Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 18:00 UTC
Changes and New Information (17:54 UTC - 18:00 UTC)
TRUMP'S CONTINUED CRITICISM OF ZELENSKY AND UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Colonelcassad (17:55 UTC) reports Trump stating it's time to figure out where all the aid money to Ukraine has gone.
РБК-Україна (17:57 UTC) reports Trump making a new series of harsh statements about Zelensky and the war in Ukraine, including:
He had "very good discussions" with Putin, but not with Ukraine.
Zelensky has "no cards in his hand" and it's difficult to reach agreements with him.
Putin wants an agreement, but "if he wanted, he would have gotten the whole country."
Russia attacked unreasonably, but Zelensky and Biden "negotiated incorrectly."
Scott Bessent's visit to Kyiv with the minerals agreement was a waste of time.
Assessment: This FURTHER ESCALATES Trump's NEGATIVE RHETORIC towards Zelensky and Ukraine, SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERMINING support and potentially PRECONDITIONING future aid (or lack thereof) on drastic changes in Ukraine's approach. The claims about Putin's willingness to negotiate and Zelensky's lack of leverage are PARTICULARLY CONCERNING, as they BOLSTER THE RUSSIAN NARRATIVE and WEAKEN UKRAINE'S POSITION. The continued focus on the minerals agreement and Bessent's visit REINFORCES PREVIOUS TENSIONS and suggests a MAJOR STICKING POINT.
DRONE THREAT IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (17:58 UTC) reports a threat of the use of attack UAVs in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Assessment: This indicates POTENTIAL RUSSIAN AIR ACTIVITY and a THREAT TO UKRAINIAN FORCES AND INFRASTRUCTURE in this region. AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE ON HIGH ALERT.
CLAIMED RESCUE OF UKRAINIAN POW BY RUSSIAN FORCES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
MoD Russia (17:59 UTC) provides a video of a Ukrainian POW, Sergei Pachkov, claiming he was abandoned by Ukrainian forces in Plyokhovo (Kursk region) after being wounded and was later found and provided medical care by Russian servicemen.
Assessment: This REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION. While the video shows a man claiming to be a Ukrainian POW, the circumstances of his abandonment and rescue COULD BE STAGED OR EXAGGERATED for propaganda purposes. HOWEVER, if confirmed, this COULD BE USED TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL MISTREATMENT of Ukrainian soldiers by their own forces, which COULD BE USED TO ENCOURAGE SURRENDER.
RUSSIAN REPORT ON FIGHTING NEAR POKROVSK (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):
Рыбарь (17:58 UTC) provides a video and analysis of fighting near Pokrovsk, claiming:
Russian forces reached the southern outskirts of the Pokrovsk agglomeration by late January 2025.
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks near Kotlyno and Peschanoe, slightly expanding their control zone.
Russian forces have fully liberated Lysovka.
Russian forces are advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the Novopavlovsk direction.
Assessment: This REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, this indicates SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES towards Pokrovsk and a POTENTIAL THREAT TO UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE LINES. The claim of capturing Lysovka is PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT and needs IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION. The reported advance towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast SUGGESTS A WIDENING OF THE OFFENSIVE.
Updated Situation Summary
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):NEW reports of significant Russian advances towards Pokrovsk, including the claimed capture of Lysovka.
CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed strikes in DNIPROPETROVSK REGION and a reported terrorist attack in ODESA. NEW reports of civilian casualties and damage in HULIAIPOLE.
ALLEGATIONS OF WAR CRIMES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES INVESTIGATION): Reports of executions of Ukrainian POWs DEMAND IMMEDIATE INTERNATIONAL INVESTIGATION.
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces have reportedly CAPTURED NOVOOCHERETUVATE AND NOVOSELKA. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT requiring IMMEDIATE RESPONSE.
CLAIM OF FRIENDLY FIRE AVOIDANCE TACTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): A captured Russian soldier claims red flags were used on vehicles to prevent friendly fire, potentially indicating POOR COORDINATION and POSSIBLE FOREIGN FIGHTER INVOLVEMENT.
UKRAINIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO INFLICT DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES): The Ukrainian 63rd Brigade claims to have destroyed various Russian vehicles, including a rare BAT-2. ОТУ "Харків" reports Ukrainian RSZV activity in the Vovchansk direction.
UKRAINE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRONE WARFARE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Ukraine plans to spend over $1.1 billion on FPV drones in 2025.
REPORTS OF HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Over 600,000 Russian wounded are reported, with access to a database of over 160,000 patients claimed.
TRUMP'S STATEMENTS CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONTROVERSY AND UNDERMINE SUPPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Trump's comments downplaying Zelensky's role and blaming both sides for the conflict reinforce the narrative of a POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY. NEW reports of Trump avoiding blaming Russia and escalating his negative rhetoric towards Zelensky.
INFORMATION WARFARE INTENSIFIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The SBU warns of increased Russian disinformation efforts.
POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH US-UKRAINE MINERALS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Concerns remain about security guarantees. NEW reports of US officials accusing Zelensky of lying about the agreement and Trump reiterating this concern.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
INCREASING EUROPEAN CONCERN ABOUT US COMMITMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of Germany expressing concern about a potential US withdrawal from its allies and planning for increased European defense efforts.
NEW DRONE THREATS REPORTED IN KHARKIV, DONETSK, SUMY, AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Ukrainian air force reports potential drone attacks, requiring heightened air defense readiness.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF SHOOTING DOWN UKRAINIAN DRONE NEAR POLOGI (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION).
REPORTS OF A POTENTIAL TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE (LOW PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION).
CLAIMED RESCUE OF UKRAINIAN POW (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION. Could be used for propaganda purposes.
Updated Recommendations
ADDRESS REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, ESPECIALLY NEAR POKROVSK (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Urgently verify the reported Russian advances in the DONETSK, ZAPORIZHZHIA, AND KHARKIV REGIONS, ESPECIALLY THE CLAIMED CAPTURE OF LYSOVKA AND ADVANCES NEAR POKROVSK.
Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in threatened areas, ESPECIALLY AROUND POKROVSK.
Deploy additional anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS.
Assess the potential for counterattacks, but ONLY IF RESOURCES AND CONDITIONS ALLOW.
Prepare for potential encirclement attempts and ESTABLISH SECONDARY DEFENSIVE LINES.
INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF WAR CRIMES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather all available evidence regarding the reported executions of Ukrainian POWs.
Coordinate with international organizations (e.g., ICC, UN) to launch an IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION.
Document all evidence for potential future prosecutions.
RESPOND TO TERRORIST ATTACK IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Thoroughly investigate the car bombing, focusing on identifying all individuals and organizations involved.
Increase security measures in Odesa to prevent further attacks.
Provide support to the victims and their families.
ADDRESS CONTINUED RUSSIAN STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Maintain high alert status for air defenses in DNIPROPETROVSK REGION, HULIAIPOLE, and other threatened areas, INCLUDING THE NEW DRONE THREAT IN DNIPROPETROVSK OBLAST.
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
Assess damage from recent strikes and provide necessary assistance.
COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION AND ADDRESS TRUMP'S STATEMENTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Implement a comprehensive strategy to counter Russian disinformation efforts, ESPECIALLY REGARDING CLAIMS OF UKRAINIAN POW MISTREATMENT.
Strengthen public awareness campaigns to educate citizens about disinformation tactics.
Work with social media platforms to remove fake accounts and limit the spread of false information.
Engage in DIRECT AND URGENT DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS WITH THE US to address Trump's statements and REINFORCE COMMITMENT TO UKRAINE.
Prepare a STRONG AND CLEAR PUBLIC RESPONSE to Trump's accusations, REFUTING FALSE CLAIMS and HIGHLIGHTING THE REALITY OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION.
Engage in immediate discussions with US counterparts to address the "issues" with security guarantees.
Seek concrete commitments to ensure Ukraine's security and sovereignty.
Address accusations of lying DIRECTLY AND FORCEFULLY.
MONITOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS (LOW PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Continue to track statements from political figures, particularly Donald Trump, regarding the conflict.
Assess the potential impact of these statements on international support for Ukraine.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
ADDRESS GERMAN CONCERNS:
Engage in immediate discussions with German counterparts.
Maintain good relations and support.
ADDRESS NEW DRONE THREATS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Maintain high alert status for air defenses in KHARKIV, DONETSK, SUMY, AND DNIPROPETROVSK OBLASTS.
Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
VERIFY CLAIMED RESCUE OF UKRAINIAN POW (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Gather all available intelligence regarding the reported rescue of the Ukrainian POW in Plyokhovo.
Attempt to independently verify the circumstances of his capture and alleged abandonment.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE, with a SIGNIFICANT ESCALATION IN RISK. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, particularly near Pokrovsk, CONTINUED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, ALLEGATIONS OF WAR CRIMES, and the DETERIORATING RELATIONSHIP WITH THE US DUE TO TRUMP'S STATEMENTS pose MAJOR THREATS. The potential for a MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH in multiple areas, INCLUDING KHARKIV REGION AND NOW POTENTIALLY POKROVSK, remains a TOP CONCERN. RAPID RESPONSE, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL. VERIFICATION OF ALL CLAIMS AND INTELLIGENCE GATHERING remain crucial. ADDRESSING TENSIONS WITH THE US is CRITICAL and requires IMMEDIATE AND FORCEFUL ACTION. The new reported drone threats and the potential for further Russian advances REQUIRE IMMEDIATE ATTENTION.
