Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 14:57 UTC

Changes and New Information (14:28 UTC - 14:57 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON DRONE WAREHOUSE, DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (14:29 UTC) claims Russian forces struck a Ukrainian drone and ammunition storage warehouse near Fedorivske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The report alleges secondary detonations, destruction of storage facilities and equipment, damage to drone control stations, and destruction of trucks used for drone transport.
   • Assessment: This report, IF TRUE, represents a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to Ukrainian drone capabilities in the region. The claimed destruction of storage, control stations, and transport vehicles would SEVERELY HINDER Ukrainian drone operations. The location, FEDORIVSKE, needs to be PRECISELY LOCATED to assess its strategic importance and proximity to current front lines. This report REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.

2. FOOT CRUSHER BOMB (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ОТУ "Харків" (14:29) posted a photo of the weapon.
   • Assessment: Indicates a new or reinforced use of a weapon, likely improvised.

3. PLANNED TERRORIST ATTACK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (14:29) reports that suspects involved in a terrorist attack were planning another attack.
   • Assessment: Indicates potential terrorist threats.

4. DESTROYED UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • WarGonzo (14:30 UTC) shows video of destroyed Ukrainian equipment, including a tank named "Bird" and an unused fire extinguisher.
   • Assessment: This serves primarily as RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA, highlighting claimed successes. The unused fire extinguisher is presented as evidence of Ukrainian incompetence. The video does not contain any evidence of strategic importance.

5. ROAD COLLAPSE IN MAKEYEVKA (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Mash на Донбассе (14:32 UTC) reports a road collapse in Chervonohvardiyskyi district, Makeyevka, due to icy conditions caused by water leaks. The report claims 15 vehicles, including an ambulance, were stuck. Local authorities reportedly promised to replace the damaged pipe by March 7th.
   • Assessment: This indicates INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS in Russian-occupied territory. While LOW PRIORITY for overall military operations, it highlights POTENTIAL LOGISTICAL DIFFICULTIES and CIVILIAN HARDSHIP, which can IMPACT MORALE AND SUPPORT for occupying forces.

6. AIR RAID ALERT LIFTED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): * 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (14:33) confirms the alert has ended. * Assessment: Confirms previous alerts, but also confirms that the alert has been deactivated.

7. ANIMATED MAP OF STRIKES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (14:35 UTC) shows an animated map of strikes on Ukrainian territory on February 21-22, 2025.
   • Assessment: This provides a RUSSIAN PERSPECTIVE on the SCOPE AND TARGETING of recent strikes. The map needs to be CAREFULLY ANALYZED to identify PATTERNS AND POTENTIAL TARGETS. The types of weapons used (OTKR, RC30, Geran) and areas subject to jamming ("Gerber jamming") should be noted. This information can be used to ANTICIPATE FUTURE STRIKES and assess the effectiveness of Russian electronic warfare.

8. AIR RAID ALERTS LIFTED (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (14:35, 14:36 UTC) reports the lifting of threats.
   • Assessment: These reports CONFIRM the end of the immediate air raid threat. However, the FREQUENCY AND DURATION of these alerts should be tracked to assess RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY PATTERNS.

9. POLAND PROVIDES STARLINK (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (14:37 UTC) reports that Poland has purchased and continues to pay for Starlink satellite internet service for Ukraine.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED POLISH SUPPORT for Ukraine and highlights the CRITICAL IMPORTANCE of SECURE COMMUNICATIONS. This is particularly relevant given the earlier reports of Russian strikes on drone control stations. Starlink provides a RESILIENT COMMUNICATION BACKBONE less vulnerable to physical attacks.

10. IRKUTSK PROTESTS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ASTRA (14:39 UTC) shows video of residents of Irkutsk protesting high electricity tariffs.
    • Assessment: This indicates DOMESTIC UNREST within Russia, unrelated to the direct military situation in Ukraine.

11. UKRAINE SUBMITS CHANGES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • *ТАСС* (14:41) reports that Ukraine has submitted a proposal with changes to the agreement on mineral resources.
      

    • Assessment: Indicates a CHANGE TO THE NEGOTIATIONS between the country and the United States.

12. BUTUSOV DISCUSSES TRUMP (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (14:43) reports that he has published a video, in which he discusses the influence of the US president on the situation.
    • Assessment: Indicates ongoing talks on the influence of the US president on the war.

13. REPORTED FIGHTING IN SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (14:44 UTC) shows video of fighting in Sumy Oblast, claiming Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions after liberating Sverdlykove in Kursk Oblast.
    • Assessment: This POTENTIALLY INDICATES A NEW FRONT OR ESCALATION in the SUMY REGION. The claimed liberation of Sverdlykove needs to be VERIFIED. This report requires IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION AND MONITORING.

14. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • STERNENKO (14:45 UTC) shows video of a Ukrainian drone attack on a Russian van ("Bukhanka").
    • Assessment: This demonstrates CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE WARFARE CAPABILITY and a focus on TARGETING RUSSIAN LOGISTICS. This REINFORCES the importance of COUNTER-DRONE MEASURES.

15. US WANTS MORE FROM UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (14:44) reports that the United States wants more benefits from the agreement than Ukraine paid for its defense.
  • Assessment: Indicates a POSSIBLE OBSTRUCTION to the negotiations.

16. RUSSIAN FORCES IN KURSK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• Colonelcassad (14:45) showed videos of Russian forces in Kursk, claiming they are a part of the Air Force. * Assessment: This REINFORCES the RUSSIAN PRESENCE in the KURSK REGION and suggests GROUND OPERATIONS by elements of the AIR FORCE.

17. US PRESSURES UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN/RUSSIAN SOURCES):

    • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (14:45 UTC) and РБК-Україна (14:50 UTC) report that the US pressured Ukraine to withdraw its UN resolution condemning Russia, wanting a "softer" statement. Ukraine reportedly refused.
    • Assessment: This indicates DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS between the US and Ukraine. The US may be seeking to MANAGE THE INTERNATIONAL NARRATIVE or AVOID ESCALATION, while Ukraine wants STRONG CONDEMNATION of Russia. This has NO DIRECT IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT but can AFFECT LONG-TERM SUPPORT AND ALLIANCES.

18. PUTIN HOLDS SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING (LOW PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

    • ТАСС (14:52, 14:53, 14:54, 14:56 UTC) reports that Putin held a Security Council meeting via video link to discuss relations with post-Soviet neighbors and security matters. Lavrov (Foreign Minister) and Bortnikov (FSB Director) were present.
    • Assessment: This indicates HIGH-LEVEL RUSSIAN FOCUS on REGIONAL SECURITY AND DIPLOMACY. The meeting likely addressed the WAR IN UKRAINE and its IMPACT ON RUSSIA'S RELATIONS with neighboring countries. This has NO DIRECT IMMEDIATE MILITARY IMPACT but shows RUSSIAN STRATEGIC PRIORITIES.

19. REPORTED CABLE DAMAGE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (14:53) reports on a possible rupture of an underwater cable in the Baltic Sea.
• Assessment: Indicates a POSSIBLE DISRUPTION TO COMMUNICATIONS.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL NEW FRONT/ESCALATION IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of fighting in Sumy Oblast REQUIRE IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION. This could be a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT.
• RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON DRONE WAREHOUSE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): The claimed strike in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast NEEDS URGENT VERIFICATION. This could SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT Ukrainian drone capabilities.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): While air raid alerts have been lifted, the PATTERN OF AIR ACTIVITY and REPORTS OF STRIKES indicate a PERSISTENT THREAT.
• DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS BETWEEN US AND UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): The reported US pressure regarding the UN resolution HIGHLIGHTS POTENTIAL FRICTION in the alliance.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. INVESTIGATE REPORTED FIGHTING IN SUMY OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available intelligence assets (drones, satellite imagery, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported fighting in Sumy Oblast.
   • Determine the scale and intensity of the reported clashes.
   • Assess the potential for a new front opening or a MAJOR RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE in the region.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in the SUMY REGION as a PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE.

2. VERIFY REPORTED AIRSTRIKE ON DRONE WAREHOUSE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed Russian strike on a drone warehouse near Fedorivske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
   • Determine the precise location of the alleged target.
   • Assess the extent of damage and the IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES.
   • Prepare contingency plans to MITIGATE the potential loss of drone assets, including RELOCATING REMAINING ASSETS and SEEKING REPLACEMENTS from allies.

3. MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to monitor Russian air activity closely.
   • Maintain air defense readiness across all threatened regions.
   • Issue timely warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER.

4. ADDRESS DIPLOMATIC TENSIONS WITH THE US (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Engage in diplomatic discussions with US counterparts to CLARIFY THE US POSITION on the UN resolution.
   • Reiterate Ukraine's position on the need for STRONG CONDEMNATION of Russian aggression.
   • Seek to maintain a unified front with allies while ASSERTING UKRAINE'S SOVEREIGNTY.

5. MONITOR RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL MEETING (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on the outcomes of the Russian Security Council meeting.
   • Assess any decisions or statements that could IMPACT the military situation in Ukraine.

6. ADDRESS NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE UNITED STATES (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather all available intelligence on the new developments.
   • Prepare to provide information at ALL RELEVANT FORUMS.

7. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND FLUID. The POTENTIAL FOR A NEW FRONT OPENING IN SUMY OBLAST and the REPORTED STRIKE ON A DRONE WAREHOUSE are MAJOR CONCERNS. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND SWIFT DECISION-MAKING are CRITICAL. MAINTAINING ALLIANCES and SECURING CONTINUED SUPPORT are also PARAMOUNT.