Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 16:27 UTC

Changes and New Information (15:58 UTC - 16:27 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN SNIPER TEAM ACTIVITY (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (15:58 UTC) shared a video of a sniper team from the 3rd Special Forces Brigade, thanking a company for providing their ghillie suits.
   • Assessment: This confirms the PRESENCE AND ACTIVITY OF RUSSIAN SPECIAL FORCES SNIPER TEAMS. The mention of a specific supplier ("S123 RF") is NOTEWORTHY for intelligence gathering regarding Russian military supply chains.

2. SHIFTING MORALE AMONG RUSSIAN SOLDIERS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (15:58 UTC) claims a shift in Russian soldier morale, with soldiers reportedly expressing a desire to go home rather than continue the offensive towards Kyiv and Odesa. Video message.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES CAREFUL CONSIDERATION AND VERIFICATION. While there may be isolated cases of low morale, this report could be part of a UKRAINIAN INFORMATION OPERATION to DEMORALIZE RUSSIAN FORCES and BOOST UKRAINIAN MORALE. It DOES NOT necessarily reflect a widespread shift in Russian military strategy.

3. PREPARATION FOR PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (15:59 UTC) reports that Russia and the US have begun preparations for a meeting between Putin and Trump.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS that DIRECT HIGH-LEVEL TALKS between Russia and the US are being planned. The implications of this meeting for Ukraine are EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT and POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE, given Trump's previous statements and reported demands.

4. RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN "UNDERGROUND CITY" (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (16:02 UTC) reports the discovery and targeting of a Ukrainian "underground city" in the Kursk direction, near Melovoy, using a FAB-3000 bomb. Video message.
   • Assessment: The video CONFIRMS A LARGE EXPLOSION. The claim of an "underground city" REQUIRES VERIFICATION. This COULD refer to a FORTIFIED UNDERGROUND BUNKER COMPLEX or TUNNEL NETWORK. The use of a FAB-3000, a very large bomb, suggests a HIGH-VALUE TARGET.

5. REPORTED DRUG USE AMONG UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (16:03 UTC) published an article detailing alleged widespread use of psychostimulants by Ukrainian soldiers, citing examples from NATO forces and claiming uncontrolled use by Ukrainian troops.
   • Assessment: This is likely part of a RUSSIAN INFORMATION OPERATION to DISCREDIT UKRAINIAN FORCES. While drug use in conflict zones is a possibility, the claims of widespread, uncontrolled use REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

6. RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY IN AVDIIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (16:04 UTC) posted a video showing soldiers and damage.
   • Два майора (16:24 UTC) reported on the arrival of the "Two Majors" charity foundation in Avdiivka, describing the city as heavily fortified and mined. Video message.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS RUSSIAN CONTROL OF AVDIIVKA and highlights the EXTENSIVE DAMAGE to the city. The presence of a charity foundation suggests efforts to CONSOLIDATE CONTROL and PROVIDE HUMANITARIAN AID, potentially as part of a PUBLIC RELATIONS CAMPAIGN. The mention of mines HIGHLIGHTS THE ONGOING DANGER in the area.

7. ZELENSKY'S RELUCTANCE TO ACCEPT US DEAL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (16:06 UTC) claims Zelensky is trying to avoid the deal with the US regarding Ukrainian resources.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INCREASING PRESSURE ON UKRAINE from the US regarding access to Ukrainian resources. Zelensky's reluctance indicates the UNFAVORABLE TERMS of the deal for Ukraine.

8. UKRAINIAN STRIKE ON RUSSIAN OIL PUMPING STATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (16:08 UTC), Alex Parker Returns (16:09), Оперативний ЗСУ (16:10) and РБК-Україна (16:23) confirm a Ukrainian strike on the "Novovelichkovska" oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, on February 20th. Russian air defenses, including Ka-52 helicopters, were reportedly used.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A UKRAINIAN STRIKE on RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE INSIDE RUSSIA. This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, demonstrating Ukraine's capability to TARGET STRATEGIC ASSETS within Russia and potentially DISRUPT RUSSIAN OIL SUPPLIES. The use of Ka-52 helicopters indicates a RUSSIAN MILITARY RESPONSE to the attack.

9. UPDATED TERMS OF US-UKRAINE DEAL (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Alex Parker Returns (16:09) and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (16:12), citing The New York Times, report that the terms of the US-Ukraine deal have been SIGNIFICANTLY HARDENED. Ukraine would reportedly have to give up half of its revenues from natural resources and infrastructure, with funds going to a US-controlled fund until it reaches $500 billion.
   • Assessment: This represents a MAJOR ESCALATION OF US PRESSURE ON UKRAINE. The terms are EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE to Ukraine, effectively DEMANDING REPARATIONS for previous aid and GRANTING THE US CONTROL OVER UKRAINIAN RESOURCES. This SERIOUSLY UNDERMINES UKRAINIAN SOVEREIGNTY.

10. RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ANDREEVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Colonelcassad (16:24), citing Rybar, reports Russian advances in Andreevka, claiming near-complete control of the western part of the village.
    • Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this represents a RUSSIAN GAIN and a FURTHER DETERIORATION of the Ukrainian defensive position in this area.

11. NEW RUSSIAN SCAM TARGETING VETERANS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (16:25 UTC) reports a new scam targeting veterans and soldiers with promises of payments.
    • Assessment: This is NOTEWORTHY but NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO MILITARY OPERATIONS. It highlights the POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOITATION of vulnerable populations during the conflict.

12. RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN DRONE CONTROL POINT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Воин DV (16:27) Reported that drone operators and artillery strike destroyed a drone control point and ammunition depot. Video message.
    • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of INTENSE FIGHTING in the area.

13. US DEMANDS UKRAINE WITHDRAW UN RESOLUTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN/UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

    • ASTRA (16:27), citing The Washington Post, reports that the Trump administration is demanding Ukraine withdraw its UN resolution condemning Russia, replacing it with a "softer" US statement. Ukraine has reportedly refused.
    • Assessment: This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT and a SIGNIFICANT BLOW TO UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS. It indicates a CLEAR SHIFT IN US POLICY towards a PRO-RUSSIAN STANCE and UNDERMINES INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.

14. RUSSIAN MILITARY ACTIVITY IN KHARKIV OBLAST (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Дневник Десантника (16:18) reported multiple losses of units.
• Assessment: This proves the continued and intense fighting in the Kharkov Oblast area.

15. IRRELEVANT UPDATES:

    • РБК-Україна (16:14): Report about Scholz expecting to stay in office after elections.
    • STERNENKO (16:24): Confirmation of Polish Starlink to Ukraine.
    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (16:14): Video report of damage to Russian supply area.

Updated Situation Summary

• UKRAINIAN STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukraine struck the "Novovelichkovska" oil pumping station in Krasnodar Krai, demonstrating a capability to target strategic assets within Russia.
• US PRESSURE ON UKRAINE INTENSIFIES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): The US is reportedly demanding Ukraine accept an extremely unfavorable deal regarding its resources, effectively demanding reparations and control. The US is also demanding Ukraine withdraw its UN resolution condemning Russia.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces are reportedly making gains in Andreevka and the Kursk direction.
• PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING PLANNED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Preparations for a meeting between Putin and Trump are underway, raising concerns about potential negative consequences for Ukraine.
• AVDIIVKA UNDER RUSSIAN CONTROL (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces are consolidating control of Avdiivka, with extensive damage reported.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING IN MULTIPLE AREAS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Fighting continues in several areas, including Kharkiv Oblast and near the river.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS US PRESSURE AND POTENTIAL POLICY SHIFT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE DIPLOMATIC ACTION):

   • Urgently engage with all available allies (EU, UK, other NATO members) to COUNTER US PRESSURE and MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for Ukraine.
   • Explore alternative sources of financial and military aid to REDUCE RELIANCE ON THE US.
   • Prepare a public relations campaign to HIGHLIGHT THE UNFAIRNESS OF US DEMANDS and MAINTAIN PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE.
   • Refuse to withdraw the UN resolution condemning Russia.

2. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Prioritize intelligence gathering to CONFIRM OR REFUTE reported Russian advances in Andreevka and the Kursk direction.
   • Assess the strength of Ukrainian defenses in these areas and PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL COUNTEROFFENSIVES.

3. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS AND TARGET RUSSIAN LOGISTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continue to prioritize air defense against drone attacks.
   • Focus on targeting Russian logistical infrastructure, including supply lines and fuel depots.
   • Assess the impact of the strike on the "Novovelichkovska" oil pumping station and PLAN FURTHER OPERATIONS to DISRUPT RUSSIAN ENERGY SUPPLIES.

4. MONITOR DEVELOPMENTS REGARDING PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on the AGENDA AND POTENTIAL OUTCOMES of the planned Putin-Trump meeting.
   • Prepare for potential negative consequences for Ukraine and DEVELOP STRATEGIES TO MITIGATE THEM.

5. ADDRESS THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN AVDIIVKA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Assess the humanitarian needs of the remaining population in Avdiivka.
   • Coordinate with international organizations to PROVIDE AID AND SUPPORT.
   • Begin planning for demining operations to MAKE THE AREA SAFE.

6. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND RAPIDLY EVOLVING. The INCREASING US PRESSURE ON UKRAINE, combined with REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and the PLANNED PUTIN-TRUMP MEETING, creates a HIGHLY DANGEROUS SITUATION for Ukraine. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required on all fronts, particularly in DIPLOMACY and INTELLIGENCE GATHERING. MAINTAINING INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT and COUNTERING US PRESSURE are PARAMOUNT.