Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 06:54 UTC
Changes and New Information (06:24 UTC - 06:54 UTC)
CONFIRMATION OF MASSIVE OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACK (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
ASTRA (06:26 UTC) confirms the Ukrainian Air Force's report of 87 Russian drones shot down overnight. Reports a total of 160 drones launched. The 70 drones that were not shot down, did not reach the target.
Assessment:REINFORCES PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT of a MASSIVE, WIDESPREAD DRONE ATTACK. The confirmation of 160 launched drones underlines the SCALE of the Russian effort.
RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (06:35 UTC) claims Russian forces have advanced into Piatykhatky on the Zaporizhzhia front. Claims Ukrainian forces were partially destroyed, partially retreated, with ongoing fighting.
Assessment: This is a POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT if confirmed. Piatykhatky is a KEY LOCATION on the Zaporizhzhia front. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON OIL DEPOT IN POLTAVA OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (06:53 UTC) reports a Russian strike on an oil depot in Karlovka, Poltava Oblast, claiming it supplied fuel to Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk direction.
Assessment: This SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of damage in Poltava Oblast. If confirmed, this represents a SIGNIFICANT ATTACK ON UKRAINIAN LOGISTICS. PRIORITIZE VERIFICATION AND DAMAGE ASSESSMENT.
DRONE ACTIVITY IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (06:50 UTC) reports enemy drone activity in the Piatykhatky area.
Assessment: This SUPPORTS the report of ONGOING FIGHTING in the area.
SOUTHERN FRONT REPORT (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Сили оборони Півдня України (06:44 UTC) reports:
* Stable but tense situation in the south. No signs of Russian offensive groupings forming.
* 8 enemy assaults on the Orikhiv direction, all repelled with significant losses.
* Attack on Bashtansky district, Mykolaiv region, with damage to houses, no casualties.
* Over 340 enemy shellings in frontline areas, civilian casualties in Huliaipole (Zaporizhzhia) and Kherson region.
* Almost 500 kamikaze drone strikes, including Lancet drones, and over 380 fragmentation munitions dropped.
* Air strikes on civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, using almost 30 guided bombs (KABs) and 40 unguided rockets (NARs).
* 7 Shahed-136 drones shot down in the Tavria operational zone.
Сили оборони Півдня України (06:51 UTC) reports enemy losses: 101 personnel, 1 Buk-M3, 13 artillery systems and mortars, 1 tank, 37 armored vehicles, 7 quad bikes, 7 motorcycles, 8 recon drones, 5 boats, 1 video surveillance camera, 1 electronic warfare device, 1 generator. 22 fortifications/blinds, 3 observation points, 1 fire position were destroyed.
Assessment: This COMPREHENSIVELY CONFIRMS the INTENSE FIGHTING and WIDESPREAD USE OF DRONES AND ARTILLERY in the southern theater. The HIGH NUMBER OF DRONE STRIKES is NOTABLE.
POSSIBLE SHIFT IN US POLICY (REPORTED, MULTIPLE SOURCES):
Шеф Hayabusa (06:28 UTC) and ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:36 UTC), referencing the New York Post, report that Trump's circle believes Zelensky should leave Ukraine immediately and go to France.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:33 UTC), Оперативний ЗСУ (06:45 UTC), citing Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola, claims Trump has given Europe three weeks to "agree on the terms of Ukraine's surrender to Russia," or the US will withdraw troops from Europe.
Военкор Котенок (06:50 UTC) claims that Trump might demand Zelenskyy to leave.
Assessment: These reports, if accurate, represent a POTENTIALLY RADICAL SHIFT IN US POLICY towards the conflict. They suggest a STRONG PUSH FOR A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT, potentially ON TERMS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE TO UKRAINE. REQUIRES EXTREME CAUTION AND VERIFICATION, as these could be disinformation or misinterpretations.
ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (06:23 UTC) and РБК-Україна (06:52 UTC), citing Reuters, confirm secret meetings between US and Russian diplomats in Switzerland to discuss the war in Ukraine. The latest meeting was last week.
Assessment: This CONFIRMS THAT BACK-CHANNEL DIPLOMACY IS ONGOING, even amidst the intense fighting. This DOES NOT NECESSARILY INDICATE AN IMMINENT BREAKTHROUGH, but it does suggest that both sides are exploring potential avenues for de-escalation or negotiation.
CONFIRMATION OF US WEAPON SALES HALT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (06:28 UTC) claims that the US has frozen direct arms sales to Ukraine, citing Goncharenko. Claims private firms are awaiting a go-ahead from the new administration.
Assessment: This SUPPORTS PREVIOUS REPORTS of a potential halt in US arms supplies. This is a MAJOR DEVELOPMENT if confirmed. REQUIRES URGENT VERIFICATION FROM US SOURCES.
AIR THREAT WARNING (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (06:48 UTC) reports the enemy activity at the northeast.
* Assessment: Confirms that there is ongoing danger.
Updated Situation Summary
MASSIVE OVERNIGHT DRONE ATTACK CONFIRMED (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): 160 drones launched, 87 confirmed shot down, 70 did not reach targets. Widespread damage across multiple regions.
POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian forces claim to have entered Piatykhatky. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
RUSSIAN STRIKE ON POLTAVA OIL DEPOT (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Potential major blow to Ukrainian logistics. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
INTENSE FIGHTING CONTINUES ACROSS MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Pokrovsk remains the hottest spot. Southern front sees heavy drone and artillery activity.
POTENTIAL RADICAL SHIFT IN US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports suggest Trump may demand Zelensky's departure and pressure Europe to negotiate Ukraine's surrender. EXTREME CAUTION AND VERIFICATION NEEDED.
CONFIRMED SECRET US-RUSSIA TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Back-channel diplomacy is ongoing in Switzerland.
POTENTIAL US ARMS SALES HALT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian sources claim direct US arms sales to Ukraine are frozen. URGENT VERIFICATION NEEDED.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The potential shift in US policy and the reported Russian advance in Zaporizhzhia are the most significant new developments.
Gather intelligence on the reported strike in Karlovka, Poltava Oblast.
Determine the extent of damage and the impact on Ukrainian fuel supplies.
Assess the implications for Ukrainian military operations in the Donetsk direction.
INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL SHIFT IN US POLICY (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Seek clarification from US sources regarding the reports of demands for Zelensky's departure and pressure on Europe.
Assess the credibility of these reports and their potential implications for US support to Ukraine.
Prepare contingency plans for various scenarios, including reduced US military aid.
CONFIRM STATUS OF US ARMS SALES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Obtain official confirmation from US sources regarding the status of direct arms sales to Ukraine.
Assess the impact of any potential halt on Ukrainian military capabilities.
MAINTAIN HIGH ALERT AND DEFENSIVE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Continue to monitor enemy activity across all fronts.
Maintain air defense readiness in response to ongoing drone and missile threats.
Reinforce defensive positions in key areas, particularly in Zaporizhzhia and Poltava Oblasts.
CONTINUE INVESTIGATION OF THE KALUGA FIRE (MEDIUM PRIORITY):
Verify the cause of the fire and the damage.
Check for connection to sabotage.
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The new information adds significant urgency to existing priorities and introduces new areas of concern.
The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY VOLATILE. The potential SHIFT IN US POLICY, coupled with REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES and CONTINUED INTENSE FIGHTING, creates a HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND POTENTIALLY CRITICAL SITUATION. IMMEDIATE ACTION is required to verify key developments, assess the evolving threat, and adjust strategies accordingly.
