Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 21:54 UTC

Changes and New Information (21:24 UTC - 21:54 UTC)

1. EXTENSIVE AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (21:24 UTC) and Николаевский Ванёк (21:24, 21:38 UTC) provide detailed reports of a MASSIVE AND WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK targeting multiple regions across Ukraine. Affected areas include:

     • Kyiv Oblast and Kyiv City
     • Zhytomyr Oblast
     • Chernihiv Oblast
     • Sumy Oblast
     • Poltava Oblast (including Myrgorod)
     • Cherkasy Oblast
     • Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (including Dnipro City and Kryvyi Rih)
     • Kirovohrad Oblast
     • Vinnytsia Oblast
     • Kherson Oblast
     • Mykolaiv Oblast

   • Assessment: This represents a MAJOR ESCALATION in Russian air operations, with a SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF DRONES targeting a WIDE GEOGRAPHIC AREA. The simultaneous targeting of multiple regions suggests a COORDINATED ATTACK designed to OVERWHELM UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSES. The targeting of major cities (Kyiv, Dnipro, Kryvyi Rih) and key infrastructure (potentially including energy, transportation, and communications) indicates a HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE INTENT. The sheer scale of the attack SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES THE RISK OF CIVILIAN CASUALTIES and WIDESPREAD DAMAGE. This attack is likely to last many hours.

2. TRUMP CALLS FOR ZELENSKY-PUTIN COOPERATION, NEGOTIATIONS NEXT TUESDAY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (21:28 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:41 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (21:52 UTC) and STERNENKO (21:45) and РБК-Україна (21:50) report that Trump has called for Zelensky and Putin to "work together" and that US-Russia negotiations will begin next Tuesday (February 25th) in Saudi Arabia.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES previous reports of planned negotiations, CONFIRMING THE DATE AND LOCATION. Trump's call for Zelensky-Putin cooperation is HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO BE HEEDED given the current state of the conflict, but it SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES PRESSURE ON ZELENSKY and HIGHLIGHTS THE DIVERGENCE between US and Ukrainian interests under a Trump administration. The initiation of US-Russia talks WITHOUT UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION is a MAJOR CONCERN for Ukraine and its allies.

3. TRUMP THREATENS UKRAINE OVER MINERALS DEAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • Alex Parker Returns (21:40 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (21:41 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (21:52) and ТАСС (21:49) report that Trump has stated Ukraine will face "problems" if it does not sign a deal regarding minerals. Alex Parker Returns (21:51) casts doubt on whether Ukraine possesses rare earth elements.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the previously reported pressure on Ukraine regarding its mineral resources, ESCALATING IT TO A DIRECT THREAT. This DEMONSTRATES A CLEARLY TRANSACTIONAL APPROACH by the Trump administration, prioritizing US economic interests over Ukrainian sovereignty and security. The doubt cast on Ukraine's mineral wealth suggests a POTENTIAL PRETEXT for US actions or a NEGOTIATION TACTIC to devalue Ukraine's resources.

4. US RESOLUTION DOES NOT BLAME RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (21:29 UTC) claims a new US resolution at the UN General Assembly on Ukraine does not blame Russia for starting the conflict. Trump is quoted as blaming Zelensky and Biden.
   • Assessment: This report, from a RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION. If true, it represents a MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY and a SIGNIFICANT VICTORY FOR RUSSIAN DIPLOMACY. It would further UNDERMINE INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE and LEGITIMIZE RUSSIA'S NARRATIVE.

5. KNIFE ATTACK IN BERLIN (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

• АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (21:28) reports a knife attack.
  • Assessment: This report is relevant because it mentions German social media accounts that voice support for stopping support for Ukraine, but it is NOT a high priority military matter.

6. UKRAINIAN BRIGADE DESTROYS RUSSIAN ARMORED COLUMN (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (21:41 UTC) shows a video of the 37th Marine Brigade destroying a Russian armored column, claiming the loss of 10 Russian vehicles (2 tanks, 2 IFVs, 6 armored vehicles) with no Ukrainian losses.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN VICTORY and DEMONSTRATES THE EFFECTIVENESS OF UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE TACTICS, particularly the COMBINATION OF MINEFIELDS AND DRONE STRIKES. It REINFORCES previous reports on the importance of these capabilities.

7. HEAVY FIGHTING CONTINUES AROUND TORETSK, CHASIV YAR, AND BILOHORIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (21:44 UTC) shows a video highlighting the destruction in these towns and reporting continued heavy fighting, with high Russian casualties claimed.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE ONGOING INTENSE FIGHTING in these areas, HIGHLIGHTING THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE of these settlements. The claimed high Russian casualties, if accurate, suggest a HIGH LEVEL OF ATTRITION in these battles.

8. ZELENSKY CONTINUES DIPLOMATIC OUTREACH (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Zelenskiy / Official (21:41) confirmed a meeting with Luxembourg.
   • Assessment: REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of Zelensky's ongoing efforts to maintain international support.

9. RUSSIAN SOLDIERS REPORTEDLY COMMITTING CRIMES TO AVOID FRONTLINE DUTY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (21:50 UTC) reports that Russian soldiers are committing minor crimes to be imprisoned rather than sent to the front lines, citing high casualties.
   • Assessment: This report, if accurate, suggests EXTREMELY LOW MORALE and DESPERATION among Russian troops, potentially indicating a BREAKDOWN IN MILITARY DISCIPLINE. It also HIGHLIGHTS THE HIGH COST of the conflict for Russia.

Updated Situation Summary

• MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK UNDERWAY (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A MAJOR RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK is targeting MULTIPLE REGIONS ACROSS UKRAINE SIMULTANEOUSLY, posing a SEVERE THREAT to civilians and infrastructure. This is a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE ACTION.
• TRUMP ESCALATES PRESSURE ON UKRAINE, THREATENS OVER MINERALS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Trump's direct threat to Ukraine over a minerals deal DEMONSTRATES A CLEARLY TRANSACTIONAL AND HOSTILE APPROACH, prioritizing US interests over Ukrainian sovereignty.
• US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS CONFIRMED FOR NEXT TUESDAY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The upcoming talks in Saudi Arabia, WITHOUT UKRAINIAN PARTICIPATION, raise SERIOUS CONCERNS about the future of the conflict and potential concessions made at Ukraine's expense.
• POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY AT UN (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): The claim that a new US resolution does not blame Russia for the conflict, if true, would be a MAJOR BLOW TO UKRAINE and a SIGNIFICANT VICTORY FOR RUSSIA.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES ACHIEVE TACTICAL VICTORIES (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The successful defense against a Russian armored column and the continued resistance in key towns DEMONSTRATE UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY AND RESOLVE.
• RUSSIAN MORALE APPEARS TO BE COLLAPSING (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Russian soldiers committing crimes to avoid combat suggest EXTREME DESPERATION AND LOW MORALE.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. PRIORITIZE AIR DEFENSE ACROSS ALL AFFECTED REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy all available air defense systems to INTERCEPT INCOMING DRONES, prioritizing the protection of MAJOR CITIES, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, and CIVILIAN POPULATIONS.
   • Coordinate with regional air defense units to MAXIMIZE COVERAGE and SHARE REAL-TIME INTELLIGENCE on drone movements.
   • Issue public warnings and ADVISE CIVILIANS TO SEEK SHELTER.
   • Prepare for potential mass casualty events and MOBILIZE EMERGENCY RESPONSE TEAMS.

2. ADDRESS TRUMP'S THREATS AND PREPARE FOR NEGOTIATIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Seek immediate clarification from US diplomatic channels regarding the nature of the threatened "problems" and the specific demands related to minerals.
   • Develop a contingency plan for a potential rupture in US-Ukraine relations and a reduction or cessation of US aid.
   • Intensify diplomatic efforts with other allies to SECURE ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF SUPPORT and COUNTER US PRESSURE.
   • Prepare a strong legal and diplomatic response to any attempt to seize Ukrainian assets or force unfavorable concessions.
   • Coordinate with international partners to EXERT PRESSURE ON THE US to maintain a supportive stance towards Ukraine.
   • Prepare a clear strategy for engaging with the US-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia, even if not directly participating. Identify key objectives and red lines.

3. VERIFY REPORT ON US UN RESOLUTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Obtain a copy of the draft resolution and ANALYZE ITS CONTENT.
   • Consult with legal experts to ASSESS THE IMPLICATIONS of the resolution.
   • Lobby UN member states to OPPOSE ANY RESOLUTION that undermines Ukraine's position or legitimizes Russia's actions.

4. EXPLOIT RUSSIAN MORALE ISSUES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Gather intelligence on the extent of low morale and desertion among Russian troops.
   • Develop targeted information operations to ENCOURAGE FURTHER DEFECTIONS and UNDERMINE RUSSIAN RECRUITMENT EFFORTS.
   • Offer amnesties or incentives to Russian soldiers who surrender or provide intelligence.

5. MAINTAIN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS AND EXPLOIT TACTICAL VICTORIES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to reinforce defensive positions in key areas, particularly those targeted by Russian offensives.
   • Replicate successful defensive tactics, such as the combination of minefields and drone strikes.
   • Gather intelligence on Russian troop movements and vulnerabilities to IDENTIFY OPPORTUNITIES FOR COUNTERATTACKS.

6. CONTINUE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remain Valid

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation has DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY with the MASSIVE DRONE ATTACK and TRUMP'S ESCALATION OF PRESSURE ON UKRAINE. The IMMEDIATE PRIORITIES are to DEFEND AGAINST THE DRONE ATTACK, ADDRESS THE US THREATS, and PREPARE FOR THE US-RUSSIA NEGOTIATIONS. The POTENTIAL FOR A MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY adds a CRITICAL LAYER OF URGENCY. RAPID RESPONSE, ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES, AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION are ESSENTIAL.