Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 10:24 UTC
Changes and New Information (09:54 UTC - 10:24 UTC)
AIR RAID ALERT ENDED IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (09:57 UTC) announced the end of the air raid alert for the Zaporizhzhia region.
Assessment: While the immediate threat has passed, vigilance remains crucial.
RUSSIAN MOD REPORTS ON HIGH-PRECISION STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):
MoD Russia (10:16 UTC) reports that between February 15th and 21st, Russian forces conducted 11 group strikes with long-range air, ground, and sea-based high-precision weapons and drones, targeting gas-power and port infrastructure, as well as electrical substations supporting the defense industry.
TASS (10:05 UTC) provides a similar report.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS A SUSTAINED RUSSIAN CAMPAIGN targeting CRITICAL UKRAINIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. The focus on gas-power, port, and defense-related electrical substations indicates a STRATEGY TO DEGRADE UKRAINE'S WARFIGHTING CAPABILITY AND ECONOMIC STABILITY.
RUSSIAN MOD CLAIMS LIBERATION OF TWO SETTLEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
MoD Russia (10:17 UTC) claims Russian forces have liberated Nadezhdinka and Novoselka in the Donetsk People's Republic.
TASS (10:06 UTC) and Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (10:10 UTC) report the same.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT CLAIM that REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION. If confirmed, these captures would represent FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the Donetsk region. The maps provided by Операция Z: Военкоры Русской ВесныSUGGEST STRATEGIC LOCATIONS near Shevchenko and Preobrazhenka, indicating POTENTIAL EFFORTS TO ENCIRCLE OR PRESSURE UKRAINIAN FORCES in these areas.
RUSSIAN MOD WEEKLY BRIEFING HIGHLIGHTS (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):
TASS (10:09 UTC) reports key points from the Russian Ministry of Defense briefing, including:
Liberation of seven settlements in the DPR, Kharkiv, and Kursk regions over the past week.
Capture of 58 Ukrainian servicemen.
Heavy Ukrainian losses across multiple fronts (South, North, East, Dnipro).
Downing of two Ukrainian MiG-29 aircraft.
Interception of 36 HIMARS rockets and a modified Neptune missile.
Assessment: These claims paint a picture of SIGNIFICANT RUSSIAN GAINS AND UKRAINIAN LOSSES. They MUST BE TREATED WITH CAUTION and VERIFIED INDEPENDENTLY. The reported downing of aircraft and interception of missiles is SIGNIFICANT, if true, as it would DEGRADE UKRAINIAN AIR AND MISSILE CAPABILITIES.
РБК-Україна (10:14 UTC) reports that Russian forces shelled Kramatorsk, damaging residential buildings in the private sector. No casualties have been reported yet.
Assessment: This INDICATES CONTINUED RUSSIAN ATTACKS on CIVILIAN AREAS.
REPORTED DRONE STRIKE ON BILA TSERKVA (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, CONFIRMED):
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (10:11 UTC) provides a video of the moment of a drone strike.
Assessment: The drone was identified as a Shahed.
OTHER REPORTS:
Alex Parker Returns (10:12 UTC) claims that US Secretary of State Rubio is "complaining" about Zelensky.
Assessment: Indicates potential discord between US and Ukraine.
ТАСС (10:13 UTC) reports that Pope Francis might retire for health reasons.
Assessment: This could affect the operations in the region.
ТАСС (09:59 UTC) reports that the commander of the "East" group of troops, Andrei Ivanaev, was promoted to the rank of Colonel-General.
* Assessment: Indicates internal personnel changes.
* 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (09:59 UTC) reports on a partnership between Tavriiska and Petrivska communities to work together on security and restoration.
* Assessment: Suggests continued community cooperation efforts.
* ТАСС (10:02 UTC) reports that the Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Viktor Goremykin presented awards to participants in a special operation at a military hospital in the Ulyanovsk region.
* Assessment: The Russian Federation continues its morale-boosting efforts.
* Рыбарь (10:04 UTC) reports on Australia.
* Assessment: Australia is helping smaller countries out of fear of Chinese influence.
* Colonelcassad (10:04 UTC) reports on nighttime strikes.
* Assessment: Suggests Russian attempts to attack Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
* АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА (10:08 UTC) reports on combat.
* Assessment: Suggests a Russian victory over Ukrainian forces.
* РБК-Україна (10:09 UTC) states that there will be an active informational war from Russia.
* Assessment: Russia continues to use misinformation campaigns.
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKES ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Russian MoD CONFIRMS a week-long campaign of HIGH-PRECISION STRIKES targeting GAS-POWER, PORT, AND DEFENSE-RELATED ELECTRICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. This represents a MAJOR ESCALATION and a SYSTEMATIC EFFORT TO DEGRADE UKRAINE'S WARFIGHTING CAPABILITY.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF TERRITORIAL GAINS (EXTREME PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCES, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The Russian MoD claims the LIBERATION OF NADEZHDINKA AND NOVOSELKA in the DPR, along with SEVEN OTHER SETTLEMENTS over the past week. These claims MUST BE URGENTLY VERIFIED. Maps from pro-Russian sources SUGGEST STRATEGIC LOCATIONS and POTENTIAL ENCIRCLEMENT MOVES.
RUSSIAN MOD WEEKLY BRIEFING CLAIMS HEAVY UKRAINIAN LOSSES (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The reported figures for Ukrainian casualties, equipment losses, and downed aircraft/missiles are SIGNIFICANT, but REQUIRE INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.
CONTINUED ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN AREAS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Reports of a Russian attack on KRAMATORSK and a DRONE STRIKE ON BILA TSERKVA highlight the ONGOING THREAT TO CIVILIANS.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
Updated Recommendations
VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF TERRITORIAL GAINS (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Utilize all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the Russian claims of liberating Nadezhdinka, Novoselka, and the other reported settlements.
Assess the extent of any Russian advances and the IMPACT ON UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS in these areas.
Prepare for potential counteroffensives to regain control of lost territory and REINFORCE DEFENSIVE LINES where necessary.
ADDRESS DAMAGE TO CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Continue efforts to repair damage to gas-power, port, and electrical infrastructure caused by Russian strikes.
Implement measures to mitigate the impact of these attacks on the civilian population and the military.
Increase air defense capabilities around critical infrastructure to PREVENT FUTURE ATTACKS.
COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Address the Russian claims of liberating settlements and inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian forces, providing COUNTER-EVIDENCE if available.
Highlight Russian attacks on civilian areas and the HUMANITARIAN COST of the conflict.
Promote accurate information about the situation on the ground and UKRAINIAN MILITARY SUCCESSES (when verified).
ASSESS AND RESPOND TO POTENTIAL INFORMATION WARFARE (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Monitor Russian media and social media channels for DISINFORMATION AND PROPAGANDA.
Counter false narratives and PROMOTE ACCURATE INFORMATION to both domestic and international audiences.
Prepare for potential escalation of Russian information operations in the coming months, as indicated by Ukrainian sources.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN STRIKES ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, the CLAIMS OF TERRITORIAL GAINS, and the ONGOING ATTACKS ON CIVILIANS demand IMMEDIATE AND CONSTANT ATTENTION. RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE COUNTER-MEASURES, AND ACCURATE INFORMATION DISSEMINATION are crucial. The INTENSIFICATION OF RUSSIAN INFORMATION WARFARE adds another layer of complexity.
