Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 21, 2025, 03:24 UTC

Changes and New Information (02:54 UTC - 03:24 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (03:01 UTC) reports, citing Vladimir Rogov, that Russian forces have taken control of half of the village of Piatykhatky in the Zaporizhzhia region.
   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it represents a LOCALIZED RUSSIAN GAIN, but its STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE depends on the village's location and role in Ukrainian defenses. It indicates CONTINUED RUSSIAN EFFORTS to PUSH FORWARD in the Zaporizhzhia region.

2. RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK ON UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATORS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (03:11 UTC) posted a video showing a Russian hexacopter dropping explosives on what are claimed to be positions of Ukrainian drone operators in the Sumy region.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of RUSSIAN EFFORTS TO TARGET UKRAINIAN DRONE OPERATIONS. The use of a HEAVY HEXACOPTER capable of carrying multiple munitions suggests a DEDICATED COUNTER-DRONE CAPABILITY. The video's authenticity and the EXTENT OF DAMAGE require INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION.

3. STARLING USE BY UKRAINIANS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (03:11 UTC) posted a video with footage of a Starlink installation.
   • Assessment: The video suggests a STRATEGIC EFFORT to target communication and information sharing capabilities, aiming to disrupt the enemy's operational coordination.

4. UKRAINIAN ADVANCE NEAR POKROVSK, RUSSIAN PRESSURE ON TWO FRONTS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • РБК-Україна (03:16 UTC) cites an ISW report indicating Ukrainian advances near Pokrovsk, while also noting Russian pressure near Velyka Novosilka and in the Pokrovsk direction itself. Multiple map images are provided.
   • Assessment: This suggests a DYNAMIC AND CONTESTED SITUATION in the Donetsk region. The CONFLICTING CLAIMS of UKRAINIAN ADVANCES and RUSSIAN PRESSURE highlight the FLUIDITY OF THE FRONTLINE. The ISW maps require CAREFUL ANALYSIS to DETERMINE THE EXTENT of any territorial changes. The reported Russian pressure near Velyka Novosilka is CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS REPORTS.

5. STARMMER'S PEACE PLAN (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (03:11 UTC) reported about Starmmer's peace plan, according to The Telegraph.
   • Assessment: It is important to VERIFY if The Telegraph reported it, and also to see the reaction of the US.

Updated Situation Summary

• BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK ON ODESA/ZATOKA (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The immediate threat has passed, but vigilance remains crucial. DAMAGE ASSESSMENT AND RECOVERY EFFORTS are ONGOING.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Claimed capture of half of Piatykhatky. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN FOCUS ON COUNTER-DRONE OPERATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reported attacks on Ukrainian drone operators in Sumy region. REINFORCES PREVIOUS TREND.
• DYNAMIC SITUATION IN DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Conflicting reports of Ukrainian advances near Pokrovsk and Russian pressure in multiple areas. HIGHLIGHTS THE FLUIDITY OF THE FRONTLINE.
• RUSSIAN DRONE CONTROL CENTER DESTRUCTION (CONFIRMED): The reports indicate Russian efforts of targeting drone control.
• SUSTAINED AND WIDESPREAD RUSSIAN DRONE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Continues across multiple regions, with confirmed movement from Poltava to Cherkasy. REMAINS THE MOST IMMEDIATE THREAT. The attack APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING AND EVOLVING.
• RUSSIAN DRONE STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN ARMORED VEHICLE (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): PLAUSIBLE claim of a successful drone attack, highlighting the CONSTANT THREAT to Ukrainian vehicles.
• RUSSIAN 132ND BRIGADE SUFFERS HEAVY LOSSES, REINFORCED WITH POORLY TRAINED TROOPS (HIGH PRIORITY): POTENTIAL VULNERABILITY in Russian forces near Toretsk.
• CRIMEA ANTICIPATES LARGE-SCALE ATTACKS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): POTENTIAL IMMINENT ESCALATION.
• ELON MUSK'S CRITICISM OF ZELENSKY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): REMAINS A MAJOR INFORMATION WARFARE CONCERN.
• RUSSIAN COUNTER-DISINFORMATION CAMPAIGN (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Actively attempting to discredit Ukrainian claims and promote a narrative of Russian dominance.
• REPORTED EXPLOSIONS ON TANKERS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): POTENTIAL ESCALATION, requiring urgent investigation.
• ALLEGED TORTURE OF RUSSIAN POWS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): SERIOUS ALLEGATION, requires independent verification. POTENTIAL WAR CRIME.
• RUSSIAN MINING OPERATIONS DISRUPT UKRAINIAN ROTATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN SUCCESS, requires independent verification.
• TRUMP'S ECONOMIC THREATS TO BRICS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): INDIRECT IMPLICATIONS for the conflict.
• FRENCH MERCENARIES ALLEGEDLY REFUSE EVACUATION (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): LIKELY PROPAGANDA.
• RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AGAINST IPHONES (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED): STANDARD PROPAGANDA TACTIC.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. MAINTAIN MAXIMUM ALERT: AIR DEFENSE READINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • While the immediate ballistic missile threat has passed, MAINTAIN HIGH READINESS of air defense systems across ALL OF SOUTHERN UKRAINE.
   • Continue monitoring for potential missile launches from the south.

2. INVESTIGATE AND RESPOND TO BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):

   • Continue damage assessment and recovery efforts in Odesa/Zatoka.
   • Gather intelligence on LAUNCH LOCATIONS and TARGETED INFRASTRUCTURE.

3. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claimed capture of half of Piatykhatky.
   • Assess the strategic significance of this village, if the claim is confirmed.
   • Prepare for potential Ukrainian counter-actions if necessary.

4. ANALYZE ISW MAPS AND REPORTS ON DONETSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Carefully analyze the ISW maps provided by РБК-Україна to DETERMINE THE EXTENT of any reported Ukrainian advances near Pokrovsk and Russian pressure near Velyka Novosilka and Pokrovsk.
   • Cross-reference the maps with other intelligence sources to VALIDATE THE INFORMATION.
   • Assess the implications of any confirmed territorial changes for UKRAINIAN DEFENSIVE POSITIONS and RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAPABILITIES.

5. COUNTER RUSSIAN DRONE THREAT (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Maintain efforts to counter Russian drone operations, including TARGETING DRONE OPERATORS AND LAUNCH SITES.
   • Develop and deploy counter-drone technologies to PROTECT UKRAINIAN FORCES AND INFRASTRUCTURE.

6. MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The BALLISTIC MISSILE ATTACK ON ODESA/ZATOKA, while seemingly over for now, HIGHLIGHTS THE ONGOING THREAT. The REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN ZAPORIZHZHIA and the CONFLICTING REPORTS OF ADVANCES AND PRESSURE IN THE DONETSK REGION require IMMEDIATE INVESTIGATION AND ANALYSIS. CONTINUOUS MONITORING, RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND ADAPTIVE STRATEGIES are ESSENTIAL.