Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 20:00 UTC
Changes and New Information (19:31 UTC - 20:00 UTC)
FURTHER DETAILS ON POTENTIAL US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (19:33 UTC) reiterates key points from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's article in the Financial Times regarding the proposed economic partnership. Key points include:
Zelensky proposed the deal to Trump in September.
Trump recognizes Ukraine's potential for prosperity.
Resources can drive growth if the government and people have sufficient capital.
The deal involves creating a development fund.
The US will have economic and management rights in future investments.
Proceeds from future flows will be reinvested in key sectors.
The US will NOT acquire ownership of physical assets in Ukraine.
The US will NOT burden Ukraine with new debt.
Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS and PROVIDES FURTHER CLARIFICATION on the proposed deal's terms. The emphasis on NO US OWNERSHIP OF PHYSICAL ASSETS and NO NEW DEBT appears to be a direct response to PUBLIC CONCERNS AND POTENTIAL CRITICISM. The reiteration of Zelensky's initiative and Trump's positive view suggests an attempt to FRAME THE DEAL FAVORABLY.
CONTINUED AND EXPANDED DRONE THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:33 UTC) provides updated information on drone movements:
Drones in the north and center of Sumy Oblast, course - south-west.
Drones in Chernihiv Oblast, course - west/south-west.
Drones in the north of Zaporizhzhia Oblast, course - north.
Drones in the south of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course - north.
Drones in the Black Sea, course - west (Odesa Oblast).
Drones in the north of Poltava Oblast, course - south-west.
Николаевский Ванёк (19:52 UTC) reports Odesa Oblast and the sea are currently clear, but five drones are circling at the intersection of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts, and approximately 30 drones are flying through Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts.
Assessment: The drone threat remains EXTREMELY HIGH AND WIDESPREAD. The MULTIPLE LOCATIONS AND DIRECTIONS of drone movements indicate a COORDINATED AND COMPLEX ATTACK. The LARGE NUMBER OF DRONES reported in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts (approximately 30) is PARTICULARLY CONCERNING. While Odesa Oblast is reportedly clear FOR NOW, the PERSISTENT THREAT in the Black Sea REQUIRES CONTINUED VIGILANCE.
ROCKET ALERT IN LIPETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Игорь Артамонов (19:34 UTC) announces a ROCKET DANGER in Lipetsk and Lipetsk Municipal District, urging civilians to take shelter. This was followed by an "all-clear" at 19:47 UTC, but the THREAT OF UAV ATTACKS remains.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating a POTENTIAL ESCALATION of the conflict INTO RUSSIAN TERRITORY. The ROCKET ALERT suggests a MORE SERIOUS THREAT than previous drone warnings. The subsequent ALL-CLEAR FOR ROCKETS but CONTINUED UAV THREAT indicates a COMPLEX AND EVOLVING SITUATION.
REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN COLUMN NEAR POHREBKY, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (19:34 UTC) claims the 34th Mountain Brigade destroyed a Ukrainian column attempting to attack near Pohrebky in Kursk Oblast, using drones. Provides video.
Assessment: The video's authenticity and context should be viewed critically. It REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of FIGHTING IN THE KURSK OBLAST BORDER AREA. The use of drones to target the column is CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUSLY REPORTED TACTICS.
REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN WAREHOUSES IN SLOVYANSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (19:39 UTC) claims Russian airstrikes using FAB-250 bombs with UMPK modules targeted Ukrainian warehouses in Slovyansk, destroying Western-supplied equipment, including drones, 155mm ammunition, communication systems, and armored vehicles. Provides coordinates (48.8336994, 37.5971055) and a detailed list of destroyed items, including an International MaxxPro armored vehicle, MAN HX60 trucks, and Polaris MRZR ATVs. Claims up to 10 Ukrainian personnel were killed. Provides image.
Assessment: This is a DETAILED AND SPECIFIC CLAIM that REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this would represent a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to Ukrainian LOGISTICAL CAPABILITIES in the region. The SPECIFICITY OF THE REPORT, including coordinates and a list of destroyed equipment, suggests a POTENTIAL PROPAGANDA EFFORT to HIGHLIGHT RUSSIAN MILITARY SUCCESSES. The IMAGE REQUIRES ANALYSIS to determine its authenticity and relationship to the claimed strike.
EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (19:42 UTC) reports explosions in Kherson amid an air raid alert. (19:58 UTC) reports explosions in Zaporizhzhia, with the regional military administration reporting air defense activity.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS ONGOING MILITARY ACTIVITY in these regions. The report of air defense activity in Zaporizhzhia suggests a RESPONSE TO AERIAL THREATS.
CLAIMED STRIKES IN ODESA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (19:35 UTC) reports strikes in the areas of Illich and Velyka Dolyna in Odesa Oblast, with power outages reported in Illich. (19:54 UTC) provides video of a claimed strike in Velyka Dolyna.
Два майора (19:56 UTC) also provides video, counting 11 "Geranium" drone strikes.
Assessment: These reports, particularly from Russian sources, suggest a SIGNIFICANT DRONE ATTACK on Odesa Oblast. The CLAIMED POWER OUTAGES require verification.
ZELENSKY STATEMENT ON SECURITY GUARANTEES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE)
РБК-Україна (19:40 UTC) reported, that the president made a statement.
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:46 UTC) reports on Musk's tweet.
Assessment: Confirmed by multiple sources.
IRRELEVANT UPDATES:
НгП раZVедка (19:33 UTC): Message to people on the frontline.
Воин DV (19:33 UTC): Video of preparation of homemade weapons.
MoD Russia (19:34 UTC): Image with news.
ТАСС (19:34 UTC): Report of a car accident.
Оперативний ЗСУ (19:39 UTC): Video of soldiers after battle.
* Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (19:42 UTC): Video of a tank.
* Два майора (19:50 UTC): Video, fundraising for the military.
РБК-Україна (19:54 UTC): Reports on the status of the Pope.
Два майора (19:59 UTC): Video of a strike.
Updated Situation Summary
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT CONTINUES (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MULTIPLE DRONE SWARMS targeting various regions, with a PARTICULARLY HIGH CONCENTRATION in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts. Odesa Oblast CURRENTLY CLEAR, but the threat REMAINS.
POTENTIAL ESCALATION IN RUSSIAN TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):ROCKET ALERT in Lipetsk, followed by a continued UAV THREAT, indicates a POTENTIAL SHIFT in the conflict's dynamics.
REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KURSK, SLOVYANSK, AND ODESA OBLASTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): Claims of SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure, REQUIRING VERIFICATION.
EXPLOSIONS REPORTED IN KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):ONGOING MILITARY ACTIVITY and POTENTIAL AIR DEFENSE ENGAGEMENTS.
FURTHER DETAILS ON PROPOSED US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Emphasis on NO US OWNERSHIP OF PHYSICAL ASSETS and NO NEW DEBT suggests an attempt to ADDRESS PUBLIC CONCERNS.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AND SUSTAINED AIR DEFENSE ALERT ACROSS UKRAINE, PRIORITIZING IDENTIFIED THREAT AREAS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND CONTINUOUS ACTION):
Prioritize air defense systems in CHERNIHIV, POLTAVA, SUMY, ZAPORIZHZHIA, DNIPROPETROVSK, and ALL FRONTLINE AREAS to counter the WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE DRONE THREAT.
Deploy all available assets, including short-range, long-range, and electronic warfare systems, to DETECT, TRACK, INTERCEPT, AND NEUTRALIZE incoming drones.
Issue continuous warnings to civilians in threatened areas to SEEK SHELTER.
Maintain close coordination between air defense units across the country to ensure MAXIMUM COVERAGE AND READINESS.
Specifically address the HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DRONES reported in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Sumy Oblasts.
Maintain vigilance in ODESA OBLAST despite the current "clear" status, due to the PERSISTENT THREAT in the Black Sea.
INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL ESCALATION IN LIPETSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather intelligence on the nature of the ROCKET AND UAV THREATS in Lipetsk.
Assess the potential implications for the EXPANSION OF THE CONFLICT into Russian territory.
Coordinate with allies to SHARE INFORMATION and DEVELOP A COHERENT RESPONSE.
VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Use all available intelligence sources to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed strikes in Kursk, Slovyansk, and Odesa Oblasts.
Assess the damage to Ukrainian forces and infrastructure if confirmed.
Prepare for potential counter-operations or ADJUSTMENTS TO DEFENSIVE POSITIONS as needed.
CONTINUE MONITORING AND ADDRESSING POTENTIAL US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Maintain communication with US counterparts to CLARIFY any remaining ambiguities in the proposed deal's terms.
Address public concerns and COUNTER MISINFORMATION regarding the deal.
Prepare for potential negotiations and SEEK A MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD DRONE THREAT across Ukraine demands CONSTANT VIGILANCE AND IMMEDIATE ACTION. The POTENTIAL ESCALATION in Lipetsk and the REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKES represent SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENTS that REQUIRE URGENT INVESTIGATION AND RESPONSE. RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES, EFFECTIVE DIPLOMACY, AND CONTINUOUS MONITORING OF ALL INTELLIGENCE SOURCES are ESSENTIAL.
