Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 13:37 UTC

Changes and New Information (13:07 UTC - 13:37 UTC)

1. UKRAINIAN FORCES SHOOT DOWN RUSSIAN DRONES OVER ODESSA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:10:20 UTC) reports Ukrainian maritime guard forces shot down four Shahed drones over Odesa overnight, using small arms and anti-aircraft systems. CONFIRMS continued Russian drone attacks and Ukrainian air defense activity. VIDEO EVIDENCE.
2. US OPPOSES CALLING RUSSIA "AGGRESSOR" IN G7 STATEMENT (CONFIRMED, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Alex Parker Returns (13:09:44 UTC), Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (13:12:18 UTC), ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (13:13:06 UTC), and РБК-Україна (13:16:33 UTC) all report the US is opposing the use of the term "aggressor" to describe Russia in a G7 statement. SIGNIFICANT DIPLOMATIC DEVELOPMENT, indicating a potential shift in US policy or a desire to maintain some level of dialogue with Russia. CONFLICTS with previous G7 statements.
3. KHARKIV REGIONAL COUNCIL SUPPORTS ZELENSKY (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Олег Синєгубов, голова Харківської ОДА (13:10:24 UTC) reports the Kharkiv Regional Council voted 76 in favor of supporting President Zelensky, emphasizing the message "Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine." POLITICAL SOLIDARITY and a REJECTION OF EXTERNAL NEGOTIATIONS excluding Ukraine.
4. PUTIN SPEAKS WITH COMMANDERS IN KURSK REGION (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): ТАСС (13:15:21, 13:16:21 UTC) reports Putin spoke with commanders of the 810th Marine Brigade and the 56th Regiment about the situation in the Kursk region, thanking them for their actions. INDICATES HIGH-LEVEL ATTENTION to the situation on the border.
5. TRUMP'S STATEMENT ON RUSSIA (REPEATED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Alex Parker Returns (13:15:49) reiterates Trump's statement, claiming that the main asset is Trump. POLITICAL INFLUENCE.
6. UKRAINIAN F-16 (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): Operativnyi ZSU (13:20:28) claim Ukrainian forces have an F-16. PROPAGANDA AND WISHFUL THINKING, extremely unlikely.
7. RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KUPYANSK DIRECTION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Дневник Десантника (13:33:11 UTC) reports Russian forces advanced 700 meters south of Lozova in the Kupyansk direction, supported by armored vehicles. They claim to be expanding their bridgehead along the Oskol River and disrupting Ukrainian forces. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
8. RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON ZAGRYZOVO (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Дневник Десантника (13:33:11 UTC) reports a Russian artillery strike on a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in the northwestern part of Zagryzovo. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
9. RUSSIAN FORCES IN GRIGOROVKA (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): Воин DV (13:34:34 UTC) shows video footage of Russian forces in Grigorovka, near Chasiv Yar. CONFIRMS Russian presence in the settlement. VIDEO EVIDENCE.
10. KREMLIN SURPRISED BY TRUMP'S COMMENTS (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE): РБК-Україна (13:35:14) reports, citing Bloomberg, that the Kremlin was surprised by the tone of Trump's comments. POLITICAL ACTIVITY.

Updated Situation Summary

• POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS DNIEPER RIVER (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains unchanged.
• INTENSE FIGHTING AROUND CHASIV YAR (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFLICTING REPORTS): Russian sources are claiming gains in and around Chasiv Yar, including the capture of Grygorivka and a refractory plant, as well as further advances towards Mayyske. CONFIRMATION CRUCIAL.
• RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA, SUMY OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains unchanged.
• RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Remains unchanged.
• CONTINUED UKRAINIAN MILITARY TRAINING (CONFIRMED): Remains unchanged.
• BALLISTIC MISSILE THREAT LIFTED, BUT TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY REMAINS (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.
• RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KONSTANTINOVKA AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains unchanged.
• BUDANOV PREDICTS CEASEFIRE: Remains unchanged.
• CONTINUED UKRAINIAN DRONE ACTIVITY: Confirmed, with further evidence of Ukrainian air defenses shooting down Russian drones over Odesa.
• POTENTIAL FORGED CONTRACTS IN RUSSIAN MILITARY: Remains unchanged.
• SHIFT IN US DIPLOMATIC STANCE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple sources confirm the US is objecting to calling Russia an "aggressor" in a G7 statement. This MAJOR DEVELOPMENT suggests a potential shift in US policy.
• PUTIN'S FOCUS ON PROTECTING "SPECIAL OPERATION" PARTICIPANTS: Remains unchanged.
• RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS OF REPULSED UKRAINIAN INCURSION (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Remains unchanged.
• GERMAN CHANCELLOR REAFFIRMS SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE (CONFIRMED): Remains unchanged.
• UKRAINIAN EFFORTS TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE COMMUNICATION METHODS (REPORTED): Remains unchanged.
• TRUMP'S STATEMENTS ON NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, POLITICAL): Remains unchanged.
• RUSSIAN MoD DENIAL OF UKRAINIAN INCURSION PREPARATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Remains unchanged.
• RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN DRONE STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): Multiple reports, with CONFIRMED Ukrainian successes against Russian drones.
• FIGHTING IN VELIKA NOVOSYOLKA AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Remains unchanged.
• SPANISH AND FRENCH DIPLOMATIC VISITS TO KYIV AND WASHINGTON (HIGH PRIORITY, DIPLOMATIC): Remains unchanged.
• INTENSE URBAN COMBAT IN TORETSK AREA: Remains unchanged.
• SBU DETENTION OF ASSASSINATION PLOTTERS (HIGH PRIORITY, INTERNAL SECURITY): Remains unchanged.
• CLAIMS OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS FORCIBLY CONSCRIPTING CIVILIANS: Remains unchanged.
• REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKES ON ODESSA SUBSTATION (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Remains unchanged.
• RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KUPYANSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): New reports suggest Russian advances and continued efforts to expand their bridgehead. REQUIRES VERIFICATION.
• PUTIN'S INVOLVEMENT IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Putin's direct communication with commanders indicates the HIGH IMPORTANCE of the situation on the border.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT. The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS POTENTIAL RUSSIAN DNIEPER RIVER CROSSING (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains unchanged.

2. URGENTLY VERIFY AND RESPOND TO SITUATION AROUND CHASIV YAR (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains unchanged.

3. VERIFY RUSSIAN STRIKE ON BARANOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains unchanged.

4. ADDRESS RUSSIAN ARTILLERY STRIKE ON NIKOPOL (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains unchanged.

5. CONTINUE MONITORING RUSSIAN TACTICAL AVIATION ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): Remains unchanged.

6. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKES IN KONSTANTINOVKA AREA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains unchanged.

7. ANALYZE BUDANOV'S CEASEFIRE PREDICTION (MEDIUM PRIORITY, ONGOING): Remains unchanged.

8. INVESTIGATE REPORTS OF FORGED CONTRACTS IN RUSSIAN MILITARY (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

9. CLARIFY US POSITION ON UN RESOLUTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently seek clarification from US diplomatic sources regarding their stance on the UN resolution and the G7 statement.
   • Assess the potential implications of this MAJOR SHIFT in US policy. THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT international support for Ukraine and the future of the conflict.
   • Develop strategies to mitigate potential negative consequences, such as reduced US support or a weakening of the international coalition against Russia.
   • Engage with other G7 members to MAINTAIN A UNIFIED FRONT and COUNTER ANY RUSSIAN EFFORTS to exploit divisions.

10. VERIFY RUSSIAN MoD CLAIMS REGARDING KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains unchanged.

11. MONITOR AND SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATIVE COMMUNICATION METHODS (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

12. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN ADVANCES NEAR VELIKA NOVOSYOLKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains unchanged.

13. ASSESS IMPLICATIONS OF TRUMP'S STATEMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, POLITICAL/MILITARY): Remains unchanged.

14. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO REPORTED DRONE STRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, ONGOING):

    • Continue to verify reports of drone strikes by both sides.
    • Prioritize air defense in areas targeted by Russian drones, particularly ODESSA.
    • Celebrate and amplify Ukrainian successes in shooting down Russian drones.

15. INVESTIGATE REPORTED ASSASSINATION PLOT (HIGH PRIORITY, INTERNAL SECURITY): Remains unchanged.

16. VERIFY REPORTED SABOTAGE OF RUSSIAN DRONE GOGGLES (MEDIUM PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

17. VERIFY REPORTED RUSSIAN STRIKES ON ODESSA SUBSTATION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains unchanged.

18. INVESTIGATE ALLEGATIONS OF FORCED CONSCRIPTION BY RUSSIAN FORCES (HIGH PRIORITY): Remains unchanged.

19. VERIFY REPORTS ON YAMPOLOVKA (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): Remains Unchanged.

20. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KUPYANSK DIRECTION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

    • Deploy all available intelligence assets to CONFIRM OR REFUTE reported Russian advances south of Lozova and their claims of expanding their bridgehead along the Oskol River.
    • Assess the threat to Ukrainian positions and supply lines. * Prepare counter-measures to halt or reverse any confirmed Russian gains.

21. MONITOR SITUATION IN KURSK REGION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): * Maintain HIGH ALERT and INCREASED SURVEILLANCE along the border with the Kursk region. * Gather intelligence on Russian troop movements and activities. * Prepare for potential incursions or provocations.

22. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE ACROSS THE DNIEPER RIVER, the INTENSE FIGHTING AROUND CHASIV YAR, and the RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN THE KUPYANSK DIRECTION are MAJOR THREATS. The CONFIRMED SHIFT IN US DIPLOMATIC STANCE regarding CALLING RUSSIA AN "AGGRESSOR" is a CRITICAL DEVELOPMENT that requires IMMEDIATE ATTENTION AND STRATEGIC ADJUSTMENT. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL. The need to VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS regarding both ADVANCES and REPELLED INCURSIONS is PARAMOUNT.