Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 20, 2025, 04:25 UTC

Changes and New Information (03:56 UTC - 04:25 UTC)

1. RUSSIAN "KUB-BLA" DRONE OPERATOR PROFILE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

   • Colonelcassad (04:01 UTC) features a profile of a Russian soldier nicknamed "Ant," chief of a "Kub-BLA" drone unit. The report highlights his civilian background.
   • Assessment: This is primarily PROPAGANDA. The mention of the "Kub-BLA" CONFIRMS THE CONTINUED USE of this loitering munition system. LOW DIRECT MILITARY SIGNIFICANCE.

2. RUSSIAN TANK AND ARTILLERY OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (04:05 UTC) reports a Russian T-82B3 tank crew destroying a Ukrainian dugout on the Zaporizhzhia front. Also claims Russian artillery from an Msta-S howitzer destroyed a Ukrainian strongpoint in the Kursk region. Reiterates claims of VDV units advancing near Lebedevka.
   • Assessment: This REINFORCES PREVIOUS REPORTS of continued fighting in the Zaporizhzhia and Kursk regions. The claims REQUIRE VERIFICATION. The reiteration of advances in Kursk Oblast INCREASES CONCERN. HIGH PRIORITY to verify these claims.

3. UKRAINIAN POW TESTIMONY (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE, PROPAGANDA):

   • ТАСС (04:10 UTC) features a video of a captured Ukrainian soldier claiming mass desertions. He describes forced conscription, medical neglect, inadequate training, and deployment near Kupyansk.
   • Assessment: This is likely RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. The mention of deployment near Kupyansk CORROBORATES PREVIOUS REPORTS of fighting in that area.

4. CONFIRMED RUSSIAN MISSILE CARRIER IN BLACK SEA (CONFIRMED, UKRAINIAN SOURCES):

   • РБК-Україна (04:13 UTC) and Генеральний штаб ЗСУ (04:21 UTC) report one Russian missile carrier in the Black Sea with up to 4 Kalibr missiles. No enemy ships are reported in the Azov Sea. Four enemy ships are reported in the Mediterranean Sea, including three Kalibr carriers with up to 26 missiles.
   • Assessment: This CONFIRMS THE ONGOING THREAT of Russian missile strikes. The higher concentration of missile carriers in the Mediterranean is NOTABLE and REQUIRES CLOSE MONITORING. HIGH PRIORITY to maintain air defense readiness.

5. RUSSIAN STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN TRAINING CENTER (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (04:21 UTC) claims a Russian strike on a Ukrainian National Guard special forces training center in Novopetrivtsi, Kyiv Oblast. Claims destruction of training facilities.
   • Assessment: This claim REQUIRES VERIFICATION. If confirmed, it represents a SIGNIFICANT BLOW to Ukrainian training capabilities. HIGH PRIORITY to verify.

6. RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA POST (IRRELEVANT, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • НгП раZVедка (04:02 UTC) posts propaganda.
   • Assessment: No military relevance.

7. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ADVANCE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (04:02 UTC) claims that Russian paratroopers have "liberated" Pyatikhatki.
   • Assessment: Requires verification.

8. RUSSIAN CLAIMS ACTIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

   • Дневник Десантника (04:02 UTC) reports that Ivanovo paratroopers used TOS-1A "Solntsepek" against an enemy temporary deployment point in Chasov Yar. Paratroopers shot down a "Baba-Yaga". A sniper eliminated a group in Chasov Yar.
   • Assessment: Claims require verification.

9. DRONE AND MISSILE ACTIVITY (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

   • Николаевский Ванёк (04:02 UTC) reports that 4 Tu-95ms aircraft are airborne. It claims that one drone is in the Belotserkovsky district of the Kyiv region.

   • Николаевский Ванёк (04:13 UTC) reports a cruise missile towards Balakleya!

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:13 UTC): Missile in the Kharkiv region, heading towards the Dnipropetrovsk region.

   • Николаевский Ванёк (04:14 UTC): another cruise missile at the intersection of the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, in the direction of the Poltava region.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:15 UTC) Missile in the northern part of the Kharkiv region, heading towards Poltava region.

   • Николаевский Ванёк (04:17 UTC): The missile is located in the west of the Kharkiv region.

   • Николаевский Ванёк (04:18 UTC): Two missiles already in the west of the Kharkiv region!

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:21 UTC): Group of missiles in Kharkiv region, moving in a south-easterly direction.

   • Николаевский Ванёк (04:22 UTC): No signs of the missiles.

   • ЦАПЛІЄНКО_UKRAINE FIGHTS (04:25 UTC): All 4 Tu-95ms are still in the Volgograd region, the threat of missiles remains.

   • Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (04:25 UTC): Bila Tserkva - there is an enemy attack UAV in the city area. Stay in shelters!

   • Assessment: Confirms drone and missile threats.

10. RUSSIAN T-90MS INFORMATION (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*    *Colonelcassad* (04:03 UTC) showcases the T-90MS and lists its new ammunition.

*   **Assessment:** Relevant for understanding equipment.

11. TRUMP'S MEDIA OFFENSIVE (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE): * Два майора (04:03 UTC): Claims that Trump's team and Trump himself conducted an offensive against Zelensky in the media and social networks.

  *   **Assessment:** The offensive is confirmed by other sources.

12. UKRAINIAN AIR DEFENSE OPERATIONS (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

*   *AV БогомаZ* (04:04 UTC), *ТАСС* (04:04 UTC) and *ASTRA* (04:06 UTC) report Russian air defense operations over the Bryansk and Crimean regions.
*   **Assessment:** Confirms operation.

13. RUSSIAN STRIKES (REPORTED, RUSSIAN SOURCE):

* *Два майора* (04:07 UTC) claims that last night the Russian Armed Forces carried out a series of strikes on enemy targets in the Odessa region.

 *   **Assessment:** Requires verification.

14. UKRAINIAN INFORMATION (REPORTED, UKRAINIAN SOURCE):

*   *РБК-Україна* (04:10 UTC): A month since Trump came back to the White House.

  *   **Assessment:** Reporting that the negotiation team and scope were broadened.

Updated Situation Summary

• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Russian MoD officially confirms the capture of Sverdlikovo, Kursk region. Reports of ongoing battles and claimed destruction of Ukrainian dugouts and strongpoints REINFORCE CONCERNS about a potential offensive.
• INTENSE FIGHTING IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Reports of Russian advances and ongoing battles.
• CLAIMED RUSSIAN ADVANCES IN MULTIPLE AREAS (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of advances. Require independent verification.
• CONFIRMED RUSSIAN AIR AND DRONE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY, MULTIPLE SOURCES): Reports of KAB guided bomb strikes, kamikaze drone attacks, and shelling in the Kharkiv operational zone. Ukrainian reports of drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure.
• UPCOMING US-RUSSIA TALKS IN RIYADH (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONFIRMED): Lavrov and Ushakov are confirmed to be traveling to Riyadh for talks.
• UKRAINIAN CONDITIONS FOR NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Ukraine maintains its demand for a return to pre-invasion borders.
• POTENTIAL US PEACEKEEPING PROPOSAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, REPORTED, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports suggest the US is considering involving Brazilian and Chinese troops in a peacekeeping mission.
• DISPUTED CLAIMS REGARDING KLEBAN-BYK (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Conflicting reports on the control of the Kleban-Byk landscape park.
• POTENTIAL TERRORIST ATTACK IN KAMIANSK-PODILSKYI (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Reports of an explosion near a TCC, allegedly caused by FSB agents.
• CONTINUED PROPAGANDA AND INFORMATION WARFARE (ONGOING): Multiple reports and images.
• CONFIRMED MISSILE THREAT FROM BLACK AND MEDITERRANEAN SEAS (HIGH PRIORITY): Ukrainian sources confirm.
• CLAIMED STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN TRAINING CENTER (HIGH PRIORITY, REQUIRES VERIFICATION): Russian sources claim.
• CONFIRMED DRONE AND MISSILE ACTIVITY (HIGH PRIORITY): Ukrainian sources confirm drone activity and missile launches.

Updated Recommendations

1. VERIFY RUSSIAN ADVANCE IN KURSK REGION (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): See previous recommendations.
2. ASSESS SITUATION IN POKROVSK DIRECTION (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): See previous recommendations.
3. VERIFY CLAIMS OF CHANGES ON THE MAP (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): See previous recommendations.
4. INVESTIGATE POTENTIAL TERRORIST ATTACK IN KAMIANSK-PODILSKYI (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): See previous recommendations.
5. MONITOR US-RUSSIA TALKS IN RIYADH (EXTREME PRIORITY, CONTINUOUS): See previous recommendations.
6. VERIFY UKRAINIAN CONDITIONS FOR NEGOTIATIONS (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): See previous recommendations.
7. VERIFY CLAIMS OF US PEACEKEEPER PROPOSAL (EXTREME PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION): See previous recommendations.
8. VERIFY STRIKE ON UKRAINIAN TRAINING CENTER (HIGH PRIORITY, IMMEDIATE ACTION):
   • Deploy reconnaissance assets to confirm and assess.
   • Determine the impact.
9. MAINTAIN AIR DEFENSE READINESS (EXTREME PRIORITY, ONGOING):
   • Maintain high alert status, particularly in areas potentially threatened by missile strikes from the Black and Mediterranean Seas and drone activity.
   • Monitor movements.
   • Coordinate with Ukrainian forces, especially in Kharkiv, Poltava, Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk.
10. ALL PREVIOUS RECOMMENDATIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT (ADJUSTED PRIORITIES).