Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 20:54 UTC
Changes and New Information (20:25 UTC - 20:54 UTC)
DRONE ACTIVITY NEAR KYIV AND OTHER CITIES (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Николаевский Ванёк (20:49 UTC) reports one drone approaching Kyiv from the Vyshgorod direction, expecting it to be loud. Also, four drones are approaching Brovary. Additionally, one drone is reported over Kropyvnytskyi, six drones are heading towards/through Dnipro, and two drones are near Cherkasy.
Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUATION OF THE WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK, with the threat to Kyiv intensifying. The approach from Vyshgorod and Brovary suggests multiple attack vectors on the capital. The reports from other cities confirm that the attack is NOT LIMITED TO KYIV and remains a MULTI-REGIONAL THREAT.
EXPLOSIONS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (20:38 UTC) reports explosions in the Kyiv-controlled city of Zaporizhzhia.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS THAT ZAPORIZHZHIA REMAINS A TARGET of Russian strikes, likely part of the ongoing drone attack, although other means of attack cannot be ruled out.
POLISH FOREIGN MINISTER DISPLAYS DOWNED DRONE (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:28 UTC) shows a video of the Polish Foreign Minister at an international conference with a downed Shahed drone. The drone was reportedly shot down by Ukrainian forces and transported to Poland by decision of Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
Assessment: This serves as a POWERFUL VISUAL REMINDER of the REALITY OF THE DRONE THREAT and the INTERNATIONAL DIMENSION of the conflict. It highlights POLISH SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE and demonstrates the TANGIBLE CONSEQUENCES of Russian aggression.
UKRAINIAN GENERAL STAFF REPORT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (20:46 UTC) provides an operational update as of 22:00 UTC:
80 combat clashes occurred during the day.
Russian forces conducted 1 missile strike, 43 airstrikes (using 2 missiles and 53 KABs), 1128 kamikaze drone strikes, and over 4000 shellings.
Kharkiv Direction: One Russian assault repelled near Vovchansk, another ongoing. Airstrike on Zolochiv.
Kupyansk Direction: Five Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainian forces near Zahryzove. One clash ongoing.
Lyman Direction: Seven Russian attacks near Kopanky, Novolyubivka, Terny, Yampolivka, and Kolodyazi. Two clashes ongoing. Airstrike on Borova.
Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian forces are repelling three Russian attempts to advance near Vasyukivka. Airstrikes on Chasiv Yar and Kostyantynivka.
Toretsk Direction: Nine Russian attempts to penetrate Ukrainian defenses. Two Russian assaults repelled near Toretsk and Dyliivka, seven attacks ongoing.
Pokrovsk Direction: 29 Russian assaults repelled. Intense Russian activity near Vodyane Druhe, Yelyzavetivka, Svyrydonivka, Promin, Pishchane, Serhiivka, Andriivka, Ulakly, Udachne, Nadiivka, and Molodetske. Airstrikes on Hrodivka, Lysivka, Myrnohrad, and Novooleksandrivka. Reported Russian losses: 245 personnel (101 KIA), 7 vehicles, 1 cannon, 1 BMP, 1 BM-21 Grad, 2 motorcycles. Also damaged: 1 tank, 1 TOS-2, 1 cannon, 1 vehicle.
Novopavlivka Direction: Five Russian assaults stopped near Kostyantynopil and Burlatske.
Huliaipole Direction: Airstrikes with unguided rockets on Novopil and Huliaipole.
Orikhiv Direction: Three Russian attacks ongoing near Shcherbaky and Pyatykhatky.
Siversky and Prydniprovsky Directions: No Russian offensive actions.
Highlights the 128th Territorial Defense Brigade and 79th Border Guard Detachment for holding off superior enemy forces.
Assessment: This provides a COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW OF THE DAY'S FIGHTING, highlighting the INTENSITY OF RUSSIAN ATTACKS, particularly on the POKROVSK DIRECTION. The reported Russian losses, if accurate, are SIGNIFICANT. The report confirms CONTINUED FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS and PERSISTENT RUSSIAN AERIAL AND ARTILLERY BOMBARDMENT.
ZELENSKY COMMUNICATES WITH INTERNATIONAL LEADERS (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Zelenskiy / Official and 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (20:46 UTC) report on Zelensky's calls with leaders of Poland, Croatia, Czech Republic, Sweden, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Ireland, and Côte d'Ivoire. Discussions focused on security cooperation, defense support, and strategies for achieving peace.
РБК-Україна (20:53 UTC) Reports that Zelenskyy talked about key directions, and confirmed the work of an agreement with the USA.
Assessment: This underscores UKRAINE'S INTENSIVE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS to maintain international support and coordinate responses to the conflict. The mention of "hybrid threats" and incidents in the Baltic Sea suggests a BROADENING SCOPE OF SECURITY CONCERNS.
US MAY WITHDRAW FROM PUTIN TRIBUNAL EFFORTS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
РБК-Україна (20:28 UTC), citing The Telegraph, reports that US representatives did not want to call Russia an "aggressor" and there are fears in Europe that Trump's praise for Putin may lead to him being cleared of war crimes.
Assessment: This is HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT, suggesting a POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT in US policy towards holding Russia accountable for war crimes. It REINFORCES CONCERNS about the IMPACT OF A POTENTIAL TRUMP PRESIDENCY on the conflict.
RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
MoD Russia (20:29 UTC) claims that from February 15 to 21, Russian forces carried out 11 group strikes with long-range weapons and UAVs, hitting gas-power and port infrastructure, and electrical substations supporting the Ukrainian defense industry. Claims to have liberated Nadezhdinka, Novoocheretovatoye, and Novoselka. Claims AFU losses in Kursk region of over 250 troops, various vehicles, and equipment.
Assessment: These claims REQUIRE CAREFUL VERIFICATION. They likely represent RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA but CANNOT BE DISMISSED OUTRIGHT. The claimed strikes on infrastructure align with known Russian targeting strategies. The claimed liberation of settlements should be cross-referenced with other sources.
TRUMP UNFREEZES INTERNATIONAL AID, BUT NOT FOR UKRAINE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (20:52 UTC), citing Reuters, reports Trump unfroze $5.3 billion in international aid for combating drugs and migrants, but not for Ukraine.
Assessment: This further REINFORCES CONCERNS about a potential REDUCTION IN US SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE under a Trump presidency.
ELON MUSK'S POSITION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Alex Parker Returns (20:52 UTC) reports that Elon Musk was criticized for his support of Ukraine, but he thinks that Ukrainians are making the war continue.
Updated Situation Summary
CONTINUED, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The drone attack continues, with KYIV NOW UNDER DIRECT THREAT from multiple directions. ZAPORIZHZHIA also remains a target. The attack is MULTI-REGIONAL and poses a SIGNIFICANT THREAT to civilians and infrastructure.
INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian General Staff report confirms FIERCE FIGHTING across numerous directions, with the POKROVSK DIRECTION experiencing the MOST INTENSE RUSSIAN ATTACKS.
POTENTIAL MAJOR SHIFT IN US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports suggest the US may withdraw from efforts to hold Putin accountable for war crimes, raising serious concerns about the future of international justice and the implications of a potential Trump presidency. Trump has also unfrozen international aid, but not for Ukraine.
UKRAINE'S INTENSIVE DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Zelensky continues to engage with international leaders to maintain support and coordinate responses.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS REQUIRE VERIFICATION (HIGH PRIORITY): The Russian MoD's claims of strikes and territorial gains should be treated with caution but investigated.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE PRIORITY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect. FOCUS ON PROTECTING KYIV given the reported drone approaches from multiple directions. Continue to PRIORITIZE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE across all threatened regions.
ASSESS AND RESPOND TO THE SITUATION IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Confirm the nature and extent of damage from the reported explosions.
Provide assistance to affected civilians.
Maintain heightened air defense alert.
ADDRESS POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE AND ONGOING ACTION):
Seek clarification from US diplomatic sources regarding their position on the Putin tribunal.
Develop contingency plans for a potential reduction in US support.
Intensify diplomatic efforts with other allies to COMPENSATE FOR ANY POTENTIAL LOSS OF US SUPPORT.
Explore alternative avenues for holding Russia accountable for war crimes.
VERIFY RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed strikes on infrastructure and the liberation of settlements.
Assess the impact of any confirmed strikes or territorial changes.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND RESPOND TO FIGHTING ACROSS ALL FRONTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Maintain a high state of readiness to repel Russian attacks.
Prioritize reinforcing positions on the POKROVSK DIRECTION, given the intensity of Russian attacks.
Continue to gather intelligence on Russian troop movements and intentions.
SUPPORT UKRAINE'S DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Provide intelligence and logistical support to facilitate communication with international partners.
Coordinate messaging to MAINTAIN INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT for Ukraine.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY CRITICAL AND DYNAMIC. The CONTINUING DRONE ATTACK, the INTENSE FIGHTING ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS, and the POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY are the HIGHEST PRIORITIES. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND DECISIVE MILITARY AND DIPLOMATIC ACTION are ESSENTIAL. The POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION remains HIGH. The UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING US POLICY adds a SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF COMPLEXITY and REQUIRES IMMEDIATE AND SUSTAINED ATTENTION.
