Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 09:55 UTC

Changes and New Information (09:26 UTC - 09:55 UTC)

1. DEEPENING US-UKRAINE RIFT (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (09:26:01 UTC) cites NBC News, reporting increasing tensions between the Trump administration and the Ukrainian government. Factors include Ukraine's public criticism of US-Russia dialogue, alleged Ukrainian "unrestraint" towards the Trump administration, and a failed deal on rare earth metals. The report claims a shift in Trump's attitude towards Ukraine from "loyal" to "more negative." It also mentions the successful start of restoring pre-sanction relations between the US and Russia.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of a MAJOR SHIFT in US policy. The emphasis on a FAILED RARE EARTH METALS DEAL is NEW INFORMATION and HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT. This suggests a POTENTIAL ECONOMIC DIMENSION to the US-Ukraine rift. The claim of a shift in Trump's attitude towards Ukraine, IF TRUE, has MAJOR IMPLICATIONS for continued US support. This SUPPORTS THE NARRATIVE of growing US-Russia cooperation at Ukraine's expense. HIGH PRIORITY to VERIFY the details of the rare earth metals deal and its alleged failure.

2. PESKOV ON ZELENSKY'S FALLING RATING (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (09:27:19 UTC) reports Dmitry Peskov stating that Zelensky's rating is falling, and the trend is "obvious." Peskov notes the previous US administration's desire to fight Russia "to the last Ukrainian" and its role as a "locomotive" of funding for Kyiv, but claims the approach has now changed.
   • Assessment: This is a PROPAGANDA STATEMENT aimed at UNDERMINING ZELENSKY'S AUTHORITY and HIGHLIGHTING THE SHIFT IN US POLICY. Peskov's comments support the narrative of weakening Western support for Ukraine. While Peskov frames it as a positive development, it serves Russian interests to portray Zelensky as weak and losing support.

3. UKRAINIAN ARTILLERY DEPLOYMENT IN THE NORTH (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (09:29:41 UTC) posts a video showing Ukrainian artillery units deploying for combat duty in northern Ukraine. The units are equipped with "Bohdana" self-propelled howitzers, a Ukrainian-developed system. The report claims these units have undergone "enhanced training."
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS UKRAINIAN MILITARY PREPARATIONS in the NORTHERN REGION. The emphasis on "Bohdana" howitzers HIGHLIGHTS UKRAINIAN EFFORTS to UTILIZE DOMESTICALLY PRODUCED WEAPONRY. The "enhanced training" suggests an effort to IMPROVE ARTILLERY CAPABILITIES. The location (northern Ukraine) could indicate preparations to DEFEND AGAINST POTENTIAL RUSSIAN ADVANCES from the north, including Belarus, or SUPPORT OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS towards the border.

4. PESKOV ON UKRAINE SETTLEMENT AND NATO (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (09:30:02 UTC) reports Peskov saying that there is little concrete information on a Ukrainian settlement, and that the Kremlin sees disagreements between Kyiv and the new administration in Washington. Peskov states that the deployment of NATO military personnel in Ukraine is unacceptable to Russia and expresses concern about reports of European plans to deploy troops in Ukraine. He claims the Kremlin agrees with the new US administration that a settlement should preferably be achieved through peaceful means. Peskov also criticizes the Kyiv regime for making "unacceptable statements" towards heads of other states.
   • Assessment: This is a MULTI-FACETED STATEMENT that REINFORCES SEVERAL KEY RUSSIAN NARRATIVES:
   • Downplaying the possibility of a near-term settlement, while still promoting the idea of a peaceful resolution (on Russia's terms).
   • Highlighting US-Ukraine divisions, suggesting a weakening of the relationship.
   • Strongly opposing NATO involvement in Ukraine, reinforcing a red line.
   • Criticizing Zelensky's government, portraying it as unstable and diplomatically inept.
   • Presenting Russia as favoring a peaceful resolution, despite ongoing military actions.

5. RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES CONTINUE (CONFIRMED, RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • TASS (09:40:37 UTC) reports Russian forces struck Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
   • Дневник Десантника (09:41:24) reports on strikes in the Konstantinovka area.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS CONTINUED RUSSIAN EFFORTS TO DEGRADE UKRAINIAN MILITARY CAPABILITIES AND INFRASTRUCTURE.

6. UK ARMED FORCES MINISTER TO PROPOSE DEPLOYMENT (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • ✙DeepState✙ (09:40:48 UTC) reports the UK Armed Forces Minister is to propose a deployment of European soldiers.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS A PLAN for troop DEPLOYMENTS.

Updated Situation Summary

• DEEPENING US-UKRAINE RIFT (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED/PARTIALLY CONFIRMED): New reports indicate a MAJOR DETERIORATION in US-Ukraine relations, linked to a FAILED RARE EARTH METALS DEAL and Ukrainian criticism of US-Russia dialogue. This REINFORCES THE SHIFT in US policy.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES AND AIRSTRIKES (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Confirmed and reported Russian advances in multiple areas, particularly around Donetsk.
• INTENSIFIED ATTACKS ON UKRAINIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Multiple reports confirm a renewed Russian campaign to destroy Ukrainian energy facilities, particularly gas infrastructure.
• UKRAINIAN PREPARATIONS IN THE NORTH (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Ukrainian artillery units, including those equipped with domestically produced "Bohdana" howitzers, are deploying for combat duty in northern Ukraine.
• UK ARMED FORCES MINISTER TO PROPOSE DEPLOYMENTS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Confirms a plan for troop deployments.
• RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA CONTINUES (HIGH PRIORITY): Peskov's statements reinforce key Russian narratives aimed at undermining Zelensky, highlighting US-Ukraine divisions, and opposing NATO involvement.
• ALL PREVIOUS KEY DEVELOPMENTS REMAIN RELEVANT.

Updated Recommendations

1. ADDRESS US-UKRAINE RIFT AND POTENTIAL LOSS OF SUPPORT (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Urgently seek clarification from the US government regarding the reported tensions and the status of the rare earth metals deal.
   • Engage in diplomatic efforts to REPAIR THE RELATIONSHIP and REASSERT UKRAINIAN INTERESTS.
   • Prepare contingency plans for a potential reduction or withdrawal of US support, including SEEKING ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF MILITARY AND FINANCIAL AID.

2. VERIFY AND RESPOND TO RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): All previous recommendations remain in effect.

3. STRENGTHEN DEFENSES IN NORTHERN UKRAINE (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Assess the readiness and capabilities of the deployed artillery units, including those equipped with "Bohdana" howitzers.
   • Ensure adequate supplies and logistical support for these units.
   • Coordinate with other military branches to DEVELOP A COMPREHENSIVE DEFENSE PLAN for the northern region.

4. COUNTER RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Actively counter Russian narratives about US-Ukraine divisions, Zelensky's weakness, and the inevitability of a Russian victory.
   • Promote Ukrainian successes and HIGHLIGHT THE ATROCITIES committed by Russian forces.
   • Engage with international media to DISSEMINATE ACCURATE INFORMATION and COUNTER RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION.

5. ADDRESS ATTACKS ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Increase air defense around critical energy infrastructure.
   • Implement rapid repair and recovery plans for damaged facilities.
   • Develop alternative energy sources and conservation measures.
   • Seek international assistance to bolster energy security.

6. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND DYNAMIC. The DEEPENING US-UKRAINE RIFT, CONTINUED RUSSIAN ADVANCES, INTENSIFIED ATTACKS ON ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE, and UKRAINIAN PREPARATIONS IN THE NORTH all require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION. RAPID INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, CAREFUL ANALYSIS, COORDINATED MILITARY ACTION, AND STRONG DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS are ESSENTIAL.