone movements:
     • Kyiv Oblast: Two drones from Vyshhorod turned towards Kyiv; one drone flying past Boyarka towards Kyiv; Four drones in the north, west course; Two drones near Fastiv, heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast.
     • Zhytomyr Oblast: Two drones.
     • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones near Chernihiv; two drones heading towards/through Shostka.
     • Sumy Oblast: Two drones heading through/towards Shostka. Drones in the northwest, southeast course.
     • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone in the south, west course.
     • Mykolaiv Oblast: Two drones near Kazanka, flying towards Kryvyi Rih district; one drone flying from Kirovohrad Oblast towards Pivdennoukrainsk.
     • Kirovohrad Oblast: One drone approaching Kropyvnytskyi.
     • Cherkasy Oblast: Six drones near Smila, southwest course; four drones flying from Poltava Oblast.
     • Poltava Oblast: One drone over Kremenchuk; four drones heading towards Cherkasy Oblast.
     • Rivne Oblast: Drone threat from the east (01:16 UTC); Two drones from Zhytomyr Oblast (01:26 UTC). Drones in the east, west/southwest course.
   • Assessment: The drone attack CONTINUES UNABATED. Reports show drones are now active in Rivne Oblast, showing that the GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE IS WIDENING. The THREAT TO KYIV REMAINS HIGH, with multiple drones converging on the city. Reports of drones in RIVNE, VINNYTSIA, AND CHERKASY OBLASTS indicate a BROADENING OF THE ATTACK. The continued activity in MYKOLAIV AND KIROVOHRAD OBLASTS indicates a PERSISTENT THREAT to SOUTHERN UKRAINE. The NUMBER OF DRONES is hard to estimate due to different reporting.

2. RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY AND GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:03 UTC) reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the eastern direction, with a threat of aviation weapons use for frontline areas.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (01:22 UTC) confirms launches of guided bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Sumy and Donetsk Oblasts.
   • Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION of the threat. Guided bombs are MORE DESTRUCTIVE than unguided bombs and can be launched from GREATER DISTANCES, increasing the RISK TO UKRAINIAN FORCES AND CIVILIAN AREAS. The activity in the EASTERN DIRECTION and launches in SUMY AND DONETSK OBLASTS indicate a BROAD FRONT OF ATTACK.

3. INTERNAL RUSSIAN CORRUPTION CASE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • TASS (01:02 UTC) reports that a senior anti-corruption officer is accused of mediating a large bribe.
   • Assessment: While this is an internal Russian matter, it highlights potential CORRUPTION WITHIN THE RUSSIAN SECURITY APPARATUS. This could POTENTIALLY AFFECT OPERATIONAL EFFECTIVENESS in the long term, but has NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT on the situation in Ukraine.

4. POLISH POLITICAL REPRESSION AND UKRAINIAN REFUGEES (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (01:03 UTC) presents a video discussing Polish political repression, historical revisionism, and tensions related to Ukrainian refugees.
   • Assessment: This is a PROPAGANDA PIECE aimed at highlighting tensions between Poland and Ukraine and portraying Poland negatively. While there may be SOME TRUTH to the claims of social tensions, the video's PRIMARY PURPOSE is to SOW DISCORD and WEAKEN WESTERN UNITY.

5. UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATIONS WITH TRUMP ALLIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (01:21 UTC), citing NV sources, reports that Keith Kellogg is returning to the US with Ukrainian proposals on natural resources. Zelensky is reportedly trying to reduce the US-proposed fund size from $500 billion to $100 billion, but is likely to sign the agreement.
   • Assessment: This CORROBORATES PREVIOUS REPORTS of a HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL being pushed by the US. The reported reduction in the fund size is a MINOR CONCESSION, but the overall situation remains HIGHLY CONCERNING for Ukraine. This suggests CONTINUED PRESSURE FROM THE US and a WEAKENING UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATING POSITION.

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE, ONGOING DRONE ATTACK, EXPANDING GEOGRAPHICALLY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone attack CONTINUES WITH HIGH INTENSITY, now including RIVNE OBLAST. KYIV REMAINS UNDER SIGNIFICANT THREAT. Drones are also active in VINNYTSIA, CHERKASY, MYKOLAIV, AND KIROVOHRAD OBLASTS.
• INCREASED THREAT OF RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES, GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed reports of Russian tactical aviation activity and guided bomb launches in SUMY AND DONETSK OBLASTS. This SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE THREAT to Ukrainian forces and civilians.
• UKRAINIAN ATTEMPTED STRIKES INSIDE RUSSIA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): Two drones were reportedly suppressed over Tula Oblast.
• RUSSIAN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW DRONE BOMB (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): Potentially a significant advancement in Russian drone warfare capabilities.
• CAPTURE OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS FROM 123RD BRIGADE (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): Likely propaganda, but highlights potential issues of morale and supply within some Ukrainian units.
• ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST: Air raid alert has been lifted.
• UKRAINIAN NEGOTIATIONS ON MINERAL RESOURCES: This continues being the top diplomatic threat, and seems to be unfavorable to Ukraine.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ALERT, PRIORITIZE KYIV AND EXPAND COVERAGE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Maintain and reinforce air defense systems across ALL THREATENED OBLASTS, with ABSOLUTE PRIORITY given to KYIV due to the CONTINUED CONVERGENCE OF DRONES.
   • Expand air defense coverage to RIVNE, VINNYTSIA, AND CHERKASY OBLASTS due to the NEW DRONE ACTIVITY.
   • Deploy air defense assets to INTERCEPT DRONES and PROTECT CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE.
   • Issue continuous warnings to civilians, urging them to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

2. ADDRESS THREAT OF GUIDED BOMBS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Increase air defense coverage in SUMY AND DONETSK OBLASTS to COUNTER GUIDED BOMB LAUNCHES.
   • Deploy short-range air defense systems (SHORADS) to PROTECT FORWARD POSITIONS from airstrikes.
   • Disperse forces where possible to REDUCE VULNERABILITY to airstrikes.

3. CONTINUE INVESTIGATING DRONES ENTERING BELARUS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): This remains a critical concern, especially with the expanding geographical scope of the drone attacks.

4. PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): The drone attack, combined with guided bomb launches, suggests a HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ESCALATION. MAINTAIN HIGH READINESS across all forces.

5. ADDRESS CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE IN KRYVYI RIH AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION): This remains crucial, despite the lifted alert in Zaporizhzhia. Continue assessing and addressing the consequences of previous attacks.

6. MONITOR RUSSIAN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW DRONE BOMB (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence on the reported new drone bomb.
   • Assess its potential impact on Ukrainian forces and defenses.
   • Develop countermeasures if necessary.

7. VERIFY WHITE HOUSE STATEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY):

   • Check if the statement has been made by the White House Press Secretary.

8. ASSESS CLAIMS OF CAPTURED UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Attempt to independently verify the claims made in the Colonelcassad video regarding the capture of Ukrainian soldiers from the 123rd Brigade.
   • Gather intelligence on the MORALE AND SUPPLY SITUATION within Ukrainian units, particularly those known for desertion.

9. ADDRESS UKRAINIAN-US NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Further investigate the details of the negotiations and search for alternative deals.
   • Attempt to contact US representatives.

10. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The MASSIVE, ONGOING DRONE ATTACK, NOW EXPANDING GEOGRAPHICALLY, poses an IMMEDIATE AND WIDESPREAD THREAT. The CONFIRMED USE OF GUIDED BOMBS further INCREASES THE DANGER. IMMEDIATE, COORDINATED, AND SUSTAINED ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE THREAT and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER ESCALATION. The COMPLEXITY AND BREADTH OF THE ATTACK require CONSTANT MONITORING AND RAPID RESPONSE. The UNFAVORABLE MINERAL RIGHTS DEAL remains a MAJOR STRATEGIC CONCERN.