Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 14:37 UTC
Changes and New Information (14:07 UTC - 14:37 UTC)
RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS REPULSED INCURSION IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
MoD Russia (14:10 UTC) reports that Putin spoke on the phone with commanding officers from the 810th naval infantry brigade and 56th regiment, thanking them for accomplishing their assigned missions related to an "enemy incursion" in the Kursk region.
Assessment: This REINFORCES previous reports of fighting in the Kursk/Sumy region and adds a layer of OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION from the HIGHEST LEVEL of the Russian government. While likely propagandistic, this elevates the seriousness of the situation and requires IMMEDIATE VERIFICATION. This FURTHER CONFLICTS with Ukrainian reports of a RUSSIAN incursion.
Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (14:18 UTC) reports 59 combat engagements across the front since the beginning of the day. Key locations and events include:
Artillery shelling from Russian territory targeting Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv regions.
Airstrikes in Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions.
Kharkiv Direction: Three Russian attempts to attack Ukrainian positions near Vovchansk and Zapadne, one engagement ongoing.
Kupyansk Direction: Two ongoing Russian attacks near Zahryzove.
Lyman Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled an attack near Yampolivka.
Siversk Direction: Two unsuccessful Russian attacks near Bilohorivka.
Kramatorsk Direction: Two Russian attempts to advance near Chasiv Yar and Vasyukivka, one engagement ongoing.
Toretsk Direction: Five Russian attacks near Toretsk, one repelled, four ongoing.
Pokrovsk Direction: 14 engagements near multiple settlements, one ongoing.
Novopavlivske Direction: Ten Russian attacks near multiple settlements, eight ongoing.
Huliaipole Direction: Three Russian attacks near Novopil and Novoselka, one ongoing.
Orikhiv Direction: Three Russian attempts to advance near Novoandriivka and Stepove, two ongoing.
Prydniprovske Direction: No active Russian offensive actions reported.
Kursk region: REINFORCES Ukrainian forces are repelling three Russian attacks, with 14 combat engagements total. Eight airstrikes with 10 guided bombs and 201 artillery shellings reported.
Assessment: This COMPREHENSIVE REPORT confirms WIDESPREAD FIGHTING across the entire front. The HIGH NUMBER OF ENGAGEMENTS (59) suggests INTENSE FIGHTING. The report highlights MULTIPLE HOTSPOTS, including the ongoing situation in the KURSK REGION.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN LEOPARD TANK IN SUMY REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
ТАСС (14:36) claims Russian forces from the "Tiger" unit destroyed a Ukrainian Leopard tank with a drone strike.
Assessment: Video evidence is presented. This FURTHER REINFORCES the reports of INTENSE FIGHTING IN THE SUMY REGION and requires URGENT VERIFICATION.
UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING RUSSIAN VEHICLES IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, UKRAINIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):
STERNENKO (14:20 UTC) claims Ukrainian forces (156th Territorial Defense Brigade) destroyed two Russian "Bukhanka" vans and damaged a tank with drones in the Kursk region.
Assessment: Video evidence is presented. This FURTHER SUPPORTS reports of UKRAINIAN ACTIVITY WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY and adds SPECIFICITY to the types of equipment destroyed. This needs to be compared with Russian claims.
REPORT OF FIGHTING NEAR SUDZHA (KURSK OBLAST) (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED):
Сливочный каприз (14:23) reports active fighting near Sudzha, in the Kursk region. Claims a Russian attack on Ukrainian positions near Kucherov, and subsequent retreat.
CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE ON COMPRESSOR STATION (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REQUIRES VERIFICATION):
Дневник Десантника🇷🇺 (14:27 UTC) claims an Iskander-M and cruise missile strike destroyed a gas compressor station in Glazunovka, Kharkiv region, causing a gas leak, explosion, and fire.
Assessment: This represents a SIGNIFICANT ATTACK ON CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE if confirmed. It has implications for gas supply to western Ukraine and potentially to European customers. URGENT VERIFICATION REQUIRED.
БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (14:29) reports a Ukrainian attempt to break through Russian positions using a Bradley IFV. The Bradley reportedly survived an anti-tank weapon hit, allowing troops to retreat safely.
Assessment: Video evidence is presented. This highlights the RESILIENCE OF WESTERN-SUPPLIED EQUIPMENT and UKRAINIAN TACTICAL ADAPTATIONS.
REPORT OF RUSSIAN ADVANCE NEAR HRYHORIVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE):
Colonelcassad (14:31) reports the Russian advance in Hryhorivka.
RUSSIAN DRONE NET VIDEO (MEDIUM PRIORITY, RUSSIAN SOURCE, REPORTED):
Воин DV (14:33) showcases a net launching device used to intercept drones.
КіберБорошно | CyberBoroshno (14:26) reports that after an attack on January 29 2025, the catalytic cracking unit columns in Nizhny Novgorod were destroyed.
Updated Situation Summary
INTENSE FIGHTING IN KURSK/SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFLICTING REPORTS, PARTIALLY CONFIRMED): This remains the MOST CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT. Conflicting reports of incursions, combined with both Russian and Ukrainian claims of destroying equipment and Putin's acknowledgment, indicate a MAJOR ESCALATION in this area. URGENT VERIFICATION of the exact nature and scale of the fighting is paramount.
WIDESPREAD FIGHTING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FRONT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): The Ukrainian General Staff report confirms INTENSE FIGHTING across multiple directions, with a HIGH NUMBER OF ENGAGEMENTS.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING UKRAINIAN EQUIPMENT, INCLUDING LEOPARD TANK (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): These claims, if confirmed, would represent SIGNIFICANT UKRAINIAN LOSSES.
UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF DESTROYING RUSSIAN EQUIPMENT, INCLUDING WITHIN RUSSIAN TERRITORY (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): These claims, if confirmed, indicate UKRAINIAN CAPABILITY TO STRIKE INSIDE RUSSIA and SUCCESSFUL USE OF DRONE WARFARE.
POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ATTACK ON CRITICAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): The reported strike on the gas compressor station, if confirmed, would have SERIOUS IMPLICATIONS for Ukrainian and potentially European energy security.
ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT. The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, RAPIDLY EVOLVING, AND HIGHLY VOLATILE.
Updated Recommendations
URGENTLY VERIFY AND DETERMINE THE SCALE OF FIGHTING IN KURSK/SUMY REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Deploy all available intelligence assets (satellite imagery, drone reconnaissance, human intelligence) to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reports of incursions and identify the EXACT LOCATION, SCALE, AND NATURE of the fighting.
Prioritize identifying the units involved on both sides.
Assess the extent of any Russian territorial gains or Ukrainian incursions into Russia.
Prepare for potential further escalation and REINFORCE DEFENSIVE POSITIONS along the border.
Verify the claims of Сливочный каприз (14:23).
VERIFY RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN CLAIMS OF EQUIPMENT DESTRUCTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Analyze available video and imagery evidence to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the claims of destroyed Leopard tanks, "Bukhanka" vans, and other equipment.
Use all available intelligence sources to cross-reference the claims and assess their accuracy.
Prioritize air defense and counter-battery fire in areas where enemy equipment is confirmed.
VERIFY REPORT OF RUSSIAN STRIKE ON GAS COMPRESSOR STATION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
Use all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE the reported strike on the gas compressor station in Glazunovka.
Assess the extent of the damage and its impact on gas supply.
Prepare for potential disruptions to gas supply and consider alternative energy sources.
MONITOR AND RESPOND TO WIDESPREAD FIGHTING ACROSS THE FRONT (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):
Maintain continuous surveillance of all reported areas of engagement.
Prioritize air defense and counter-battery fire in areas under attack.
Prepare for potential Russian offensives in multiple directions.
Reinforce defensive positions where necessary.
Assess the reports from Colonelcassad (14:31).
EXPLOIT UKRAINIAN SUCCESSES AGAINST RUSSIAN FORCES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):
Gather further intelligence on Russian tactics and vulnerabilities revealed during engagements.
Disseminate lessons learned to other Ukrainian units.
Assess the reports from БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС (14:29)
ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).
The situation is characterized by INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD FIGHTING, with a MAJOR ESCALATION in the KURSK/SUMY REGION. URGENT VERIFICATION of conflicting reports and RAPID RESPONSE to emerging threats are ESSENTIAL. The POTENTIAL ATTACK ON CRITICAL GAS INFRASTRUCTURE adds another layer of SERIOUS CONCERN.
