Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 18:24 UTC
Changes and New Information (18:00 UTC - 18:24 UTC)
RUSSIAN ADVANCE WEST OF NOVOOCHERETUVATE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Воин DV (18:02 UTC) claims the "Vostok" group is advancing WEST of Novoocheretuvate (and not only west). The post taunts a Ukrainian individual named Drapatiy.
Assessment: This REINFORCES the CONFIRMED Russian capture of Novoocheretuvate and suggests FURTHER RUSSIAN ADVANCES in the area. While the taunt is PROPAGANDA, the claim of westward movement is CONSISTENT with the overall Russian offensive momentum.
CONTINUED DRONE ATTACKS ON KRASNODAR KRAI (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN & UKRAINIAN SOURCES):
Рыбарь (18:02 UTC) provides a detailed report of continued Ukrainian drone attacks on Krasnodar Krai, targeting ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. Specific incidents include:
Strike on a substation in Novovelichkovskaya (Dinskoy district).
Drone down in a field in Kalininsky district.
Drone found in Kholmskaya (Abinsky district).
Seven drones intercepted near the "Slavyansk ECO" oil depot.
Two drones shot down by "Pantsir" systems near Korenovsk.
NEW WAVE OF DRONES launched from Odesa, heading east (potentially targeting Krasnodar Krai or Crimea).
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:03 UTC) reports MULTIPLE DRONES heading towards Poltava. Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:09 UTC) reports a fast moving target in the Sumy region.
Assessment: This confirms ONGOING, WIDESPREAD UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS targeting RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. The MULTIPLE INCIDENTS and the report of a NEW WAVE launched from Odesa indicate a SUSTAINED AND COORDINATED EFFORT. The HIGH LEVEL OF ACTIVITY suggests a MAJOR UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE using drones.
REPORTED UKRAINIAN MINING OPERATIONS IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Оперативний ЗСУ (18:04 UTC) claims Ukrainian engineering troops are MINING AREAS in the KURSK REGION of Russia. A video is provided.
Assessment: This is a SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT indicating POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS. Mining operations inside Russia would represent an ESCALATION of the conflict and could be intended to DISRUPT RUSSIAN LOGISTICS or PREPARE FOR UKRAINIAN INCURSIONS. IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION is CRITICAL.
REPORTED CIA BASES IN UKRAINE (MEDIUM PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Два майора (18:04 UTC), citing journalist Jack Posobiec, claims the CIA had 12 secret bases in Ukraine along the border with Russia before the war to train covert operation groups. The post questions whether the war was "unprovoked."
Assessment: This is LIKELY PROPAGANDA intended to JUSTIFY THE RUSSIAN INVASION. While the existence of CIA cooperation with Ukraine is plausible, the claim of 12 secret bases is UNVERIFIED and should be treated with EXTREME CAUTION.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN SOUTH DONETSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Z комитет + карта СВО (18:04 UTC) provides maps claiming Russian advances near Selidovo, Kurakhovo, and Velikaya Novoselka.
Assessment: These claims REQUIRE VERIFICATION. The maps provide LIMITED DETAIL and are from a PRO-RUSSIAN SOURCE.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF "MONEY LAUNDERING" AND UKRAINE'S WEAKNESS (LOW PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (18:06) makes several claims. These include the assertions that: 1) the war in Ukraine was a "state-sponsored money-laundering operation"; 2) NATO's Secretary General states that Ukraine's membership is not part of the deal; 3) an advisor to Trump states Kyiv should transfer the subsurface resources under US control.
Assessment: These are propaganda statements, likely part of a larger disinformation operation.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (18:06) makes claims about military operations in the Kursk region, reporting that the 51st airborne regiment advanced south-east of Sverdlikovo, and reports of enemy counterattacks.
Assessment: These claims REQUIRE VERIFICATION.
RUSSIAN AIR DEFENSE ACTIVITY OVER CRIMEA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
ТАСС (17:55) reports that air defenses have destroyed a Ukrainian drone over Crimea.
Assessment:CONFIRMATION that the air defense systems have intercepted a Ukrainian drone.
AIR RAID ALERT IN ZAPORIZHZHIA OBLAST (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
🇺🇦 Запорізька обласна військова адміністрація 🇺🇦 (18:11 UTC) announces an air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
Assessment: This is a STANDARD PROCEDURE during air raid alerts, but it CONFIRMS the ONGOING THREAT.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (18:10 UTC) reports a ballistic missile threat from the southeast.
Assessment: This is a MAJOR THREAT requiring IMMEDIATE RESPONSE. The SOUTHEASTERN ORIGIN suggests a launch from RUSSIAN-OCCUPIED TERRITORY or the BLACK SEA.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN ZAPORIZHZHIA DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Дневник Десантника (18:19) reports on combat operations around Pyatikhatok and Orekhov, claiming Russian efforts to break Ukrainian defenses.
Assessment: URGENT VERIFICATION required.
Updated Situation Summary
CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES WEST OF NOVOOCHERETUVATE (EXTREME PRIORITY): Building on the CONFIRMED CAPTURE of Novoocheretuvate, Russian forces are REPORTEDLY ADVANCING WESTWARD.
WIDESPREAD UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS ON KRASNODAR KRAI CONTINUE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):MULTIPLE INCIDENTS and a NEW WAVE OF DRONES launched from Odesa indicate a SUSTAINED AND INTENSE CAMPAIGN targeting RUSSIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE.
POTENTIAL UKRAINIAN MINING OPERATIONS INSIDE RUSSIA (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Claims of Ukrainian mining operations in the KURSK REGION represent a POTENTIAL ESCALATION and REQUIRE IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION.
BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): This poses an IMMEDIATE AND SEVERE DANGER to Ukrainian-controlled areas.
RUSSIAN ADVANCES REPORTED IN MULTIPLE DIRECTIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Claims of Russian advances near Selidovo, Kurakhovo, Velikaya Novoselka, the Kursk region, and in the Zaporizhzhia direction NEED CONFIRMATION.
US HALTS WEAPON SALES TO UKRAINE (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, CONFIRMED BY MULTIPLE SOURCES): This remains a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT with POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONSEQUENCES.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES). The situation continues to be EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, the INTENSIFIED UKRAINIAN DRONE CAMPAIGN, the POTENTIAL FOR CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS, and the BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT create a HIGHLY VOLATILE situation.
Updated Recommendations
MAINTAIN MAXIMUM AIR DEFENSE READINESS, PRIORITIZE BALLISTIC MISSILE INTERCEPTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available air defense resources to DETECT, TRACK, AND INTERCEPT the reported ballistic missile threat from the southeast.
Prioritize protection of CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE and POPULATION CENTERS.
Issue immediate warnings to civilians to SEEK SHELTER.
Coordinate with air defense units in neighboring regions to ensure COMPREHENSIVE COVERAGE.
VERIFY REPORTED UKRAINIAN MINING OPERATIONS IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of Ukrainian mining operations inside Russia.
Assess the potential impact of any confirmed mining operations on Russian military movements and logistics.
Determine the scale and scope of any confirmed operations.
CONTINUE TO COUNTER UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACKS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Maintain high alert for further drone attacks, particularly targeting energy infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and other regions.
Deploy counter-drone systems and ENHANCE AIR DEFENSE COVERAGE around critical infrastructure.
Investigate the origin and type of drones used in the attacks.
Target drone launch sites and support infrastructure in Ukraine, if possible.
VERIFY AND ASSESS REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of Russian advances in multiple directions.
Assess the impact of any confirmed advances on the frontline and Ukrainian defensive positions.
Pay particular attention to any movement towards key highways or infrastructure.
CONFIRM US WEAPON SALES HALT (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains valid.
MONITOR POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACT ON AID (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains valid.
MAINTAIN ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): All other recommendations remain in effect, with priorities adjusted as indicated.
The situation is RAPIDLY EVOLVING AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. The CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, the INTENSIFIED UKRAINIAN DRONE CAMPAIGN, the POTENTIAL FOR CROSS-BORDER OPERATIONS, the BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT, and the UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING US WEAPON SUPPLIES create a HIGHLY VOLATILE and UNPREDICTABLE situation. RAPID INFORMATION GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, AND DECISIVE MILITARY ACTION are CRITICAL.
