Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 16:54 UTC

Changes and New Information (16:24 UTC - 16:54 UTC)

1. REPORTED EXECUTIONS OF UKRAINIAN POWS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN/FINANCIAL TIMES):

   • ✙DeepState✙🇺🇦 (16:24 UTC) and Financial Times report that Ukrainian military prosecutors believe the execution of surrendering POWs is part of a deliberate Russian policy. DeepStateUA co-founders were interviewed.
   • Assessment: This is a SERIOUS ALLEGATION and, if confirmed, constitutes a WAR CRIME. It indicates a SYSTEMATIC DISREGARD FOR INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN LAW by Russian forces. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION by international bodies and DEMANDS ACCOUNTABILITY.

2. RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS IN ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Два майора (16:26 UTC) reports ongoing Russian offensive actions near Pyatykhatky, Zaporizhzhia region. Claims include artillery and drone support, targeting of Ukrainian positions and personnel.
   • Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE in the ZAPORIZHZHIA REGION. The use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting is CONSISTENT with previous reports. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION IS NEEDED.

3. ESTONIA AND FRANCE TO CONVENE MEETING ON UKRAINE SUPPORT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN/BLOOMBERG):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (16:25 UTC) citing Bloomberg, reports Estonia and France will convene a meeting of European defense ministers on February 24th to discuss strengthening support for Ukraine. Attendees are expected to include representatives from the UK, Germany, Italy, Poland, the EU, and NATO.
   • Assessment: This indicates a CONTINUED EFFORT by European nations to COORDINATE SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE. The meeting's focus on STRENGTHENING SUPPORT suggests a recognition of INCREASING NEEDS in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.

4. "ISSUES" WITH US-UKRAINE MINERALS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (16:28 UTC), citing Suspilne, reports that the US-Ukraine minerals agreement still has "issues" regarding security guarantees that need to be addressed.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS CONCERNS about the agreement. The lack of clear security guarantees UNDERMINES UKRAINE'S POSITION and RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AGREEMENT'S LONG-TERM VIABILITY.

5. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT ZELENSKY'S NEGOTIATING POSITION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):

   • STERNENKO (16:25 UTC), Басурин о главном (16:31 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (16:30 UTC) all report on Trump's statement that Zelensky doesn't need to be at the negotiating table, claiming he has no "cards in his sleeve."
   • Assessment: This CONTINUES THE NARRATIVE of UNDERMINING ZELENSKY'S LEADERSHIP and QUESTIONING HIS LEGITIMACY in any potential negotiations. This aligns with RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA EFFORTS.

6. REPORTED TERRORIST ATTACK IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Офіс Генерального прокурора (16:30 UTC) reports a terrorist attack in Odesa involving a car bomb. A citizen has been charged with the crime. The suspect allegedly received instructions and payment via Telegram.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A TERRORIST ACT in ODESA, targeting a MILITARY PROSECUTOR. The reported involvement of Telegram and payment suggests a POTENTIAL RUSSIAN CONNECTION. This REQUIRES THOROUGH INVESTIGATION. The images show a detained individual and materials that could possibly make an IED.

7. RUSSIAN STRIKES IN DNIPROPETROVSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦Сергій Лисак / Дніпропетровська ОДА (ОВА) (16:30 UTC) reports Russian drone and artillery strikes in Nikopol, Marhanetska, Pokrovska, and Chervonohryhorivska communities. Damage to a nine-story building, a private house, and infrastructure is reported. No casualties are reported.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE in the DNIPROPETROVSK REGION. The use of drones and artillery indicates a BROAD RANGE OF ATTACK CAPABILITIES. Images depict structural damages.

8. RUSSIAN CLAIM OF EVACUATING CIVILIANS (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Воин DV (16:31 UTC) claims that Russian forces of the 39th Guards Brigade evacuated civilians from Ulakly during its "liberation." Accuses Ukrainian forces of shelling civilians during the evacuation.
   • Assessment: This REQUIRES CAREFUL VERIFICATION. While civilian evacuations are possible, the claim of Ukrainian shelling NEEDS INDEPENDENT CONFIRMATION. This could be DISINFORMATION to deflect blame for civilian casualties. The video validates the civilian evacuation.

9. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (16:32) reports significant advances in the area, mentioning multiple towns/villages.
   • Assessment: This, along with multiple images corroborating advances, indicate SIGNIFICANT GAINS.

10. UKRAINIAN SBU WARNING OF RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦 (16:44 UTC) reports an SBU warning about increased Russian disinformation efforts aimed at destabilizing Ukraine. Claims include spreading fake information about protests and inciting unrest.
    • Assessment: This HIGHLIGHTS THE ONGOING INFORMATION WAR. It is CRUCIAL to COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION and MAINTAIN PUBLIC TRUST in Ukrainian institutions. The image validates the presence of a disinformation campaign.

11. UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Президентська бригада ЗСУ (16:37 UTC) shows a video of multiple successful drone strikes on Russian equipment and personnel.
    • Олексій Білошицький (16:47) shows a video of a drone striking a building.
    • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN DRONE CAPABILITIES and SUCCESSFUL TARGETING OF RUSSIAN ASSETS.

12. RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

    • Оперативний ЗСУ (16:36) reports that two Russian drones have hit infrastructure in the Shostka community.
    • Assessment: This is an ATTACK.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONS (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Multiple reports indicate SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN ADVANCES in these regions. This REQUIRES IMMEDIATE CONFIRMATION AND RESPONSE.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Confirmed strikes in DNIPROPETROVSK REGION and a reported terrorist attack in ODESA.
• ALLEGATIONS OF WAR CRIMES (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES INVESTIGATION): Reports of executions of Ukrainian POWs DEMAND IMMEDIATE INTERNATIONAL INVESTIGATION.
• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian forces have reportedly CAPTURED NOVOOCHERETUVATE AND NOVOSELKA. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT requiring IMMEDIATE RESPONSE.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): A RUSSIAN STRIKE ON KOSTYANTYNIVKA has resulted in CIVILIAN CASUALTIES AND DAMAGE.
• CLAIM OF FRIENDLY FIRE AVOIDANCE TACTICS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): A captured Russian soldier claims red flags were used on vehicles to prevent friendly fire, potentially indicating POOR COORDINATION and POSSIBLE FOREIGN FIGHTER INVOLVEMENT.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES CONTINUE TO INFLICT DAMAGE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES): The Ukrainian 63rd Brigade claims to have destroyed various Russian vehicles, including a rare BAT-2. ОТУ "Харків" reports Ukrainian RSZV activity in the Vovchansk direction.
• UKRAINE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRONE WARFARE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Ukraine plans to spend over $1.1 billion on FPV drones in 2025.
• REPORTS OF HIGH RUSSIAN CASUALTIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Over 600,000 Russian wounded are reported, with access to a database of over 160,000 patients claimed.
• TRUMP'S STATEMENTS CONTINUE TO GENERATE CONTROVERSY (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): Trump's comments downplaying Zelensky's role and blaming both sides for the conflict reinforce the narrative of a POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY.
• INFORMATION WARFARE INTENSIFIES (MEDIUM PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The SBU warns of increased Russian disinformation efforts.
• POTENTIAL ISSUES WITH US-UKRAINE MINERALS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED): Concerns remain about security guarantees.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently verify the reported Russian advances in the DONETSK AND ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONS.
   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses in threatened areas.
   • Deploy additional anti-tank weaponry and MANPADS.
   • Assess the potential for counterattacks, but ONLY IF RESOURCES AND CONDITIONS ALLOW.
   • Prepare for potential encirclement attempts and ESTABLISH SECONDARY DEFENSIVE LINES.

2. INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF WAR CRIMES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather all available evidence regarding the reported executions of Ukrainian POWs.
   • Coordinate with international organizations (e.g., ICC, UN) to launch an IMMEDIATE AND THOROUGH INVESTIGATION.
   • Document all evidence for potential future prosecutions.

3. RESPOND TO TERRORIST ATTACK IN ODESA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Thoroughly investigate the car bombing, focusing on identifying all individuals and organizations involved.
   • Increase security measures in Odesa to prevent further attacks.
   • Provide support to the victims and their families.

4. ADDRESS CONTINUED RUSSIAN STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Maintain high alert status for air defenses in DNIPROPETROVSK REGION and other threatened areas.
   • Prioritize protection of critical infrastructure and civilian populations.
   • Assess damage from recent strikes and provide necessary assistance.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Implement a comprehensive strategy to counter Russian disinformation efforts.
   • Strengthen public awareness campaigns to educate citizens about disinformation tactics.
   • Work with social media platforms to remove fake accounts and limit the spread of false information.

6. CLARIFY US-UKRAINE MINERALS AGREEMENT (MEDIUM PRIORITY, URGENT):

   • Engage in immediate discussions with US counterparts to address the "issues" with security guarantees.
   • Seek concrete commitments to ensure Ukraine's security and sovereignty.

7. MONITOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS (LOW PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue to track statements from political figures, particularly Donald Trump, regarding the conflict.
   • Assess the potential impact of these statements on international support for Ukraine.

8. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other previous recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND VOLATILE. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, CONTINUED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE, ALLEGATIONS OF WAR CRIMES, and the ONGOING INFORMATION WAR pose SIGNIFICANT THREATS. RAPID RESPONSE, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL. The potential for a MAJOR RUSSIAN BREAKTHROUGH in multiple areas remains a TOP CONCERN. VERIFICATION OF ALL CLAIMS AND INTELLIGENCE GATHERING remain crucial.