Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 08:55 UTC

Changes and New Information (08:26 UTC - 08:55 UTC)

1. NABIBULLINA DENIES SANCTIONS TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED):

   • ТАСС (08:27 UTC, 08:39 UTC) reports that Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank of Russia, DENIES any knowledge of negotiations regarding the lifting of sanctions against Russia. Visa and Mastercard have NOT approached the Central Bank about returning to Russia.
   • Assessment: This DIRECTLY CONTRADICTS earlier reports suggesting US-Russia talks included discussions on sanctions relief. It REINFORCES the impression that the talks, if focused on Ukraine, are NOT addressing broader economic issues. It also suggests LIMITED PROGRESS, if any, in US-Russia relations.

2. CLAIMED RUSSIAN SABOTAGE ATTEMPT IN TAVRIYSK (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Mash на Донбассе (08:22 UTC) claims a resident of Tavriysk in the Kherson region attempted to blow up the local administration building. The individual allegedly found explosives, planned the attack, but was apprehended. A 10-year prison sentence is reported.
   • Assessment: This report REQUIRES CAREFUL EVALUATION. It COULD BE genuine, indicating continued Ukrainian resistance in occupied areas. However, it COULD ALSO BE Russian propaganda designed to justify crackdowns or portray local opposition as "terrorists". The LACK OF INDEPENDENT VERIFICATION is significant.

3. CLAIMED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKE IN KHERSON (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Colonelcassad (08:22 UTC) posts a video claiming to show airstrikes on Ukrainian targets in occupied Kherson.
   • Assessment: The video needs additional analysis, because it is not clear.

4. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ABOUT UKRAINIAN ATTACK IN BRYANSK OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCES):

   • Alex Parker Returns (08:29 UTC), citing unverified sources, claims that Ukrainian forces are planning a large-scale attack across the border into Bryansk Oblast, involving over 5,000 troops and 200 armored vehicles, including Abrams tanks.
   • Assessment: This claim is HIGHLY DUBIOUS. While small-scale incursions are possible, a large-scale attack with that many troops and vehicles would be EXTREMELY DIFFICULT to conceal and prepare. The LACK OF CORROBORATING EVIDENCE from other sources, combined with the history of exaggerated claims from Alex Parker Returns, makes this claim HIGHLY UNLIKELY. It COULD BE disinformation designed to provoke a Russian response, justify escalation, or distract from other operations.

5. CLAIMED RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN FORCES IN SUMY OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Военкор Котенок (08:34 UTC) posts a video claiming to show an Iskander missile strike on a concentration of Ukrainian forces and equipment near Baranovka, Sumy Oblast, close to the border with Bryansk Oblast.
   • Assessment: The video REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it would indicate continued Russian attacks in the Sumy Oblast. The claim of a strike so close to the border, if accurate, could support the (unlikely) theory of preparing for a potential Ukrainian incursion. It needs to be CHECKED against other intelligence to confirm the location and target.

6. CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KHARKIV OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (08:33 UTC) reports ongoing positional battles on both parts of the region.
   • Claims of Ukrainian losses in the Lipetsky area include 2 DESTROYED "Leleka-100" and "Valkyrie" DRONES, 2 assault groups, 3 pickup trucks, 2 UAV control points, a satellite communication station, and another "Baba Yaga" octocopter drone. * Claims on the Volchansky area include advances of 80 METERS near the Volchya River, with Ukrainian reserves reportedly being deployed to the southern outskirts of Volchansk. * Claimed Ukrainian losses include a field artillery gun, 5 vehicles, 2 UAV control points, a satellite communication station, 2 aircraft-type UAVs, and 5 "Baba Yaga" octocopters.
   • Assessment: These claims REQUIRE VERIFICATION. The reported drone losses are SIGNIFICANT if true. The claimed advance of 80 meters, while small, suggests continued pressure on Ukrainian positions. The reported deployment of Ukrainian reserves to Volchansk INDICATES CONCERN about the situation in that area.

7. "SOLNTSEPEK" USED NEAR SUDZHA, KURSK OBLAST (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Поддубный |Z|О|V| edition (08:33 UTC) reports the use of "Solntsepek" thermobaric multiple rocket launchers against Ukrainian positions in the Sudzhansky district of Kursk Oblast. Claims the strikes were carried out by troops of the Tula Guards Airborne Division.
   • Assessment: The video CONFIRMS the use of Solntsepek, but the location is uncertain. The usage is SIGNIFICANT, as it indicates a HIGH INTENSITY OF FIREPOWER being directed at this area. This REINFORCES CONCERNS about potential Russian offensive preparations in the Kursk Oblast.

8. POSSIBLE HARD LANDING OF A PLANE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • ТАСС (08:13 UTC) reports on the event.

9. POSSIBLE PLANE CRASH AND FIRE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны (08:32 UTC) reports on the event.

Updated Situation Summary

• DENIAL OF SANCTIONS TALKS (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Nabiullina's denial SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERMINES the possibility of near-term sanctions relief and suggests limited progress, if any, in US-Russia relations.
• CONTINUED RUSSIAN AIRSTRIKES (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED/CONFIRMED): Reports of continued airstrikes in Kherson and Sumy Oblasts, with CONFIRMED use of "Solntsepek" thermobaric weapons near Sudzha, Kursk Oblast. This REINFORCES CONCERNS about a potential Russian offensive in the Kursk area.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN KHARKIV OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of continued fighting and claimed Ukrainian losses, including SIGNIFICANT drone losses if true.
• POTENTIAL INCREASED SABOTAGE THREAT WITHIN RUSSIA (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED): Reports of a prevented sabotage attempt in Tavriysk. This requires CAREFUL EVALUATION.
• UKRAINIAN FORCES DESTROYING RUSSIAN ELECTRONIC WARFARE (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):
  • Сили оборони Півдня України (08:39 UTC) reports on the event.
• Assessment: This indicates CONTINUED UKRAINIAN SUCCESS in targeting Russian electronic warfare capabilities.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN CLAIMS OF STRIKES AND ADVANCES (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Deploy intelligence assets (satellite imagery, ground reports, signals intelligence) to VERIFY the reported Russian airstrikes in Kherson and Sumy Oblasts, particularly the use of "Solntsepek" near Sudzha.
   • Confirm or refute the claimed Russian advances in the Kharkiv Oblast and the reported Ukrainian losses, particularly the drones.

2. ASSESS POTENTIAL RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE IN KURSK OBLAST (HIGH PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS):

   • Continue to monitor Russian troop movements and activity in the Kursk Oblast.
   • Evaluate the credibility of claims regarding a planned Ukrainian offensive in Bryansk Oblast, but maintain vigilance.

3. INVESTIGATE REPORTED SABOTAGE ATTEMPT IN TAVRIYSK (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Gather intelligence to VERIFY the reported sabotage attempt and determine the credibility of the Russian claims.
   • Assess the potential for increased sabotage activity in occupied areas.

4. RE-EVALUATE PROSPECTS FOR SANCTIONS RELIEF (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):

   • Reconsider the possibility of near-term sanctions relief on Russia in light of Nabiullina's denial.

5. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES): The denial of sanctions talks and the continued reports of Russian military activity, particularly the use of "Solntsepek," require IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION.

The situation remains EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY DYNAMIC. The CONFIRMED MAJOR RUSSIAN AIR AND MISSILE ATTACK, coupled with the CONTINUED AIR THREAT and POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED SABOTAGE WITHIN RUSSIA, requires IMMEDIATE AND FOCUSED ATTENTION. The reports of TANKER EXPLOSIONS and the BRITISH PEACE PLAN PROPOSAL introduce further COMPLEXITY AND POTENTIAL FOR ESCALATION. The situation DEMANDS RAPID RESPONSE, EFFECTIVE INTELLIGENCE GATHERING, AND STRONG DEFENSIVE MEASURES. The denial of sanctions talks changes the diplomatic landscape and requires adjustments in strategic assessments.