Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 05:24 UTC

Changes and New Information (04:54 UTC - 05:24 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN FORCES CAPTURE GRIGOROVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • WarGonzo (05:03 UTC) published a video showing Russian troops with flags in Grigorovka, near Chasiv Yar.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS the MAJOR RUSSIAN ADVANCE reported earlier and is a SIGNIFICANT SETBACK for Ukrainian forces. The video shows extensive damage, indicating intense fighting.

2. RUSSIAN ADVANCES CONFIRMED NEAR KONSTANTINOPOL, ANDREEVKA, ULAKLY (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, MAP):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (05:05 UTC) published maps showing Russian advances south of Dachnoye, in the "Kurakhovsky pocket" near Konstantinopol, and near Andreevka and Ulakly.
   • Assessment: These reports, along with WarGonzo's summary (05:09 UTC) of advances near Novoselka, Novoocheretovate, and west of Andreevka, indicate CONTINUED RUSSIAN PRESSURE and GAINS on multiple fronts in the Donetsk region.

3. UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROY RUSSIAN DRONE NEAR POLOGI (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (04:59 UTC) published a video showing a Ukrainian drone being shot down near Pologi, Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
   • Assessment: This demonstrates continued drone activity in the area and successful Russian air defense actions against a Ukrainian drone.

4. RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • Colonelcassad (05:08 UTC) publishes footage of a Russian strike.
   • Assessment: Confirms drone operations and an attack in the region.

5. RUSSIAN OPERATIONS NEAR KURILOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):

   • Дневник Десантника🇷🇺* (05:16 UTC) reports Russian troops fighting in the area, pushing Ukrainian forces out.
   • Assessment: The enemy has increased presence in the region.

6. UKRAINIAN CASUALTIES IN GULYAIPOLE, BELENKOYE (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • 🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (05:10 UTC) reported one death in Gulyaipole and one wounded in Belenkoye due to Russian attacks. A total of 588 strikes were reported on 12 settlements in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, including 22 airstrikes, 329 drone attacks, 8 MLRS attacks, and 229 artillery strikes.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS INTENSE RUSSIAN BOMBARDMENT across Zaporizhzhia Oblast, resulting in casualties and damage. The HIGH NUMBER OF STRIKES indicates a SUSTAINED CAMPAIGN to weaken Ukrainian defenses and disrupt civilian life.

7. NO RUSSIAN SHIPS IN BLACK OR AZOV SEAS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (04:57 UTC) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (04:57 UTC) both reported no Russian warships in the Black or Azov Seas. The General Staff also noted 4 Russian ships in the Mediterranean, with 3 carrying a total of 26 "Kalibr" missiles. No Russian ships transited the Kerch Strait.
   • Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. The ABSENCE OF RUSSIAN NAVAL PRESENCE in the Black and Azov Seas may indicate a shift in strategy, a redeployment, or logistical issues. However, the presence of "Kalibr"-armed ships in the Mediterranean MAINTAINS A LONG-RANGE STRIKE THREAT.

8. UKRAINIAN LOSS CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • Оперативний ЗСУ (05:14 UTC) and РБК-Україна (05:15 UTC) published infographics claiming significant Russian losses, including 1280 personnel, 12 tanks, 18 armored fighting vehicles, 52 artillery systems, 4 MLRS, and 2 air defense systems in the past day.
   • Assessment: These claims are LIKELY INFLATED FOR PROPAGANDA PURPOSES, but they do reflect the ongoing intensity of the conflict and suggest significant fighting. INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION IS IMPOSSIBLE.

9. RUSSIAN SABOTEURS SENTENCED (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, VIDEO):

   • ТАСС (05:13 UTC) published a video showing the sentencing of eight Russians for sabotage.
   • Assessment: This reinforces earlier reports of a crackdown on sabotage activities.

10. POSSIBLE TRUMP-PUTIN MEETING DISCUSSED (REPORTED):

• РБК-Україна (05:11 UTC) reports US and Russian officials having met to talk.
• Assessment: Indicates efforts to reduce tensions.

11. NEW COVID STRAIN (LOW PRIORITY):

    • ТАСС (05:23 UTC) states a new COVID strain has been discovered.
    • Assessment: Has no apparent impact on the military situation.

Updated Situation Summary

• RUSSIAN FORCES CAPTURE GRIGOROVKA, ADVANCE ON MULTIPLE FRONTS (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The capture of Grigorovka is a MAJOR RUSSIAN VICTORY and a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to Ukrainian defenses near Chasiv Yar. Russian forces are also making gains near Konstantinopol, Andreevka, Ulakly, Novoselka, and Novoocheretovate, indicating WIDESPREAD OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS in the Donetsk region.
• INTENSE RUSSIAN BOMBARDMENT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Heavy Russian strikes continue across Zaporizhzhia Oblast, causing casualties and damage.
• NO RUSSIAN NAVAL PRESENCE IN BLACK OR AZOV SEAS, "KALIBR" THREAT REMAINS IN MEDITERRANEAN (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This is a notable development, but the "Kalibr" missile threat persists.
• HIGH CASUALTY CLAIMS BY BOTH SIDES (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Both sides are reporting high casualties, reflecting the intensity of the fighting, but specific figures are likely inflated.
• CONTINUED FIGHTING IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Russian paratroopers are fighting Ukrainian forces.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

Updated Recommendations

1. RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN DONETSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Reinforce Ukrainian defenses near Chasiv Yar and other threatened areas.
   • Launch counterattacks where possible to regain lost ground and disrupt Russian momentum.
   • Utilize all available intelligence assets to monitor Russian movements and intentions.

2. MITIGATE RUSSIAN BOMBARDMENT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Strengthen air defenses in the region to intercept incoming drones and missiles.
   • Provide humanitarian aid to affected civilians.
   • Document war crimes for future accountability.

3. MONITOR RUSSIAN NAVAL ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain surveillance of the Mediterranean Sea to track "Kalibr"-armed ships.
   • Assess the reasons for the absence of Russian ships in the Black and Azov Seas.

4. VERIFY CASUALTY CLAIMS (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Use all available intelligence sources to assess the accuracy of casualty claims.
   • Adjust tactics and strategies based on verified information.

5. ADDRESS US-UKRAINE TENSIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Seek clarification on Rubio's statement about Zelensky.
   • Reaffirm commitment to cooperation with the US.

6. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Debunk false information, particularly inflated casualty claims.
   • Emphasize Ukrainian successes, such as the destruction of Russian equipment.

7. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation is CRITICAL. The RUSSIAN CAPTURE OF GRIGOROVKA and ADVANCES ON MULTIPLE FRONTS represent a SERIOUS THREAT to Ukrainian forces. The INTENSE BOMBARDMENT OF ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST is causing SIGNIFICANT HUMANITARIAN CONCERNS. The ABSENCE OF RUSSIAN NAVAL PRESENCE in the Black and Azov Seas is NOTABLE, but the MEDITERRANEAN THREAT REMAINS. IMMEDIATE AND DECISIVE ACTION is required to stabilize the situation and prevent further Russian gains.