Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 22, 2025, 07:57 UTC
Changes and New Information (07:27 UTC - 07:57 UTC)
REPORTED RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS ON DONETSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:27 UTC) reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast.
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (07:47 UTC) reports a threat of the use of airborne weapons in the Dnipropetrovsk region!
Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED AND EXPANDING RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY, with the ONGOING THREAT of guided bomb attacks now confirmed in DONETSK OBLAST and a threat in DNIPROPETROVSK. This represents a WIDENING OF THE AREA UNDER DIRECT THREAT from Russian air power.
REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (07:36 UTC) provides an update on the Pokrovsk direction, stating that Russian offensive tempo has slowed due to Ukrainian reinforcements. The report claims Ukrainian counterattacks near Nova Poltavka and Zelene Pole using heavy equipment, but that these attempts are being thwarted by Russian reconnaissance and FPV drones. It also alleges that Ukrainian forces are being concentrated in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad for a potential strike group, and that the Ukrainian 414th brigade ("Birds of Magyar") is operating near Pokrovsk.
РБК-Україна (07:52 UTC) OSINT sources indicate active combat, with Russian forces making continued progress.
Assessment: These reports REINFORCE previous claims of INTENSE FIGHTING in the POKROVSK DIRECTION, but suggest a SHIFTING DYNAMIC. While Russian advances may have slowed, UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS are reported, indicating an attempt to REGAIN LOST GROUND. The alleged concentration of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad SUGGESTS PREPARATION FOR A MAJOR COUNTEROFFENSIVE. The presence of the "Birds of Magyar" unit HIGHLIGHTS THE IMPORTANCE Ukraine places on defending this area.
REPORTED UKRAINE-US MINERAL RIGHTS AGREEMENT IMMINENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (07:30 UTC), citing The Wall Street Journal, reports that an agreement between Ukraine and the US regarding mineral resources may be signed TODAY, February 22nd. The report states that the agreement is not yet finalized, but negotiations are nearing completion.
Assessment: This adds CREDIBILITY to the previous reports of a potential deal, but DOES NOT CONFIRM the agreement's details or its connection to the alleged Starlink threat. The timing of the potential signing (today) INCREASES THE URGENCY of understanding its terms and implications.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN TEMPORARY DEPLOYMENT POINT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, UNVERIFIED):
ТАСС (07:53 UTC), citing Vladimir Saldo, reports the destruction of a Ukrainian temporary deployment point on the right bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. Video provided.
Assessment: This report REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The claimed location (right bank of the Dnipro) is significant, as it would be within Ukrainian-controlled territory. The video appears to show the destruction of a building.
Два майора (07:52 UTC) claims that a Russian FAB with a UMPK (glide bomb kit) destroyed a Ukrainian electronic reconnaissance (RER) system ("Plastun"), Starlink terminals, dugouts, and shelters. Video provided.
Assessment: This report REQUIRES VERIFICATION. The claimed destruction of a "Plastun" RER system and Starlink terminals would be a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to Ukrainian intelligence capabilities if confirmed.
REPORTED FIGHTING IN KUPYANSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Рыбарь (07:47 UTC) claims Russian success at the Northern front of Kupyansk, in the area of Dvurechnaya and Figolevka.
MEDVEDEV'S STATEMENTS ON TRUMP ADMINISTRATION (LOW PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):
ТАСС (07:33 UTC) reports Medvedev stating that the Trump administration should be judged by its actions.
Assessment: This is a STANDARD DIPLOMATIC STATEMENT and does not significantly alter the situation.
TRAINING OF UKRAINIAN INFANTRY IN FOREST WARFARE(LOW PRIORITY):
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (07:29) shared images and captions of the 58th separate motorized infantry brigade.
Воин DV (07:30) published footage of drone strikes on a tank in the South Donetsk region.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS the ongoing drone strike.
PROPAGANDA AND DIPLOMACY:
Several individuals and channels have reported on potential diplomatic discussions.
Assessment: Negotiations are ongoing, and there are no notable changes.
Updated Situation Summary
INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports indicate a SHIFTING DYNAMIC, with potential UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS and preparations for a MAJOR COUNTEROFFENSIVE.
EXPANDING RUSSIAN AIR ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):CONFIRMED guided bomb attacks in DONETSK OBLAST and a threat to DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
POTENTIAL UKRAINE-US MINERAL RIGHTS AGREEMENT IMMINENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): This adds CREDIBILITY to previous reports, but DOES NOT CONFIRM details or connection to the alleged Starlink threat.
CLAIMED DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINIAN MILITARY ASSETS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Russian sources claim destruction of a temporary deployment point, an RER system, and Starlink terminals.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT FOR AIR ATTACKS, PRIORITIZE DONETSK AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy and activate air defense systems in DONETSK and DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS in response to the CONFIRMED AND EXPANDING THREAT.
Maintain high alert across all other threatened regions.
ASSESS AND RESPOND TO SITUATION IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather intelligence on the scale and success of reported Ukrainian counterattacks.
Verify reports of Ukrainian force concentrations in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
Assess the potential for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive and prepare DEFENSIVE AND COUNTER-OFFENSIVE STRATEGIES.
Provide maximum support to Ukrainian forces in this area, including AIR DEFENSE, INTELLIGENCE, AND LOGISTICAL SUPPORT.
VERIFY CLAIMS OF DESTROYED UKRAINIAN ASSETS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claims of destroying a temporary deployment point, an RER system, and Starlink terminals.
Assess the impact on Ukrainian capabilities if these claims are confirmed.
CLARIFY TERMS OF POTENTIAL UKRAINE-US MINERAL RIGHTS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Seek details on the agreement's terms, including specific resources involved, timelines, and any conditions related to military aid or Starlink access.
Assess the potential impact on Ukraine's economy and its ability to finance the war effort.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The EXPANDING RUSSIAN AIR THREAT and the SHIFTING DYNAMICS in the POKROVSK DIRECTION are IMMEDIATE CONCERNS. The POTENTIAL UKRAINE-US AGREEMENT could have SIGNIFICANT LONG-TERM IMPLICATIONS. CONTINUOUS MONITORING, RAPID RESPONSE CAPABILITIES, and EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING are ESSENTIAL. The possibility of Starlink being cut off is less likely, given the new information.
