Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 23:30 UTC

Changes and New Information (23:00 UTC - 23:30 UTC)

1. CASUALTY CONFIRMED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (23:09 UTC) and РБК-Україна (23:12 UTC) report a 53-year-old woman was injured in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia. Medical assistance is being provided.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS a CIVILIAN CASUALTY resulting from the attack, escalating the severity of the situation in Zaporizhzhia.

2. CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE REPORTED IN KRYVYI RIH (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Олександр Вілкул (23:12 UTC) reports one person killed and four injured (one in very serious condition) in a missile attack on Kryvyi Rih. Preliminary damage includes 12 multi-story buildings, a civilian infrastructure object, social and industrial buildings, and cars. Rescue and municipal services are on-site. A support center has been set up near a local trolleybus stop.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CASUALTIES AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE from a MISSILE ATTACK on KRYVYI RIH. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT, indicating a WIDENING OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS to target CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. The report of one person in VERY SERIOUS CONDITION is particularly concerning.

3. COMPREHENSIVE DRONE UPDATE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (23:24 UTC) provides a detailed update on drone locations:
     • 1 near Pervomaisk.
     • 1 west of Zaporizhzhia, heading north.
     • 1 heading towards Novyi Buh.
     • 2 in the Kryvyi Rih district.
     • 1 north of Dnipro.
     • 4 moving from Kharkiv Oblast to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
     • 4 east of Uman.
     • 6 in the Cherkasy region.
     • 5 near Kyiv: 2 near Boiarka, 1 from Obukhiv towards Kyiv, 2 near Brovary.
     • 4 in the north of Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
     • 2 in the Korosten area.
     • 3 in the Chernihiv region.
     • 10 heading towards/through Pryluky.
     • 2 moving from Chernihiv Oblast into Belarus.
     • 4 new drones west of Sumy, heading towards Poltava Oblast.
   • Assessment: This COMPREHENSIVE UPDATE confirms an EXTREMELY LARGE-SCALE DRONE ATTACK in progress, with DOZENS OF DRONES across MULTIPLE REGIONS OF UKRAINE. The report of TWO DRONES ENTERING BELARUS is UNUSUAL and REQUIRES FURTHER INVESTIGATION. The sheer number of drones reported OVERWHELMS PREVIOUS ASSESSMENTS and represents an UNPRECEDENTED LEVEL OF AGGRESSION.

4. POSSIBLE RECORD NUMBER OF DRONES LAUNCHED (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (23:25 UTC) reports that today may see a record number of drones launched against Ukraine, with monitors reporting over 200.
   • Assessment: This report REINFORCES THE EXTREME SCALE of the ongoing drone attack, suggesting it may be the LARGEST SUCH ATTACK to date. This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION, but if confirmed, would represent a MAJOR ESCALATION of the conflict.

Updated Situation Summary

• UNPRECEDENTED, MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): DOZENS OF DRONES are targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS across Ukraine, representing a POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING ATTACK in terms of scale. KYIV REMAINS A PRIMARY TARGET, but the BREADTH OF THE ATTACK is UNPRECEDENTED.
• CONFIRMED CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE IN KRYVYI RIH AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A MISSILE ATTACK on KRYVYI RIH has resulted in ONE DEATH AND FOUR INJURIES, with SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE to civilian infrastructure. A WOMAN WAS INJURED in the attack on ZAPORIZHZHIA.
• DRONES ENTERING BELARUS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): The report of two drones flying from Chernihiv Oblast into Belarus is highly unusual and requires immediate investigation.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK and the CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia are the IMMEDIATE AND OVERWHELMING PRIORITIES.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAXIMIZE AIR DEFENSE EFFORTS ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy ALL available air defense assets across ALL REGIONS experiencing drone activity, prioritizing KYIV, KRYVYI RIH, ZAPORIZHZHIA, CHERKASY, POLTAVA, CHERNIHIV, SUMY, AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS.
   • Issue continuous warnings to civilians in ALL THREATENED AREAS to SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
   • Coordinate air defense efforts across the country to MAXIMIZE INTERCEPTION RATES.
   • Request immediate assistance from international partners in the form of ADDITIONAL AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS AND MUNITIONS.

2. ADDRESS CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE IN KRYVYI RIH AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING ACTION):

   • Continue to provide medical assistance to the injured and support to affected civilians.
   • Assess the full extent of damage to infrastructure and property.
   • Document the incidents for potential war crimes investigations.

3. INVESTIGATE DRONES ENTERING BELARUS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to VERIFY the report of drones entering Belarus.
   • Determine the origin and purpose of these drones.
   • Assess the potential implications for Belarus's involvement in the conflict.
   • Communicate with Belarusian authorities (if possible) to clarify the situation.

4. PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL ESCALATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Anticipate the possibility that the massive drone attack is a PRECURSOR TO A LARGER-SCALE OFFENSIVE.
   • Reinforce defensive positions along all potential lines of attack.
   • Mobilize reserves and prepare for rapid deployment.

5. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation has DRAMATICALLY ESCALATED with the UNPRECEDENTED SCALE of the drone attack and the CONFIRMED CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to MITIGATE THE THREAT and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL FURTHER ESCALATION. The POTENTIAL FOR OVERWHELMING UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES is a MAJOR CONCERN.