Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 19:00 UTC

Changes and New Information (18:30 UTC - 19:00 UTC)

1. INTENSIFIED AERIAL THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:38 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in eastern Kharkiv Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:48 UTC) reports enemy attack drones in the Black Sea, heading towards Odesa/Mykolaiv Oblast.
   • Николаевский Ванёк (18:50 UTC) reports three drones in the Black Sea near Chornomorsk, heading north. Later (18:59 UTC), the number increases to six drones, heading towards Pivdennyi.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:51 UTC) reports a threat of enemy attack drones for Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts.
   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:56 UTC) announces an air raid alert for Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:58 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (19:00 UTC) reports a drone heading towards Zaporizhzhia city.
   • Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION of Russian air activity, with MULTIPLE SIMULTANEOUS THREATS: guided aerial bombs in KHARKIV and DONETSK OBLASTS, and drones targeting ODESA, MYKOLAIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS. The INCREASED NUMBER OF DRONES (from 3 to 6) near Odesa is particularly concerning. IMMEDIATE AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION is CRITICAL.

2. REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Сливочный каприз (18:39 UTC) reports a Russian mechanized attack along the east bank of the Mokri Yaly River near Velyka Novosilka, with a claimed advance of over 2.5 km towards Dniproenerhiya. Provides coordinates.
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAIN and a POTENTIAL BREAKTHROUGH in the VELYKA NOVOSILKA AREA. This aligns with previous reports of intensified fighting in this region. IMMEDIATE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING is needed to confirm or refute this claim and assess the situation.

3. REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN ARMORED VEHICLES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, CONFLICTING INFORMATION):

• Сливочный каприз (18:39 UTC) claims destruction of 9-10 Ukrainian armored vehicles by the Ukrainian side.
  • Assessment: Needs verification.

4. REPORTED STRIKE IN POHREBKY, KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (18:39 UTC) reports a drone strike in Pohrebky, Kursk Oblast, by the 34th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade. Claims three Ukrainian soldiers were hiding in a building.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. It suggests CONTINUED FIGHTING in the KURSK OBLAST BORDER AREA and POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES. The report's claim of targeting Ukrainian soldiers hiding in a building requires careful consideration in light of the rules of engagement.

5. REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF LEOPARD TANKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Басурин о главном (18:32 UTC) claims the destruction of a Swedish Strv-122A (Leopard 2A5 modification) tank in the Sumy Oblast border area by a kamikaze drone, and additional Leopard tanks near the Kursk Oblast border. Claims over 40 of 55 delivered Leopard tanks have been destroyed.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The destruction of a Leopard 2A5, if confirmed, would be a SIGNIFICANT LOSS for Ukraine. The claim of over 40 destroyed Leopards, if true, would represent a MAJOR SETBACK for Ukraine's armored capabilities. INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION is ESSENTIAL.

6. REPORTED UKRAINIAN SNIPER ACTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (18:47 UTC) reports Ukrainian snipers from the "Omega" unit neutralizing Russian infantry crossing a river in Kherson Oblast. Video provided.
   • Assessment: Video indicates shooting, but is not clear.

7. NEW AIR RAID ALERT SYSTEM IN KHARKIV (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (18:54 UTC) reports a new, differentiated air raid alert system in Kharkiv, separating alerts for the city and the oblast.
   • Assessment: This is a POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT for CIVILIAN SAFETY, improving the PRECISION AND RESPONSIVENESS of air raid warnings.

8. POTENTIAL US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS AND DEAL UPDATES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Alex Parker Returns (18:34, 18:46 UTC), citing The New York Times, claims Ukraine is proposing to reduce the amount to be paid to a US fund from $500 billion to $100 billion in a potential deal.
   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (18:44 UTC), citing NV, reports that Kellogg is returning home with a Ukrainian proposal reducing the fund size from $500 billion to $100 billion, and that Ukrainian authorities have requested a meeting between Zelensky and Trump next week in Washington.
   • ТАСС (18:54, 18:56 UTC) reports Bessent stating that the US is not proposing Ukraine give up its minerals and go into debt, and that the conditions of the mineral agreement are designed to prevent corruption.
   • Два майора (18:59 UTC) reports a new version of a mineral deal between Ukraine and the USA.
   • Assessment: These reports suggest ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS regarding a potential deal involving Ukrainian mineral resources. The reported reduction in the proposed fund size indicates a SIGNIFICANT GAP between the US and Ukrainian positions. The conflicting statements from US and Ukrainian sources highlight the COMPLEXITY AND SENSITIVITY of these negotiations. FURTHER CLARIFICATION AND VERIFICATION are needed.

9. EU CONSIDERING SEIZURE OF RUSSIAN ASSETS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    *ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS* (18:51 UTC), citing Bloomberg, reports the EU is looking for ways to seize part of the €280 billion in frozen Russian assets to finance Ukraine.
   

   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, indicating a potential MAJOR SHIFT in EU policy. The seizure of Russian assets, if implemented, could provide SUBSTANTIAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT to Ukraine, but also carries LEGAL AND POLITICAL RISKS.

10. ORBAN'S STATEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (18:57 UTC) reports that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine will become a buffer zone between NATO and Russia and will not become a member of the Alliance. Orbán claims that Ukraine's joining the EU would be a disaster for the country.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES EXISTING CONCERNS about HUNGARY'S POSITION on Ukraine's future. Orbán's statement UNDERMINES UKRAINIAN ASPIRATIONS for NATO membership and suggests a PRO-RUSSIAN BIAS.

11. IRRELEVANT UPDATES

• ASTRA (18:30 UTC): Reports that 252 people died on the fields of a special military operation.
• Оперативний ЗСУ (18:45 UTC): Reports that there was a knife attack in France.
• Alex Parker Returns (18:55 UTC): Report contains advice to Zelensky.

Updated Situation Summary

• RAPIDLY ESCALATING AERIAL THREAT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): MULTIPLE SIMULTANEOUS THREATS across Ukraine: guided aerial bombs in KHARKIV and DONETSK OBLASTS, and a GROWING NUMBER OF DRONES targeting ODESA, MYKOLAIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claimed significant Russian gain and potential breakthrough.
• REPORTED FIGHTING AND CASUALTIES IN KURSK OBLAST BORDER AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claimed drone strike targeting Ukrainian soldiers.
• REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF LEOPARD TANKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of significant Ukrainian armored losses.
• ONGOING NEGOTIATIONS REGARDING POTENTIAL US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Significant gap between US and Ukrainian positions, conflicting statements.
• EU CONSIDERING SEIZURE OF RUSSIAN ASSETS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Potential major shift in EU policy with significant implications for Ukraine.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. IMMEDIATE AND MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE ACTIVATION ACROSS UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize air defense systems in KHARKIV, DONETSK, ODESA, MYKOLAIV, ZAPORIZHZHIA, and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS to counter the MULTIPLE SIMULTANEOUS THREATS.
   • Deploy all available assets, including short-range and long-range systems, to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT incoming drones and guided aerial bombs.
   • Issue immediate warnings to civilians in threatened areas to SEEK SHELTER.
   • Coordinate closely with air defense units across the country to ensure MAXIMUM COVERAGE AND READINESS.
   • Specifically address the GROWING DRONE THREAT near Odesa.

2. URGENTLY VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR VELYKA NOVOSILKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy reconnaissance assets (drones, ground patrols, etc.) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed Russian advance and assess the situation on the ground.
   • Gather intelligence on Russian troop movements, equipment deployments, and potential objectives.
   • Prepare for potential counter-attacks to REGAIN LOST TERRITORY and PREVENT FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES.

3. INVESTIGATE REPORTED FIGHTING AND CASUALTIES IN KURSK OBLAST BORDER AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Verify the reported drone strike and any potential Ukrainian casualties.
   • Assess the situation on the ground and GATHER INTELLIGENCE on any cross-border activity.
   • Ensure all actions comply with the rules of engagement.

4. VERIFY REPORTED DESTRUCTION OF LEOPARD TANKS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Use all available intelligence sources to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of Leopard tank losses.
   • Assess the impact on Ukraine's armored capabilities if the reports are confirmed.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING AND ADDRESSING POTENTIAL US-UKRAINE MINERAL DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain communication with US counterparts to CLARIFY the terms of the proposed deal and SEEK A MUTUALLY ACCEPTABLE AGREEMENT.
   • Prepare for potential negotiations with Trump, if a meeting is confirmed.
   • Address public concerns and COUNTER MISINFORMATION regarding the deal.

6. ENGAGE WITH EU ON POTENTIAL SEIZURE OF RUSSIAN ASSETS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain close communication with EU officials to MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS and EXPLORE POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES for Ukraine to benefit from seized assets.
   • Assess the legal and political implications of such actions.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The ESCALATING AERIAL THREAT across Ukraine demands IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION. The reported Russian advance near Velyka Novosilka, if confirmed, would represent a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT requiring URGENT ATTENTION. CONSTANT VIGILANCE, RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES, AND EFFECTIVE DIPLOMACY are ESSENTIAL.